ValuePickr Forum

VP Cyclicals 2.0: Cement Industry Key Issues & Cyclicality

VP Expert Network
#59

@ayushmit

Shree Digvijay is a case of Good management trying to turn around things.

Couple of things which an analyst can do. Try converting all PL line items into per ton basis.

1.So take Net Sales and divide by per ton produced
2. Divide RM Cost by per ton produced
3. Divide Power Cost by per ton produced
4. Divide Other Expenses by per ton produced

Plot all these numbers over 5-6 qtrs and see where is the profit coming from.

  1. Is a particular line item contributing to profit
  2. Are volumes als contributing.

In my view , in Shree Digvijay most of the profits are coming from Sales Price increase. Is it sustainable (after Corona)

Also where will next leg of growth come from. Co is operating at 98-99% capacity.

So they are sitting on peak sales price, peak capacity utlisation.

As far as limestone is concerned, if we do google searches, we can clearly observe that their limestone mines havent been approved since 15 odd years, The one which they might win is also very small and hardly will suffice 2 years.

Now good things are

  1. Very capable management
  2. Cost levers can be managed and next set of profit growth will come from there.

Disclosure : Not a registered investment advisor

22 Likes
#60

Cracks loom for cement dealers

CRISIL Research conducted a survey of 100+ dealers across 13 states. Notably, trade channels account for ~60% of total annual sales of cement and are, therefore, a vital indicator of the sector’s condition.

Covid-19 to stretch credit cycle, up working capital needs

Key takeaways from the survey

  • Almost all the dealers foresee 10-30% drop in demand in fiscal 2021 due to delay/freeze in construction activity

  • More than 60% respondents have a minimal inventory of 2-4-days, but spoilage is a concern nonetheless

  • The dealers’ credit cycle is likely to get stretched from 4 weeks to 8 weeks over the next 2-3 quarters

  • Working capital requirement is expected to increase 12-17% in a best case scenario, assuming dealers are able to limit operational expenditure, reduce credit sales and infuse additional capital in their business. A probable risk of retailers defaulting on payment dues will aggravate the financial pain

  • Traders are hoping for manufacturers’ support in terms of better margins (higher incentives)

  • Chances of swift resumption to normalcy post the unlocking look bleak because of delay in return of migrant workers and resumption in freight operations

  • Urban centres are likely to fare worse than rural ones given higher dependence on migrant labourer

#61

Shree Digvijay Cement Reports Strong Q4 Numbers : Anil Singhvi

4 Likes
#62

@ashwinidamani

Hi Ashwini ,
What are thoughts on star cement and if you can throw some light as to why the tax outgo for star cement is so low ?

Thanks
Chirag

1 Like
#63

Got this from Shree Cement’s Investors’ presentation and found it useful in understanding the region wise demand-supply dynamics. Will be glad be know views.

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image996×618 171 KB

Regards

7 Likes
#64

Find enclosed my working on calculation of ACC return since listing. It may provide good insight of growth over the years and wealth creation by the company.

1 Like
#65

Just going by pure metrics, Ambuja looks best of the lot. It is Pan-India operator, with strong presence in North and West. Next few years can be interesting.

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image863×316 14 KB

Disc: Not invested in any stocks discussed

Regards
SJ

1 Like
#66

Hi Ashwini,

Star cement in the annual report has repeatedly mentioned proximity to Limestone quarries as a key component of their margins. Considering the positive outlook for Rural demand in the east, is this enough of a Moat for a small player like Star?

Or can biggies like Shree, Ultra tech simply reduce prices to dilute the margins of Star

#68
#69

Shree Digvijay FY20 Annual Report key takeaways:

  • Declared dividend 15% after 33 Years.

  • Reduced debt 40 Cr and now the company is debt free along with a cash balance of 70 Cr.

  • We were also impacted, our operations were closed from 25th March, 2020, as per the lock down directives.

    • We were fortunate that Sikka and Jamnagar did not have many cases and we could start our operations from 10 April.

  • The growth was recorded mainly due to higher market realisation, raw material cost optimization, reduction in overall fuel cost and sustainable plant operations.

  • The Capital investment on energy conservation equipment is 10.97 Cr.

  • EBITDA / Ton increased to 1049 from 296 in FY19.

  • EV / EBITDA stands at 2.18 times.

  • Cement industry is highly energy intensive and 29% of its total expenditure consists of power and fuel costs.

    • At Digvijay Cement, 80% of our requirement for kiln fire is met by Petcoke.
    • In case of increase in Petcoke prices or nonavailability, we use imported or indigenous coal (through e-auction) as the availability of linkage coal is limited.
10 Likes
#70

hello sir,
could you please specify, this data is of which year?

#71

For JK, Ramco and India Cements March results were not out so TTM (Dec 19) and for the others its TTM (March 20).

Regards
Shobhit Jaju

#72

The prices seem to be holding up in June, but that can be attributed to lack of supply due to lockdown. They seem to suggest a 10-12% impact on demand for FY21. I think it will take another quarter atleast to get a better sense of pricing and demand situation for FY21. Link to report: PL Cement June 2020

Regards
SJ

2 Likes
#73

Shree Digvijay Cement at current price of Rs.58 is trading at Mcap of 815 Cr. It has debt free BS and 74 Cr of Cash & Cash equivalents. Hence, at EV of 741 Cr its trading at $91, almost at replacement cost.

1.07 Million tons capacity trading almost at replacement cost with BS size of only 400 Cr.
For FY20 its EBITDA/ton of 1027 which is gold standard in the industry and limestone lease already an overhang, I feel stock is extremely overpriced especially when you have larger players with growth visibility trading much cheaper!

Other views welcomed
Disclosure: Not invested

6 Likes
#74

Has anyone attended Shree Digvijay AGM today and can post the takeaways?

Would be very-2 helpful.

Thanks & Regards

#75

SOME LATEST REPORTS ON CEMENT SECTOR


#76

Hi Aashav, the $91 dollar calculation isn’t absolutely correct. The company will incur a CapEx to increase it’s capacity by 75% to 100% in a year or two funded mostly via internal accruals.

Also, recently the company has announced that they have incorporated a subsidiary Digvijay Logistics, which means that they will soon get the license to operate the Jetty that they have to handle third party logistics and will also help them import coal and other raw materials which will aid the margin.

Above mentioned plans will change the valuation of the company especially for a strategic buyer. Also now since a couple of quarter they are able to maintain an EBITDA of Rs.1100+ per tonnes which is exceptionally for such a small plant.

Considering this I think there is still an upside of 75% to 100% from the current market price of 47.

Disclosure: Invested.

#77

Hello, where have the co. officially informed about the CAPEX? I am not aware of any communications from their end.

Any meaningful capex for a cement co. would be 1 Mn ton and that would cost around 500-700 Cr. But co. has around 75 Cr of cash & equivalents. How can they fund entire capex from internal accruals?

#78

Hi Aashav, the chairperson of the company had communicated that in the annual general meeting.

As you rightly mentioned that even a million tonne plant would take about 750 crores but he company has basic infrastructure ready in place, they will not need to shell out the entire 750 crores.

The chairperson said that they would not shy to take debt to incur the CapEx but largely the requirement will be met by internal accruals.

Disclosure: Invested.

1 Like
#80

I was going through the recent quarterly results of Ambuja Cement but couldn’t figure out how did they arrived at the net sales value with the realization & sales volume. The sales value is not equivalent to the product of realization & sales volume

Ambuja results

Can anyone help me figure out how is the above sales value derived from realization & sales volume