Apologies for the delay!
Excellent and very detailed transcription by Aman!
It was truly an enriching experience, and I am definitely gratified for the opportunity to participate despite my initial inhibitions of being a greenhorn and not yet deserving of a seat at the table of stalwarts!
Thanks to Donald for being patient and helping to realise the importance of a small-time guy like me
Day 1: It was all about getting to know the people behind the online avatars. What stood out was the humility of the seniors and enthusiasm of fellow juniors. The introductory sessions from the new members in the first half showed the variety of investing styles and encapsulated the adage that âone size does not fit allâ.
The second half, brought out the democracy within the community as we discussed various ways to improve the forum for members, and raise the quality even further. Everyone had a say, senior and junior members and we were able to come up with certain measures to achieve the stated aim.
Day 2:
Donald started the day with a big bang - âSelf-Reinforcing Modelsâ. The biggest takeaway for me from this presentation was to understand the âCAUSAL relationship between the MOVING partsâ. This definitely makes me rethink how I go about understanding a business, not just with reference to a âself-reinforcingâ virtuous circle, but with all companies.
The opportunity to present an idea and get quality feedback was invaluable and is probably once in a lifetime opportunity (especially if I do not make the cut next year as Donald has forewarned!). As with others, the question of Terminal Value for the business stumped me. But more importantly, the chance to discuss further on it in informal sessions with the Gurus such as over meals was just as insightful and a window into their thought processes.
Insights from Gurus:
- Crossing the Chasm depends on the weakest vulnerabilities and how they can be overcome.
- Finance Companies: Culture of PRUDENCE is paramount.
- Opportunity size alone is not good enough. Companyâs execution ability to capitalise on it is what counts in the end.
- Investing Philosophies can be broken down into 2 types:
- Mean Reversion: Graham and Dodd plays. Timing is crucial.
- Momentum: NOT to be considered as a dirty word (due to connotation with Technicals). Think in terms of fundamental momentum. Rather than do 50x, do 6x by averaging UP.
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Morality of a business: One should ask the question - âWill I buy this product/service as a customer?â If a business is not good for society, it is ultimately a BAD business. An important point in the context of longevity and disruption(more susceptible to substitution).
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Position Sizing: No matter how confident u are about the company, one should always manage risk by ensuring no stock goes beyond a threshold (which differs individually)
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Age as Context matters. What someone does when they are young would not do the same thing when they are older.
Day 3:
An excellent session by Abhishek and Anil on âFailure Patternsâ, following on the session by Krishnaraj on Accounting Red Flags. It was also the day where the sessions were interlaced with debates which were sometimes hotly contested but it is through these debates that one gains the most knowledge as you see the gears and levers in the mind working as the seniors and Gurus put forth their arguments.
It also gave me the biggest chamka moment - âDisruptionâ an excellent session from Prof. Bakshi. This along with Donaldâs âself-reinforcingâ loops are the newest toys to be added to my toolkit. Now, when I look at a business, one of the first questions I am asking is - âhow liable is it to be disrupted?â
@basumallick had shared a point about very few businesses have withstood the test of time - for millennia. One which I can recall right now is liquor.
Aveekâs session on SEBI was just as fun as it was insightful and gave clarity.
Hitesh Bhaiâs sharing of his experience was a bonus especially for the new members who were not there last year.
Insights from Gurus:
- Reciprocity Principle: KARMA is a *****. Take care of your ecosystem, which includes suppliers, dealers, distributors, customers.
- Donât mistake a LONG cycle of 8-10 years as a secular growth phase.
Day 4:
Ayushâs session was the highlight as he shared his experiences on the journey of some of his biggest winners - Shilpa, Avanti and Poly Medicure, and how he held them for many years.
Amanâs session on Emerging Themes and Trend-spotting was very good and his presentation was an excellent collection of the possible trends in the future.
From Prof. Bakshi:
Alternate Histories: a Helpful tool to evaluate decisions by management given a different set of conditions. It really makes you ask a different set of questions and think of alternate scenarios.
I have tried to post the points which have not already been highlighted earlier in the above posts. Overall the experience exceeded an already high level of expectations and I definitely received the âvalueâ for my money.