ValuePickr Forum

VP CHINTAN BAITHAK GOA 2015: Kiran Dhanwada: INVESTMENT JOURNEY/PHILOSOPHY

Let’s continue the Investment Journey series.
Time to introduce the thinking patterns of a trio of very successful young Turks at VP - Dhwanil Desai, Omprakash, and Kiran Dhanwada.

Another stellar thinker, Kiran is maturing very fast as can be seen from his very crisp presentation.
INVESTMENT JOURNEY - Kiran Dhanawada - VP CHINTAN BAITHAK - GOA 2015.pdf (435.6 KB)

His combination with Omprakash is that of a Conviction Guy working closely with an original Ideas Guy …and that’s something that we like to spot and encourage :smile: We tend to think the output from complimentary combinations produce stellar results ! [We have been urging Kiran also to devote more energy to BQ dissection/hierarchy]

Over to you folks. Enough food for thought for this weekend?

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Lovely presentation Kiran

Good Presentation…

Will sell if the estimated growth rate of the market is more than 25% CAGR for next 10-15 years
(reverse DCF).

can you explain this point?

The book Expectations Investing might be of help. Meanwhile you can read some highlights in various blogs (E.g. given below)

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Very crispy presentation! I know there is lot of wisdom behind those one liners.

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“Have absolute targets in terms of portfolio value to avoid all kinds of bias (especially envy)”.
Loved this line fits into my thinking :smile:

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Kiran - Very clear articulation

Loved this point

1 question, On selling, I have relied on reverse DCF as well

The problem with this is discount rates, if we take current bond rate as discount rate and extrapolate it out to 5-15 years, wouldn’t it gives us skewed result

What is your approach multiple discount rates and multiple growth rates ?

Thanks all.

@value_investor - I think @Rokrdude link is pretty much it.

@vivekbothra - Mathematical precision was not the point. Broadly, I do a 12% and a 15% discount (no particular science to those numbers) and see where the growth number comes up to be. Anything more than 20-25% cagr, and I am a little skeptical for fresh investment. Holding (due to low avg price bought earlier) is another matter altogether - I am not in the camp of holding is functional equivalent of selling.

Hope that answers your question.