ValuePickr Forum


Let’s continue the Investment Journey series.
Time to introduce the thinking patterns of a trio of very successful young Turks at VP - Dhwanil Desai, Omprakash, and Kiran Dhanwada.

Another stellar thinker, Kiran is maturing very fast as can be seen from his very crisp presentation.
INVESTMENT JOURNEY - Kiran Dhanawada - VP CHINTAN BAITHAK - GOA 2015.pdf (435.6 KB)

His combination with Omprakash is that of a Conviction Guy working closely with an original Ideas Guy …and that’s something that we like to spot and encourage :smile: We tend to think the output from complimentary combinations produce stellar results ! [We have been urging Kiran also to devote more energy to BQ dissection/hierarchy]

Over to you folks. Enough food for thought for this weekend?


Lovely presentation Kiran

Good Presentation…

Will sell if the estimated growth rate of the market is more than 25% CAGR for next 10-15 years
(reverse DCF).

can you explain this point?

The book Expectations Investing might be of help. Meanwhile you can read some highlights in various blogs (E.g. given below)

1 Like

Very crispy presentation! I know there is lot of wisdom behind those one liners.


“Have absolute targets in terms of portfolio value to avoid all kinds of bias (especially envy)”.
Loved this line fits into my thinking :smile:

1 Like

Kiran - Very clear articulation

Loved this point

1 question, On selling, I have relied on reverse DCF as well

The problem with this is discount rates, if we take current bond rate as discount rate and extrapolate it out to 5-15 years, wouldn’t it gives us skewed result

What is your approach multiple discount rates and multiple growth rates ?

Thanks all.

@value_investor - I think @Rokrdude link is pretty much it.

@vivekbothra - Mathematical precision was not the point. Broadly, I do a 12% and a 15% discount (no particular science to those numbers) and see where the growth number comes up to be. Anything more than 20-25% cagr, and I am a little skeptical for fresh investment. Holding (due to low avg price bought earlier) is another matter altogether - I am not in the camp of holding is functional equivalent of selling.

Hope that answers your question.