VJ's Portfolio - Conviction bets

Hi Fellow boarders, can you please comment on my portfolio [information gathered from various platforms]. I am just earning the ropes of direct equity [purely on the basis of industry outlook, and PE].

Name Sector M Cap [B] Portfolio %tage Expected Returns 2019 Actual 2019 FV Target Achieved
Avenues Supermart Retail Consumption 983 62.2 24.1 10 No
AB Capital NBFC 221 6.7 25.4 10 No
Godrej Agro Agro 96 6.2 26.4 10 No
ITC Retail Consumption 3441 5.6 10.8 1 No
L&T Finance NBFC 257 5.2 18.5 10 No
Mahindra Logistics Logistics 37 6.8 28.7 10 No
RBL Bank Bank 243 4.7 26.4 10 No
WIPRO IT Services 1560 0.6 9 2 No
Yes Bank Bank 439 2.1 19 2 Yes - 2019

My plan is to transfer Dmart capital to Reliance Jio - once it gets listed.

Would be helpful and also make easier for fellow boarders, if you can elaborate on the rationale for positive outlook you have for these companies

Dmart - Aggregation, indian consumption story, 85% owned real estate, vendor payment in 10 days resulting in minimum 5% of discount, focus towards cluster based segmentation and that too on lower middle class and mid middle class.

AB Capital - Aditya Birla Group is promoter, one of the largest nbfc with verticals of insurance, broking, wealth management, corporate finance, etc.

Godrej Agro - agri behemoth of future, diversification in internal agri verticals, dedicated R&D, maret leader in domestic PGR, leading player in cotton herbicide, stake in maxximilk, take over of astec lifesciences, working on supply side and demand, once generated, already taken care by Nature’s Basket stores [future consumption player], working on farm to form model,

ITC - retail behemoth, indian consumption story, good dividend history, one of the best stocks for hedging, focussing on e-commerce

L&T finance - nbfc play with diverse verticals, pedigree, good dividend history, consistent growth in tooling and bottomline

Mahindra logistic - 3pl play, pedigree, 477 clients, 50% business from non mahindra clients which is increasing, working on organic as well inorganic growth by means of acquisitions of porter, tech backend from shipx, freight forwarder lords freight,

RBL Bank - future yes bank, consistent growth in net profit, branches, consistent decrease in npa, employee friendly compared with peers

WIPRO - 3rd largest it services provider, philosophy of client retention compared to client acquisition, ethical management/governance/culture compared to peers,

Yes bank - no need of giving rationale

I am only talking about Avenues Supermarket
I am not big fan of retail However if one has production of scale to be low cost producers of the Goods and is front runner among the pears than we can think about investing in that scenario in any retail company .
How fast the inventory getting turnover and what is the cash Conversion cycle .Every retailer has dream to get the cash fast and want to pay to it’s supplier as slow as possible .So to have some homework You may need to find these CCC / Inventory Turnover
Cash from Financing Activity Proceeds from Shares in 2017 ->1840.62 Which very Huge apart from No History of dividend payout is negative for me .Low entry .Retails always have very Narrow Moats if at all exists .
Last 4 years Inventory Turnover with in range 15-16 Which is Good .
Generally retailers works on very thin margins .
so my quest if any with investing will remain same will this for next 10 years
Company has history of Issuance of Commercial papers which is an unsecured, short-term loan used by The company . Company does not provide any reasons for that but i guess it may be for financing accounts receivable and inventories. It is double edged
In every business especially in Retail Consumer is the Key i found a couple of complaints

Whish is not encouraging in long run so have so much exposure may prove to be fatal
I am not invested and I am not any sebi approved analyst

You have listed reasons for the stock to give your expected returns. Now you must think about the risks that may foil your expectations and be prepared for that. For example, Dmart is facing threat to its lowest cost retailer moat. Are you prepared for that risk with such high concentration in Dmart?

@Divyanshu_Bagga @yourraj slowly at every uptick - I am selling Dmart and buying in my exiting portfolio