Vivek Gautam Portfolio

A good must watch video

Reasons:

  1. I was wrong. (misjudged MOAT etc)
  2. Accounting irregularities
  3. Mega acquisition that I don’t like
  4. Thesis complete but no room to grow
  5. Cultural deterioration, exec turnover
  6. Extremely high valuation (how big it vs how big it could be)
  7. Too big in my portfolio, >15%
  8. lost interest in the company
  9. got acquired and I don’t want to invested
  10. want to spend on personal life
  11. tax loss harvesting
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A good video where CEO Sanjay Purohit explains nicely the business at Sapphire performance namely A young company whose performance over last 4-5 years is much better then older established rivals with a pedigree of 15-20 years, focusing on common kitchen making it a differentiator catering to all 3 Dine In, take away & delivery , reducing store size yet retaining the top line growth, Huge opp size, hygienic food vs abundance of street food In India laden with transfats, good well educated mgmt,

Explained the reasons of placement also in August 21 at lower price.

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Not convinced with their reasons to do IPO at double the cost in such a shot span. Flat listing explains that as Market is a big leveler. Also, their good growth was because of consolidation of 8 franchisees into Sapphire. Still last 4-5 years, execution looks good.

Having said above, what option do we have as retail investor when it comes to IPO pricing and listing…I started a tracking position here as I do not see much differentiation than rest and growth ahead, without any more consolidation option, would be more or less similar to sister company (I maybe wrong here).

PE control maybe better though…

Does Yum directly own any equity in Sapphire foods?

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Hi Vivek, are you adding to Spandana Spoorthy currently? The stock trades at almost book value and sooner than later the management issue should be resolved.

no. dont track the co. wary of entire sector

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Purely for record keeping purpose returns for Calendar year 2021 are nearly 90% and best ever for me.

Remaining optimistic & staying fully invested through worst times & betting good qty on quality founder led small & midcaps for long helped IMHO.As did the extraordinary liquidity gush provided by central banks world over.

Would be happy with far less returns in 2022.

Tks to almighty & everyone here on this wonderful forum

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hi @Vivek_6954 Do you mind sharing high level PF constituents now ?

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Wow Vivek, thats awesome…But some credit has to be given to the current bull run, even an average bloke like me generated 125% last year but the impetus was due to the current bull run

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That’s absolutely awesome. Heartiest Congratulations.

Do you plan to take some cash out or do you plan to stay fully invested? Any new ideas that you’ve found to be interesting off late?

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Tks a lot. Would stay put.

Have been sharing my picks & recent entry here & in relevant threads easily pickable by interested VPers.

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Hi Vivek are you adding to Nykaa and CarTrade given the corrections or do you think there’s more downside coming?

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No.

Ipos getting the reality check. Best returns are made in bear mkt ipos.

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https://archives.nseindia.com/corporate/SAPPHIRE_11022022145640_SFILPressReleaseandInvestorpresentationQ3.pdf

Devyani Int
Q3 Revenue - 624 Cr.
Margin - 24%
PAT - 63 Cr
Market Cap - 21500 Cr.

Sapphire Foods
Q3 Revenue - 505 Cr.
Margin - 23%
PAT - 51 Cr
Market Cap - 9500 Cr.

Discl Invested & bought more today post nos

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Views invited on Vedanta fashion supposedly the Titan of apaarel sector both focussing on wedding sector having huge opp size.

enclosed is the pre ipo analyst meet & recent PPT post last qtr results

MANYAVAR_02032022164436_MANYAVAR.pdf (5.7 MB)

discl- have an tracking position

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IIFL has recently started coverage on Manyavar.
Vedant Fashions (VFL) has a unique business model in apparel
retail, in that its EBITDA margin is +30% and ROIC is ~40%. In
terms of growth, returns, industry construct and consumer profile,
VFL’s model is similar to Titan’s in jewellery retail. VFL is well
poised for growth by scaling up its dominant position in the branded
men’s wedding & celebration wear segment via brand Manyavar,
while also incubating brands such as Mohey, Manthan and
Twamev for future growth. We forecast sales/EBITDA/EPS Cagr
of 15.1%/17.3%/19.8%, respectively, over FY20-25ii. We
initiate coverage on VFL with a BUY recommendation.
A unique model in apparel retail: VFL has consistently clocked EBITDA
margin of 30%+ (pre Ind-AS), which is significantly higher than that of
indigenous apparel retail companies such as ABFRL, Trent and V-Mart,
among others, whose margin profiles are sub 10%. Despite higher working
capital requirements than peers, VFL’s ROIC is ~40% vs. less than 30% for
other apparel retailers. We believe that VFL’s business model has many
similarities with Titan’s in jewellery retail – large unorganised segment,
dominant player within branded, high growth & return profile, similar
customer profile, a franchisee-driven model, etc.
Poised for growth: Within the men’s wedding & celebration wear space,
Manyavar has ~10% market share, but its market share within the branded
space is 42%. We believe there is ample room for growth via increasing
store footprint (currently at 578 EBOs), outfitting more weddings in India,
growing the number of pieces sold per wedding as well as catering to
celebration occasions other than weddings. With brands such as Mohey,
Manthan and Twamev, VFL is incubating growth levers for touching future
horizons. Its technology & data-driven approach since initial years should
continue to aid in managing a robust return profile.
Initiate with BUY: We forecast sales/EBITDA/EPS Cagr of
15.1%/17.3%/19.8% over FY20-25ii, primarily driven by increase in retail
footprint (10.6% Cagr over FY20-24ii). While the stock is trading at a
premium or at par with other apparel retail stocks, we believe that Titan is
a fairer comparable, given similarities in the two business models, growth
and return profiles. We value VFL at 60x FY24 EPS, which yields a target
price of Rs1,180; we initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation.

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Hi Vivek, how has 2022 been for you so far? Any exciting opportunities you’re adding onto currently?

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I am fully invested . Focus on the stocks in your PF & the check list. If story is intact no point getting disturbed by volatility rather take advantage if one has cash.

If you follows my messages you can get some ideas about my investments.

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Rainbow Children Medicare seems an interesting IPO on listing. Specialized premiumization play on growing pediatrics & obstetrics needs of india. PE annualized 29 odd fy 22 & improving ROCE of 20% having good reputation n track record in Hyderbad & Bangalore.

Enclosed Icici direct report is a comprehensive one. QIB portion was oversubscribed nearly 40 times.

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Any hedges in your portfolio if there’s a drawdown of 30% or higher?

Focus on the stocks in your PF & the check list. If story is intact no point getting disturbed by volatility rather take advantage if one has cash.

Reposting

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