Hi,
My current and target portfolio weights are below. All picks except DHFL have been selected based on valuepickr discussions.
| Current | Target | ||
| 1 | Mayur | 3% | 15% |
| 2 | DHFL | 22% | 12% |
| 3 | Astral | 0% | 12% |
| 4 | Atul | 12% | 8% |
| 5 | GRP | 14% | 8% |
| 6 | Kaveri Seeds | 12% | 8% |
| 7 | Muthoot Cap | 13% | 7% |
| 8 | Unichem | 0% | 6% |
| 9 | FDC | 6% | 6% |
| 10 | Alembic | 3% | 6% |
| 11 | Nesco | 9% | 6% |
| 12 | Sree Sakthi | 5% | 4% |
Pls comment on the choice and weights.
Thank You
Vinod
As you mentioned a lot of the stocks in the portfolio are valuepickr favourites and no need to say much about them. A few comments I have are:
1). Dhfl has been having nap and margin contraction issues which have been a drag on the profits. There were some recent report about manipulation in the stock which has been a big dampened on the stock performance. The stock may continue to underperform in a weak market.
2). Nesco is for very patient investors. Due to very conservative nature of the management, growth has been missing and in a market where a lot of growth stocks are available at a reasonable valuation, this stock may continue to languish.
Thank You Hemant,
You have raised some very valid concerns. When I entered the DHFL stock it didnt have the manipulation issue, since nothing concrete came out and it looked more like a romour I stuck around.
DHFL grew last few years through aquisitions of small cos like BHW Home finanace etc, hence the lower growth noe. But I saw good work on the ground in terms of recruitment, branch setup and also increase in business from tier-2 towns.
I personaly beleive that there is lot of scope for at least 3 large NBFCs in the home loan sector. I am quite bullish about a revival in priceonce thereal estateand interest rate cycle turns for the good. With the prepayment penalty taken off I see good growth through refinance too from existing customers of bigger players. I will track this very closely.
Forgot to add that I missed out mentioning the cash component in my portfolio. At present I am 40% on cashand the target portfolio weights will be reached only thru fresh deployment of cash and not through selling any existing holding.
Thank You
Vinod
hi vinod,
stock selection seems good. DHFL has some concerns priced in but for something to occupy more than 10% of my portfolio I have to be absolutely certain about most of the things in the company.
regards,
hitesh.
Hi Vinod,
What do you look for as entry price in Astral ?
Vinod.
Hi Hitesh Bhai,
Thank you for your encouragement, most picks are heavily influenced by your views on those stocks. Will examine DHFL further.
Hi Vinod,
I am trying to answer your query myself, but kind of sure that current levels do no offer adequate margin of safety.
Cheers
Vinod
Hi,
New look portfolio. Last 3 are short-term bets. Kaveri avg price is 917. Boughtback some Mayur at 380. The ones in red - target % aquisition pending.
| 1 | Kaveri Seeds | 17% |
| 2 | Astral | 10% |
| 3 | Mayur | 7% |
| 4 | DHFL | 7% |
| 5 | GRP | 7% |
| 6 | Atul | 7% |
| 7 | Muthoot Cap | 6% |
| 8 | Techno Elec | 6% |
| 9 | Ajanta | 3% |
| 10 | FDC | 3% |
| 11 | Sree Sakthi | 3% |
| 1 | Kilburn Eng | 1% |
| 2 | Axis Bank | 7% |
| 3 | South Indian Bnk | 7% |
Sorry, “red” is not red here :). Ajanta, Astral and Mayur has some buying left. Balance 19% cash.
The current portfolio based on CMP of stocks.
| Company | Allocation | |
| 1 | Kaveri Seeds | 16% |
| 2 | Dishman Pharma | 12% |
| 3 | DHFL | 10% |
| 4 | Atul | 9% |
| 5 | Mayur | 9% |
| 6 | Unichem | 8% |
| 7 | Axis Bank | 8% |
| 8 | Shasun Pharma | 5% |
| 9 | Sree Sakthi | 3% |
| 10 | Kilburn Eng | 1% |
| Cash | 20% |
Interested in Indag, Narmada gelatine, Yes Bank and Mazda.
Trimmed Kaveri due to runup. Traded in Mayur selling at 420 and buying back at 400 (worthless exercise, thankfully did not cause a negative impact). Exited Techno electric and Ajanta.
Best performers so far this year in order - Mayur, Atul, Kaveri, Dishman, Axis, Techno electric. Sree sakthi is like a bond with 8% div yield. Kilburn at 0.3 times BV could be the joker of the pack.
Looking forward to Sahsun, DHFL and Unichem delivering.
Cheers and Thanks to everyone for the tremendous collaborative effort and knowledge sharing.
Special thanks to Hitesh Bhai
Vinod M S
Hi Vinod,
You seems to have sold your 10% Astral, which is bit puzzling to me.
Also puzzled by your decision to reduce Kaveri at CMP (I added a big chunck of Kaveri today).
At a 30% y-o-y EPS growth, and PE of 18, it should double in 2 year time frame 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.2 ~ 2.0 . Seems to me a solid buy for me at CMP with expected price CAGR of 40+% (35% in conservative side).
Hi Subash,
I could never buy Astral though I was mighty impressed with the management and their bus model. I had mentioned it in my “target” portfolio in the initial post.
From the initial list I have sold Muthoot, Ajanta, Techno, FDC, Alembic, GRP and Nesco. Muthoot and Ajanta exits were fundamental calls. The others’ selling decisions were more on my feeling that opportunity cost could be high with better opportunities coming around.
Looking forward to add back GRP in due course.
Thank You
Vinod
Subash, agree with you completely that Kaveri is very strong and hopefully will do better than all other stocks in my portfolio since I still have the highest allocation to it at 16%.
Kaveri trimming decision was based on overexposure to it at 22% of the portfolio. Infact this decision was difficult and Hitesh Bhai’s advice helped.
I agree that no stock should be so large in your portfolio that it affects your sleep 
Thank You again
Vinod
Hello,
Is it advisable to add any of the stocks in your portfolio at current CMP
Hi Nelson,
I think Unichem, DHFL, Shasun and Dishman (in this order) are still attractive. Please read the thread on DHFL to see if you can convince yourself, others are solid pharma bets with Unichem and Shasun forming part of Hitesh Bhai’s portfolio too.
Cheers
Vinod
Hi Vinod,
Are you still holding SouthIndianBank? Last quarterly result had an additional item of about 35 cr loss. Please update if you have some information. What is your conviction level in this stock?
Thanks,
Hi Sajit,
I had exited after the results. The only stocks that I own are mentioned in the last update. Apart from those I am interested in Yes Bank, Narmada Gelatine, Mazda Ltd and Ramco Industries.
Cheers
Vinod
Thanks Vinod. One other stock I am interested in your portfolio is Atul; I believe this is Atul Ltd (not Atul auto). This company has given stellar results in the last 2 quarters and has already doubled in the last one year. I am holding this for more than an year and and so far the journey is good. What is your opinion on this?
Thanks,
Hi Sajit,
No mine is Atul Auto, sorry for the confusion.
Congrats on your good returns on Atul Ltd. I dont know much about that com.
Taken entry positions in Mazda Ltd at 132 and Narmada Gelatine at 150.
Also bought back Ajanta at 169, another trading bet supported by Hitesh Bhai’s chart reading. I also like the fundamental story and is inclined to believe that the tax issue wont be that detrimental especially since promoters bought at these levels. Could very well be a medium term pick.
Cheers
Vinod
