I update the PF here whenever I get the chance actually. I woidk want to be a lot mkre regular than I am. I do update it monthy on Twitter.
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what about the valuation of marine electricalsā¦?
Itās very expensive given that theyāre now not likely to do much higher than 25% Cagr over the next two years. I sold it after Q3 results.
PF update for Feb 2024
Finally the much awaited volatility has arrived. Iāve tried to use this to deploy some cash flows that I had recently. Expecting some more cash flows in March and April. Lucky timing I guess!
I continue to concentrate my top 7-8 holdings with over 70% of the PF. Have had some churn at the mid and bottom end of the portfolio.
10%+
Sunteck Realty
3B Black Bio
Caplin Point
7-8%
Kalyani Cast Tech
Ugro Capital
Neuland Labs
PDS Ltd
4-6%
Geekay Wires
Techno Electric
Ducol Organics
2-3%
Phantom Fx
IZMO
Hindustan Oil Exploration
Shilchar Tech
Vadilal Industries
<1%
Godawari Power
Iām looking to scale Techno to the 7-8% bucket at least, and will be adding slowly while it falls. May scale HOEC to 4-5%. Want to scale Godawari aggressively if it corrects meaningfully.
Took profits this month from Marine Electricals, Coastal Corp and PropEquity, and sold out of NR Agarwal at a 5% loss, mainly as I saw better risk reward in adding to other positions.
My sense is that the markets will remain volatile till the elections. Weāll have sharp pull backs and drawdown, and will get opportunities to add to our favorites. The question is whether one are brave enough to buy consolidation/ correction. I solve for this buy almost doing an SIP of sorts on red days.
This is not advice. I am not sebi registered. My risk tolerance may be very different from yours. My analysis may be completely wrong. Please do your own research.
Posted this update to X on the evening of 29th Feb
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Hi @Vineetjain111 , what do you think of Geekay Wires at this juncture ? Top link growth has almost stagnated with margins falling down q-o-q. Yearly margins looks like theyāve peaked.
Do you find the valuation comfort to hold this ?
Hi @AlokMoghe, you are right. And the fact that their capex plans for the year are a bit unclear. You would have noticed that I have reduced my position in Geekay by a few percentage points precisely for this reason. But then I am reluctant to sell out completely at this stage, given that it is still cheap compared to most other wire companies at 12 times trailing earnings, and they have an excellent track record of execution.
In the AGM they had spoken about a 10cr capex for the year, which didnāt reflect on the balance sheet in assets of CWIP till September. I am hopeful that some of it will start showing up by the end of this FY. This has been one of my biggest winners in the last 12-18 months and I have already booked profits worth many times the size of the present position. I am happy to hold on to a mid to small position till more clarity emerges on capex.
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Sunteck Realty has been butchered in this small-cap and mid-cap fall. I feel the current price is a reasonable level to enter in. I will wait for their March 2024 quarter results before taking any action. Did you cut your stake in Sunteck Realty?
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I added aggressively in fact. It is my lasgest holding now, and my average price is up to late 200s.
Btw it has not been butchered any more than most small caps - about 20% from the recent top.
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https://x.com/VishalBhargava5/status/1769994408617820198?s=20
Any views on this? He is predicting oversupply situation in Mumbai housing market.
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This has been a concern of Vishalās for some time now, but I think its very micro-market dependent. In my view this is largely true in Western Suburbs, Parel-Dadar stretch, Navi Mumbai and to a ceetain extent Thane. And a lot of the oversupply comes from non-branded builders.
The strength of the demand is still very strong and will likely remain strong. Sunteckās micro-markets are slightly off beat and should do ok I think.
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The company has not yet disclosed the pre-sales numbers. They are doing an investor meeting tomorrow where they might disclose some information regarding pre-sales and collection. Need to watch the price movement closely tomorrow.
Sunteck Realty Ltd could be on the backfoot thanks to delays in its new tower at Mira Road.
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Nothing to write home about in the price action for the moment, positive or negative. I donāt think think they would have disclosed pre sales numbers at the meet. I think the Q4 pre sales of 678cr is decent, albiet slightly lower than the projection. Lower collections is not ideal, and hopefully will pick up in Q1. Will have to be tracked.
Iām most interested in whether the Naigaon rveenues reflect in Q4 or if we have to wait for longer. Right now I think the stock will perform when general retail perception improves as it has a relatively low free float, and retail perception deoends largely on reported P&L numbers.
Iām waiting, and adding on dips to 400.
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Hello Vineet, Did you get a chance to meet with the management of Ducol? BTW do you still hold it?
Hey @Amnesiac, sorry for the late reply - coming back after a while. No unfortunately I did not get a chance to speak with the management directly. But i met someone who met the management and they were aware that the capex is pretty close to going live, and it did last week. I continue to hold, itās a small under 5% position.
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Thanks Vineet. I saw the announcement about the capex a few days back.
I tried mailing them with the following questions:
-
Segmental revenue from Wet Dispersions,Dry Dispersions, Master Batches.
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EBITDA margins for Wet Dispersions,Dry Dispersions, Master Batches.
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What will be the total capex cost to ramp up to the 5 year capacities mentioned in the Investor presentation and How do we plan to fund this?
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Timeline of the capacity expansion in terms of Wet Dispersions,Dry Dispersions, Master Batches capacities.
Do you happen to know about any of the above? Do you want me to ask them any other questions or rephrase anything if I get in touch?