I am starting this thread with an intention to track a few macro factors very closely which impact our investment decision. Well perhaps every investor is aware and keen to track the GOLD price, Oil Price and CAD closely but some other important factors might have missed out from their purview like Export Growth, Consumption Growth, Rural/Urban growth/slowdown their historical details, reasons, and impact on GDP and India Inc.
So let me start will latest released data about July Export growth which is currently at 2.25% after a dip of 9.71%. Even though the number comes off a low base and depreciating rupee so not over encouraging but at least has shown some sign of revival. Govt is also able to cut the import growth by 10.4% after a cut of 9.06% in June. Thus helping the trade deficit stand at 13.43% from June numbers of 15.28%. The dip in import growth is mainly due to a 14% price drop-in Oil attributed to a 22.15% drop in India’s Oil import.
But major concern remains in engineering export which has slipped into negative and degrow by 1.69%. This is a real cause of concern since MSME is the biggest employment generating sector of India driven by engineering export growth. So any impact in this sector will lead to consumption slowdown alongside a big anticipated job cut in the auto sector.
Data Reference :-