Top picks, Suggestions are welcome

Respected Investors,

I am not a seasoned investor unlike many members here. Having started investing 3 years ago (at the age of 20), my interest in stockpicking is exponentially increasing each day. Before opening an account on this website i had been a reader on it for quite sometime and all i can say is that this is the best thing i have come across regarding the arena of investment.

Please let me know your valuable thoughts which i much appreciate.

Top Picks (Long term)

1). MCX

2). Amara Raja batteries

3). Prime focus

4). Mayur Uniquoters

5). Coal India

6). NHPC

would suggest you supreme industries , ajanta pharma and astral polytechnik . and from the financial basket yes bank on corrections .

Thank you for your suggestions Mr Ranvir. I have been watching ajanta pharma from some time and am convinced with your pick. However do you think it is cheap at the moment ?

Do let me know your views







DR REDDY ( goign to the the stock of 2013)













these stocks over a period of time if bought when market tank will give bountifuil returns




I don’t agree with the view that amar raja batteries is fully valued. I think the capex undertaken in all its segments is yet to be factored in, I also see margin expansion and a better playout on telecom batteries. I see good scope even from here.

Hi safir,

Good to see your inputs here. Would love to know your best picks at the current moment.



Amar raja


Yes bk

Eicher motors

Mahindra satyam

Icici bk

Bajaj finance

Mnm finance

Financial technologies





Kajaria and



I think most of these are great businesses to own. Dont like the leverage of arshiya and not too much idea about the digitisation companies like den and hathaway.

I want to get into the details of financial technologies. Seems interesting based on its holdings and basic business of ODIN etc.



Safir great picks . Could you give the reasoning behind your stock picks ?

Vivek: at the outset, globalization n it’s uncertainties have taught me to be more diversified than what text books wd have recommended. I have upped th no of stocks to around 22 now and still believe there is ample to get good returns. In between I do introduce upto 3 stocks as trading ideas, which means they are still fundamental calls with atleast a 20 to 30 pct upside but not core. In the present section, I feel arshiya is an underdog that has India’s only free trade zone. I do not personally subscribe to the fear of debt as the business is globally a gestation business but has too many advantages. People wrongly read it to be a logistics or warehousing company while it has a significant focus on value added services. At a pe of 6 contrasted to its growth rate, the stock cd be a multi bagger.

Tv 18 and den are in fact the easiest stocks to understand. Take a monthly cable bill of 200 bucks. Say 8 go to Tv 18 for all its channels. That means a potential of 8 x. 10 cr TV sets (many households have 2 to 3 connections) or 80 crs a month as collection. Over just one year that’s 960 crs. Add the money saved as loading charges that were previously paid and add money saved on interest as co has reduced debt significantly. Numbers talk. Same for den. I suggest one reads the cable amendment act to see what a positive black swan this is.

Amar raja is a co that is continuously growing its market share at the expense of exide by a superior product, better marketing, replacement mkt focus and now capacity expansion and reorientation of its mobile business. The financials are excellent and the co has technology support of Johnson controls. Since battery is a limited life product with a shorte life than a car or a two wheeler, the roll out is better. Same for telecom towers.

Indusind, yes and icici are banks getting their acts right, partly due to renewed focus and partly due to the inefficient way in which psu banks are being run. Empirical evidence has supported a loss of mkt share and profitability and the emergence of a new leader whenever govt opened sectors to private sector. I like and own hdfc bk too but feel these banks are growing more aggressively now. Icici is just getting its act together under Chandra ko char and shd get a better valuation including when insurance opens up.

Mah satyam is a co that is energized post the tech mah takeover. Not only is the telecom industry improving or reviving in the world, the integration of mah satyam and tech m brings a better variety of services to the new entity.

Rural india or Bharat as it is called is the reason for mnm finance being a star performer. Bajaj fin also falls in this benefit.

Wockhardt has emerged out of a crises better than a magician pulling a rabbit out of his hat. With virtually no debt now and a complete focus on its operations including the USA business, the co is in a situation where I feel high growth will recur for some years and pe expansion will follow. It is still one of the cheapest pharma cos.

Mcx and ft are again obvious stories on their new exchange and the resolve with courts. Jignesh is a real smart promoter and having sorted this mess with sebi, the co is getting a very positive response to its several exchanges. If you just look at the recent price NYSE got, it is just an awakening of the potential that this sector may hold.

Kajaria and whirlpool are basking in consumption booms.

A small caveat: I own these stocks way cheaper but have added even recently. I see a secular rally in these companies if one holds them for long. As you may see from my tweets (@safiranand), I have repeatedly tweeted since 4700 to buy individual stocks ignoring the noise. I still endorse that while mkts may go one way or the other a disciplined approach to good companies will be extremely enriching.

All the best.

Cogent reasoning explained in a simple manner . Thanks Safir

Excellent reasoning and thought clarity, Safir bhai! Thanks a lot for sharing this.

You’ve written **“globalization n it’s uncertainties have taught me to be more diversified than what text books wd have recommended.”**Could you please elaborate it a bit more? sharing of any particular incident/experience which motivated you for this approach would be really helpful for guys like me who believe in concentrated approach since its paying good as of now but definitely wants to learn potential pitfalls or cautions from experienced person like you instead of learning by own mistakes.

good reasoning on all stocks however quantum of debt in case of Arshiya is a deterent to me…here i agree more with Hitesh bhai.

Hi Safir,
Welcome to Valuepickr
Interesting set of stocks you have chosen, inadditionto being vogue they also are backed by good fundamental rationale
you would be surprised to know that I am a backer of Wockhardt story since 2009 and still hold it
here is a TED thread where I did a crude NAV of Wockhardt back in June 2010 when it was quoting at 135-140 levels
You being a backer of TBZ it would beinterestingto know you opinion on PC Jewellers as well? (got listed yesterday)
PC is the second largest listed jewellery retailer after Titan with highest margins amongst the jewellery retailers
Owns 30 large format stores >5000 sq ft in north India and plans to add 20 new stores to become a pan India player
Crisil report on PC Jewellers
I am posting a table comparing the 4 listed Jewellers to highlight the standing of PC
Profitability/Ratios (%) PCJ TBZ Thangamayil Gitanjali Titan
EBIT margin (3-yr avg.) 10.1 6.7 8.6 9.0 8.7
PAT margin (3-yr avg.) 7.7 3.0 4.3 5.0 6.1
RoE (3-yr avg.) 54.4 38.1 42.5 35.0 39.0
RoCE (3-yr avg.) 43.1 25.5 32.6 32.0 57.0
No doubt it has the best profitability ratios in the Industry
If you look at the momentum in the financials for the last 5 years it clearly indicates that they are doing something right which provides them edge over other players
Particulars FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 H1FY13
Total operating income (Rs mn) 3214 6241 9859 19772 30419 18557
EBITDA margin (%) 6.8 9.6 10.0 9.9 10.9 12.6
Adjusted net profit / (loss) (Rs mn) 130 310 665 1453 2313 1413
Adjusted net margin (%) 4.0 5.0 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.6
RoCE (%) 26.2 30.9 35.3 53.3 40.7 NA
RoE (%) 40.1 55.1 53.1 57.8 52.5 NA
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 5.9 14.0 16.6 32.5 17.3 NA
No. of equity shares (mn) 22.2 22.2 40.2 44.7 134.0 NA
Net worth (Rs mn) 389 727 1778 3254 5560 NA
Debt-equity ratio (x) 1.4 2.9 0.5 0.4 1.0 NA
in the first half of FY13 they did a profit of 140 crores, generally the first half contributes 40% of the profit now assuming that 60% of profit would come in the second half (1.5x of H1) i.e. 270 crore the FY13 profit comes to 350 Crores which says that it is quoting at a P/E of 7.6 times earnings (on current market cap of 2670 crores).
this is a 60% discount to what a smaller player like TBZ is quoting at.
The issue here is that a third of PCJ's revenues comes from less profitable exports segment and that is the reason why markets are a bit confused as to which bucket they should assign it in terms of valuation. Over a course of next few quarters PCJ would fall either in the category of TBZ/Titan (P/E> 20) or that of Gitanjali (P/E of 7).
Management has clearly indicated that going forward they are going to focus on the retail business.
PCJ is more comparable to a retailer than an exporter. Gitanjali has its own issues in terms of a large part of revenue coming from exports to its less profitable franchisee model
as well as its smaller store format is far inferior to the large format of PCJ, Titan or TBZ.
I think it is just a matter of time before the market recognises its true value and assign it multiple it deserves.
I agree that QonQ delivery would be veryimportantfor the rerating. Looking at the growth momentum of last 5 years and the expansion plans coupled with delivery track record of the current management I think it is very likely thatthe coming4-6 quarters are going to be of more thansatisfactoryperformance.
  1. Mazda Ltd
  2. Narmada Gelatines
  3. Innoventive Industries
  4. Damodar threads
  5. Banco Products
  6. Hi-tech Gears
  7. Manjushree Technopack
  8. Fluidomat
  9. Asahi Songwon Colors


These are my top pick currently. I mostly look for small/midcap growth/turn-around story, preferably is comparative safer pharma or consumption themed bussiness.

Consumption theme:-

Hawkins - a fairly valued consumption story. Looks quite attractive post resolution of pending issues

La Opala/Cera Sanitaryware/Kajaria/Greenply/Astral:- Glassware, Sanitaryware, Cookware, Tiles, MDF, CPVC pipes are stuffs used by almost every middle class indian homes. Plus these companies are at their prime growth phase, and the great indian middle class driven consumption race is very very far from its end. So make sense in riding these consumption themed script.

I am yet to venture into consumer-finance stocks (financing indian consumptiom boom) like Bajaj Finance, MnM Finance, GRUH Finance, CanFin; but by looking at the bullishness of few seniors, seems to me it make sense to be invested in them.

Media stocks, like Den Network, TV18, TV today, ZEE tv, are also expected to give good positives post digitization. These are also another kind of consumption themed stock, which takes money from your pocket every month in term of subscription revenue.

Psuedo-Consumption theme: Amar Raja/Mayur Uniquoter are two solidly growing psuedo-consumer themed stock. Whereas ARBL is poised to become india’s leading manufacturer of batteries, Mayur needs no introduction at valuepickr

Pharma/Medical related Story:

Growth stock : Ajanta, Unichem, poly medicure

Turnaround stock : Granules, Dishman

Few more stocks I am following but yet to take a position: FDC, Wockhardt, Sequent Scientific, Glenmark

Very Well Said. Safir. Pl start your own thread.

Hi Dhruv,

Among all your picks, I think Coal india is a must-have. This is one company whose own performance have a very strong bearing on the overall performance of our economy. And I am explaining why I think Coal India is a must have.

Think about it, what is that we require the most for putting up a strong growth performance. Its POWER!!! In the absence of power, growth potential cannot be realised. Look at the dismal condition of power in our country. Forget industries, even the consumers arent getting adequate power they need. I think there’s no debating that power has a strong bearing on the GDP growth, and we have to take immediate steps to improve on our performance on power generation.

Now, you may ask that if I am so bullish on power reforms, I should go for NTPC, Tata Power etc. rather than Coal India. Now, the basic problem with our power infrastructure is not lack of generation capacity or lack of transmission network. The root of all the problems behind the troubles faced power sector is adequate fuel supply. While we added decent generation capacity on the hopes that imported coal will stay cheaper, we got stumped when imported coal got quite pricier than the domestic coal. This therefore implies that the focus has to shift back on domestic coal. And as far as domestic coal is concerned, Coal India is the numero uno coal producing company in the country.

While we may complain about government interventions, we must also understand that Coal India will have to be sufficiently incentivised to improve upon its production performance. Private coal mining in India is yet to take off on a meaningful scale, except for captive purposes. And the main reason why Coal scam became a scam in itself, is not because of allocation policy alone…it was because the companies which got the blocks werent able to start production. If they could have started operations, government could have easily explained the reason behind allotting them the mines, by saying that they wanted to spur power sector and provide affordable power. Since the coal production couldnt take off, so there was no question of power being generated, and hence the entire blame fell on the government.

What I am trying to say is that in our country, mining is a very difficult job and it can only be done by a company specialising in it. So all these should ideally lead to Coal india getting all the more prominence in the coming years.

However, Coal India is getting impacted by the uncertainty surrounding coal price pooling. But we need to understand that Coal India is way too crucial a company for our country whose interests can be ignored. So, its very unlikely that price-pooling will do much damage to Coal India. The government wont like to have another Indian Oil to provide subsidies to. So, just as diesel price de-regulation, power reforms is almost certain to happen, and its Coal India which will benefit the most from it.

Hi Vivek,

That is very well justified considering the fact that you’ve looked at it from almost all perspectives. I certainly agree with you over the fact that factors like:

1). Government interventions

2). FSAuncertainties

3). Delay in environment related clearances

factors such as these, although make an investor reluctant to buy coal india, at the same time make it dirt cheap in price compared to the valuation and the future potential it has to offer. The long term growth story of India remains intact and surely power sector reforms hold the key to that.

Moreover, troubled times for a stock (which has potential) is a blessing for a value picker. And coal india, i believe is passing through such a phase. It remains a BUY.