What is the floor price? The announcements say 175 Rs but none of the brokers are allowing below 206.05 Rs. Is the retail floor
price based on the non-retail bids?
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How to know OFS final price of retail investors,cutoff price increased in retail share holders, cutoff price OFS placed orders also not get the OFS,which price place orders and all not understood,cutoff price place the orders means not get the OFS,how to get the OFS for retail share holders ..,Thank you..
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There is a high probability that the market price will drop below the offer price, especially with continuous lower circuits. Therefore, it is better to wait and observe. I don’t understand why the promoter would sell the stake at such low levels, as most companies typically sell at a maximum discount of 5-10%. Given the current trend with OFS and QIP, many stocks typically touch or potentially drop below the OFS price in the near term.
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Times FY 2025 AGM notes
Chairman David Thomas Payne speech:
- Revenues grew by 28% and profits by 54%.
- Growth momentum attributed to focused strategy to expand timex group brads, offer more aspirational domestic and international brands, Engagement enhanced through compelling storytelling and dynamic marketing initiatives.
- The trade channels comprising of distribution, dealers, showrooms was the largest contributor to revenue growth.
- Growth was also supported by expanding the e-com channel, increasing luxury segments sales and tactical marketing.
- Company is focused on analog watches as a core offering. Timex brand remains the primary focus and main revenue driver but anticipate significant growth at entry level from other brands like Helix and TMX.
MD Deepak Chabra Speech :
- Revenue doubled over 3 yrs period and profits went up by 4 times and Market cap grew by 6 times in years. Gained market share in India from 13 to 19 % while industry is growing at 11%.
- For FY 25 the large format stores which includes 42 of our retail stores in 2 formats Timex World( 22) and Just Watches(20) is the biggest sales channel contributing 50% of top line. This channel has grown by 26% last year.
- Ecomm contributed around 32% , it was 7% 3 years back and has grown significantly. IT has grown 31% in the last year.
- OEM business was at 16%, its largely with Aditya ( Allen solly , Peter England , Van huesen) where company makes watches for them from design to after sales is handled by Timex. EOM is done for other brands too like Woodlands. OEM business grew by 43% last year.
- CSD and rest of the business is very small at 2% over all sales.
- License portfolio consists of 15 brands and contributes 30% topline and has grown at 27% last year.
- Smart watches is a smaller business at 4% and grew at 23% last year.
- Ebidta 3 yrs back was 3% and now is at 9%.
- Regional breakdown of sales: North and west at 32% each, south at 28% and east at 8%.
- Sold 3.4 Million watches last year growth of about 14% at volume.
- 28% growth of fy 25 was due to 14% growth on volumes and 14% growth on value (ASP) level.
- Cater through 6000 POS, split as 5000 MBO , 400 Large format stores like shopper stop ,lifestyle etc. 500 CSD and 42 retail outlets.
- Added 8 new airports as POS total now at 12 POS.
- Launched justwatches.com , helix.com in addition to timex.com.
- Average Selling price ( ASP ) : Versace 1.05 Lakh ranging between 80,000/- to 4 Lakhs INR. GUESS at 15,000/-. Timex at 3400/- which was at 1800/- 3 yrs back has seen the largest move. Timex is now stretching to 20,000/- INR at upper limit.
- Fro 38 yrs company never paid any royalty to parent in USA. but starting from 2024 6% royalty for brands manufactured in India.
- Launching Fria for Premium offerings for Women at 10,000/-
- Brand recall : There are three things about brand and the marketing and the branding piece: awareness, relevance, and consideration. based on the survey by company which was done in 2023, awareness of Timex as a brand is amazingly high at 93%. relevance and consideration was low. Confusion about the association with Titan is prevalent.
- Ananya Pandey is chosen for celebrity endorsement.
- Capacity was at 3 million watches per year last year company produced 2.95 million hitting 95% utilisation. In jan 2025 Company invested in capex and now the capacity stand at 5.4 million watches per year.
- Company plans to increase the store count to 300 stores across the 2 formats in next 2-3 years starting from jan 2026.
- Company focus is on watches primarily , jewellery will be around 7% of sales in next 5 yrs. Guess watches are doing well so company would start with Guess jewellery in the jewellery segment. Company will be the first mover in this strategy as W&J concept is not prevalent in India.
- GST on watches is at 18%, company is prepared to act on any changes on this rate.
- Company gets all the brands which our parent company signs for any other part of the world at the same time.
- 2 and half exciting announcements from MD :
- *Launching Aston Martin from October 2025 , global premium brand. License acquired at global level, Parent will launch globally and In India the Indian entity will Launch it.
- Signed up Bhumi Pednekar for Versace as brand ambassador , the ad campaign will start in September 2025.
- Title Sponsor for India Beach Fashion Week, which happens every year or in Goa
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Timex continues to report strong growth and benefit from strong operating leverage. Sharing my research on what is leading to this strong growth for the company-
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Good research & even better efforts to put this all through.
But doesn’t it seem a tad too old, we already being post Q2FY26 ?
Hope you would have gone through the necessary follow-through from recent results & concall, & updated the analysis, with management commentary & reading between their lines.
Would love to read the updated version, if any !
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Thanks for your feedback on research.
The way I look at it is that my thesis does not change with each quarter and thus you have an initial thesis (which is highlight in the initiation) and then quarterly updates on how things are moving in terms of the thesis.
In case of Timex, the subsequent quarters have only confirmed the original thesis and the thesis remains intact and stronger than ever.
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Promoter again sold ~9% of holding, taking the total promoter holding to ~51%,
How do you see it from your experience?
Is it because some big fishes wanted to have decent skin in the game, or promoters anticipate the stock is overvalued and see it as an opportunity, or anything else?
Here are a few pieces to the story -
- In late 2020, Baupost Group acquired a controlling stake in Timex’s global holding company
- Since there was an indirect change of ownership as per SEBI mandate, in Nov 2020, Baupost Group, along with its affiliates, rolled out an open offer for the acquisition of 25.07% of the shares of Timex Group India Limited from the public shareholder to offer them an exit.
- Open offer was made at a price of ~24 a piece but the share price during the tender period in March’21 was ~28 so I am assuming there was hardly anyone sold the shares in this period.
Pre-Offer Ad - Target Iintimation.pdf (5.9 MB)
TIMEX Offer for Acquisition (303.9 KB)
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Timex Group - Q3FY26 Results
Financial Highlights
- Revenue up YoY 26%, EBITDA up YoY 122%
- EBITDA margins improved to 6.8% vs 3.8% last year. Not comparable QoQ as Q3 is weakest each year.
- PBT (before exceptional items) up by 204% (expense of 3.2 crore on account of change in labour law)
- PAT up 65% YoY
9M Performance
Revenue growth of 40% driven by:
- E-commerce growth ~70%
- Traditional channel growth ~25%
Brand-wise growth (9M)
- Timex: +52% (fastest growing brand)
- Guess and Versace: +36%
Other key developments
- Launched Atelier (I like the look btw) and various other models
- Scaled capacity to 10 million watches annual through double-shift model (Q2 PPT mentioned annual capacity of 5-6 million in single shift)
One observable trend is, the company continues to shift sale touchpoints towards defense canteens, while pruning large format and retail. Which seems to be the reason for sharp increase in EBITDA margins (despite Q3 being weakest in terms of margins each FY).
Sales touchpoints (Q3 vs Q2):
- MBOs: 5025 vs 5025
- Large format: 372 vs 376
- Defense Canteen: 675 vs 595
- Retail: 41 vs 42
- Luxury Retail: 178 vs 151
Overall a good set of numbers.
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