Hi there folks, just wanted to know if there is any impact or potential challenges of Trump tariff scenario on this company? Last 3-4 days the price action seem to be not that great which may indicate that there’s some fear. Thanks
ANUP’s export revenue was 46% in the last quarter and the company is targeting to achieve 50% by year-end. Of course, there is likely to be some impact due to the ongoing tariff issues, as they also supply to the United States. If an investor has a long-term perspective on this company, they should not worry about daily, weekly, or even monthly price movements. One should only buy if they believe the stock is at a cheaper valuation and closely track the business performance. Don’t worry about price movements as long as you feel that the growth story remains intact.
Disc - Invested at lower levels
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Thanks a lot, Avinash.
As per Q4 concall - Management has guided for revenue of 900 cr in FY26, with 20% + EBIDTA margin. With 25% tax outflow, PAT turns out to be around 124 cr ( EPS of 60 rupees).
For FY 27 in a best possible scenario company can do a revenue of 1270 cr, i.e. 1200 at 100% capacity utilization of all 3 plants + 70cr from technical service. Leading to EPS of 85 rs.
Even at 40 PE, I believe upside is very limited.
One key monitorable to watch out for is inorganic growth. Management is looking for acquisition to add capabilities. Hopefully it will fructify soon.
Disclosure - invested from lower levels.
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Q4 -may 2025 concall
PERFORMANCE
1…Plant
Ahmedabad: INR 565 crore
Kheda (first full year): INR 143 crore
Mabel Engineers: INR 43 crore
2…Industry
Hydrogen (30%),
Oil & Gas (30%),
Petrochemicals (23%),
Fertilizers (10%),
Others (7%).
3…Product Mix:
Heat Exchangers (65%),
Vessels/Reactors/Columns/Others (35%).
=Kheda plant’s focus is on vessels/reactors/columns
4…EXPORT@54%
US/Canada ~30%,
Middle East (Saudi Aramco, ADNOC) ~50%,
Australia/Nigeria ~15%,
Europe ~5%.
===============
FUTURE GROWTH
1…New products and diversification
A…Critical Equipment Foray: Successfully manufactured & delivered first chrome-moly-vanadium modified material equipment (critical metallurgy) for Indian client; first solid internal equipment (>200MT, single piece) for export customer at Kheda.
B…Clean Room Operations: Restarted titanium equipment manufacturing; further clean room projects underway for complex metallurgies.
2…Anup technical services
=Focus on high-volume, short manufacturing cycle jobs (“large volume play”); launch of Anup Technical Services (testing, health checks, site repairs) leveraging NABL-accredited lab and Mabel’s site capabilities.
=Already executed initial orders; services vertical expected to reach INR 200 crore in 3 years at >30% EBITDA margin.
3…Export Competitiveness:
= India remains cost-competitive vs. China, Mexico, and Europe, especially given recent tariffs and high energy costs in Europe. Management confident that “India still holds a dominant position in terms of being the most competitive country” for their product line.
4…Hydrogen Economy:
=Strong traction in hydrogen (esp. blue hydrogen, i.e., conventional hydrogen with carbon capture).
=Management notes: “when a blue hydrogen project comes up, it’s the conventional opportunity plus the CCU opportunity that comes your way.”
5…Capex
A…Kheda
=Phase 2 under Construction, completion in Q2 and commissioning in Q3
Capacity Utilization: With Kheda Phase 2, expected utilization in FY26 at 75–80%; currently operating at near full utilization without Phase 2.
B…Mabel Engineers acquisition
C…Total Installed Capacity (Post Kheda Phase 2)@ 1200 cr rev potential
: Potential of INR 1,200 crore annual revenue,
D…Long-term Capacity Plan: 2000cr rev potential
a…Kheda master plan for 7 bays (currently 4 after Phase 2), potential revenue of INR 1,000–1,200 crore from Kheda alone;
b…Odhav (Ahmedabad) INR 600 crore;
c…Mabel INR 200 crore;
= Total group potential INR 2,000 crore.
6…Growth guidance
=Ebidta guidance
20% EBITDA margin
=Revenue rowth u
25 % in 2026
=Future Business mix model:
-60% legacy products (>20% EBITDA), -20% high-volume quick-turnaround jobs (~15% margin),
- 20% high-margin services.
Disc…invested since 4 yrs
4 Likes
This has become a recurring pattern with this company. Almost every quarter, just before the results are announced, shares are bought by some relative or related party. I’ve pointed this out earlier in this thread as well.
To me, it seems quite clear that they may have access to information before it’s made public. In my opinion,not sure if this borders on insider trading, and I’m surprised that SEBI or the exchanges haven’t flagged this activity yet.
On the upside for retail investors like us, they haven’t started selling yet but it’s important to monitor them closely once they do. Let’s see how the stock story evolves going forward.
Disclosure - Invested and biased.
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