The Anti-Portfolio

@hitesh2710 Thanks for this wonderful insight Hitesh bhai.

I was wondering what could be the reasons where this rule could backfire, if at all.

Let’s suppose, a current market darling like Laurus Labs starts trading at 50 times earnings. Wouldn’t that involve higher risk, given the higher valuation?

Agreed the overall pharma sector, particularly the API segment has tailwinds in it’s favor, but buying at that kind of a valuation will mean very little margin of safety.

How should one think about this aspect while investing in a current fancy sector? :slight_smile:

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@barathmukhi
The best time to find was when it was not market darling. Now that it got identified, so obviously too much crowd is present in it. The crash may happen or it may not happen. It all depends on what is the earnings trajectory. As long as company meets the expectations high pe will continue. There is no scope for disappointment.

That is why we need to identify before too much expectations have built into price.

So simple thing is to identify another stock like Laurus which is not in fancy but can potentially do well.

I am not saying that laurus will not do well. If laurus reports 800 cr profit and pe goes to 40 stock still has room to double from this price. Can they achieve 800 cr profit? May be yes or may not be.

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Consolidation, shrank the tail end of PF on kind advice of the doctor:
Sold-off SREI, Jain and Spandana, put everything into Kanchi.

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Completely agree with your decision exit all this three stocks.
But what makes you so excited about kanchi kapuram ??
Did you hold Arman financial??

I did hold Arman, but when I bought Spandana I decided to sell off Arman.
Camphor and resins players are covered quite well on VP.
Oriental Aromatics (biggest), Managlam organics (next), and Kanchi.
Kanchi because of 4-5x capacity expansion coming online in 2-3 months time I hope, has been delayed by 3 quarters approx due to covid situation.

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Hello @vikas_sinha, wrt Kanchi Karpooram, credit rating agencies are repeatedly showing ‘Issuer Not Co-operating’ from 2018 onwards although the ROE and CAGR metrics are good. https://www.screener.in/company/538896/

What are your thoughts on these remarks?

I currently do not have a position on this company but finding it interesting considering the growth numbers. Your thoughts would be helpful. Thanks

This is from the post about the same made on Kanchi thread.

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Well, actually, buying Pokarna and Kanchi turns out to be a short-term mistake (1 or 2 quarters respectively), since covid has delayed their expansion plans, points to a deeper underlying issue with execution capability but for micro-caps this factor is baked into the price. :blush:

Further consolidation actions:
Sold off HLE, Diamines and IOLCP.
Substituted with Bajaj Healthcare and Valiant Organics.
Maybe reduce by 1-2 more to get to the 7-8 holdings in PF point.

Reasons:
HLE was almost purely a longish term play, but riding on GMM valuation-gap it soared into bubble zone, wihout any fundamental changes, which will take years to play out. Booked profits. Capacity is being brought online by the GMM buyout of plant in Hyderabad etc.

Diamines was a fluke in retrospect, they have applied for second time for renewal of EC in Nov 2019, not sure of current status. Very little disclosure, sure amines shortage is going to continue till 2023 but will they be able to capitalize on this? Risky to bet for their execution capability even if the competition is Balaji amines. :wink:

IOLCP can be risky since their huge dependence on ibuprofen is not going away in a hurry but competition is ramping up. Not sure of their commentary, keep saying price in range of $15-20, and that is a huge margin to hide actual performance.

Bajaj Healthcare, looks like GARP, they are doing buy-outs and green-field expansions etc. and have decent level of disclosure. Some products might benefit from being used for covid like sanitizer and immunity-boosters and benefit from ADD etc.

Valiant Organics, finally back again into the Aarti family of companies :slightly_smiling_face:. Like their approach to integrate and dominate their verticals. Tailwinds sector again. Maybe bit expensive to be GARP though.

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I am initially attracted toward your portfolio because of your high concentration on my 2 favourite sectors.

According to me only 2 sector having capability to generate sustainable and longterm compound returns are pharma and nbfc specially microfinance companies.

But I see you are moving away from microfinance companies and diversifying into miscellaneous stories. Please share your thoughts here.

Disc. :- Arman and credit access gramin are 45% and alembic pharma 30% of my PF.

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Hi Kuldeep,

Yes, Spandana or Ujjivan are still on my watch-list. Maybe selling Arman was a mistake, it happened only after buying Spandana, I lost focus and decided to stick with only one. Maybe there is a pleasant surprise for MFI sector, I was losing confidence seeing the market action.
Better to include chems or spec. chem, agro-chem and KSM/intermediaries in the tail-winds sectors. The only real outlier here is Pokarna, this is a strong turn-around (due to China trade-war and US Fed rates) but maybe not a compounder.

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Hi Vikas

I request u to read the relevant thread of Arman and alembic once again.
In case of Arman Mr.debasis hav done tremendously well research and try to put ground level realty , I guess the worst has over for MFI, look at HDFC individual loan business it records highest growth.
And in alembic mr.hitesh is watching keenly. both the Gujarat based company creating room for exponential growth.
Alembic is more than 100year old conglomerate and that is not the small number I guess🤗.
Correct me if I am wrong

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Latest status of PF:
(The figures in ‘% of Total’ column are based on current value)

Company name Last price Cost per share % of Total Return %
Laurus Labs Ltd. 327 168 27.4 94
Pokarna Ltd. 137 142 19.4 -3
Kanchi Karpooram Ltd. 364 383 11.7 -5
Solara Active Pharma Sciences Ltd. 1154 702 8.6 64
Valiant organics Ltd 3364 2988 7.6 13
Granules India Ltd. 378 154 7.4 146
Bajaj Healthcare Ltd. 489 466 6.4 5
Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd. 244 194 6.1 26
Suven Pharmaceutical Ltd. 382 248 5.5 54

Overall 15% up in lifetime of 3 years, 95% since beginning of year, thanks to VP forum :pray: :smiley:

New additions are highlighted in bold, PF churn decisions have been posted beforehand.

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Hi,

Great to see fewer scripts in your portfolio.

You mean to say your absolute return in the last 3 years is only 15 %.

If it is true I am curious to know your learning with huge drawdowns and your mistakes. How you changed your script selection approach?

Best wishes

Gaurang

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Hi,

This is described at the beginning of the thread. Initial picks were quite random, based on financial trends for past few years and very basic macro knowledge, not much depth in the analysis, never even glanced at any book on market-analysis/stock-picking (this part is still true). I found valuepickr (forum) almost 8 months after the PF was initiated. After having looked at MMB (money-control forum), ET-markets etc. it was a bit of a pleasant shock :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:, though it took (a fairly long amount of :blush:) time to realize that there could be decent quality discussion in the stinking fish-markets I had seen otherwise.

But starting to learn, was interrupted in 3-4 months, and after just pruning down the long list of bad-quality stocks, I did not keep track for almost a year (starting from the month ILnFS happened, talk about bad-timing :innocent:), without realizing that my quality of stock-picks were not exactly coffee-can, to put it very mildly. :sweat_smile:

It was like a slow boiling frog kind of experience, between Sept 2018-Sept 2019, the PF went from 10% profit to 50% loss. I just put it down to a ‘correction’ after the euphoric peak of Jan 2018. Totally did not track any market news etc. in that time.

This situation demanded drastic action, starting by paying close attention to the VP forum, reading threads, following the discussion, looking for answers etc., and thus a major PF churn was done in end of 2019, 1-2 months after which this thread was started.

In last week of March 2020, only 30% of my entire PF value was left, it has become 4x since then, within 6 months.

The essence of my revised stock-picking work-flow is to spend some effort to build conviction for your picks, gather the essential back-story and keeping to the targets so evaluated. The strategy was to keep around a dozen stocks in total in PF, which fit the description of being under-valued (margin-of-safety + strong-upside), but had a strong background (looked like ‘decent’ ‘quality’) relative to the valuation of course, and a developing story of increasing revenues/PAT with relatively safe out-look + good growth plans in works (maybe GARP simply describes this strategy). This meant looking mostly at the small-cap space, though there were some relatively cheap large-cap big-hitters initially in the list.

I have a full-time job and have not even read a handful of ARs (whatever few were in the past weeks only), so my effort level has to increase. Right now I am doing MF kind of returns, which is not-bad, and it looks like reaching PMS return levels is going to be easy enough. 20% pa should be enough expectation for anybody as a ball-park figure.

Thanks and Best wishes!

Note – PF base (invested) value has been added over time, 35% has been added this year, in SIP like fashion, so 15% overall gain since inception, translates into a 6-7% pa return roughly.

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Congratulations!! This is exceptional returns and considering that portfolio was hammered so badly initially and entire world facing huge uncertainty, instead of losing faith in equities, which most would have done at that stage, you made a King of a comeback! And I see in your thread that the way you evaluate businesses, trends and individual stocks has matured now to a great extent. Most importantly, in this entire journey you never seem to lost faith, courage and conviction…it only changed places from one set of businesses to another! Inspiring journey :pray:

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Latest PF status:

Company name Last price Share cost % of Total Return %
Pokarna Ltd. 137 141 21.6 -2.9
Laurus Labs Ltd. 277 168 17.7 65.0
Kopran Ltd. 123 128 13.2 -4.2
Kanchi Karpooram Ltd. 396 383 11.3 3.4
Bajaj Healthcare Ltd. 470 479 8.4 -1.9
Ganesh Benzoplast Ltd. 64 66 8.2 -2.4
Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd. 250 204 7.2 22.6
Granules India Ltd. 376 154 6.4 144.2
Solara Active Pharma Sciences Ltd. 1091 701 6.0 55.6

The new entrants are in bold. Overall PF is on downtrend since 2 weeks now, about 5% down in that time. Looks like small caps are getting bit de-rated and/or just a phase of profit-booking as the broader markets stabilize near their ATH mark and things seem to be back on a normal trend.

Suven Pharm and Valiant organics go out to make way for the new additions. Little bit conviction was down in Laurus, did not expect Dr. Chava to be true to his word. Even Granules was a pleasant surprise, not used to this quality-stuff :blush: Thanks to Rajeev Jawahar for his threads on the newly added ones!

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Would be very helpful if you can please explain this in more detail?

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Well, I thought Chava was simply being excessively bullish, and might only be partially correct in his estimates, that his forecasting was not top-notch quality etc (more directly, he might have felt pressure to run up the price in order to make offloading his pledges easier).

There was a direct question in the last concall (of Q1 FY21) from an analyst asking why had Chava not forecast such a bumper quarter in the Q4 FY20 concall, why such surprise (for most, I guess). Chava justified saying they just give very rough guidance and always conservative only. (and it is upto the investing public to read between the lines, interpret etc.)

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No change in PF, except some shift (back) to Laurus (had sold-off at 320, was lucky enough to buy-back at 260, post Q2 results!)

Company name Last price Share cost % of Total Return %
Laurus Labs Ltd. 317 170 22.9 86
Pokarna Ltd. 141 140 17.9 1
Kopran Ltd. 123 128 12.3 -4
Kanchi Karpooram Ltd. 418 410 11.0 2
Ganesh Benzoplast Ltd. 66 66 9.9 -1
Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd. 268 209 6.7 28
Granules India Ltd. 413 188 6.6 119
Bajaj Healthcare Ltd. 462 482 6.6 -4
Solara Active Pharma Sciences Ltd. 1170 701 6.0 67

Overall returns are still the same as 2 months ago, at the peak, no diff.

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