Thank you! Yeah, it’s taken a lot of patience and ups and downs to reach this kind of amazing level as you are describing.
E2E was bought 2.5 years ago, in December 2023, at 60 level, so it’s almost 10x, and my first one at that, targeting much more. But then it’s only retracing back to the level it already reached in November 2024, drawing a nice technical cup or roller-coaster chart. It’s my second oldest holding after KPI green, which is only about 5x in exactly 4 years.
Sky gold is kind of substitute for shunning precious metals, this being bought for 270 in September 2024, in almost 2 years gone almost 3x, pretty long wait here too, but thankfully it stayed quite level most of the time, giving overall stability for quite a while.
Freshara is also almost 3x but took only about half a year, a nice booster effect, with much more to come.
Portfolio hardly grew in past couple of years compared to the post covid hockey stick style of growth, but overall quite satisfied with performance.
Yes, the magic as you say is in the sizing. Better opportunity lies ahead now in the cycle.
I appreciate what you’re talking about and the incredible patience you’ve shown, because I was also holding both these shares at good prices but I couldn’t hold on to them when they fell due to lack of patience and vision.
It’s a pleasure to watch your portfolio and learn from it. Thanks a lot for sharing these valuable insights.
Sold off KPI green and bought V-marc instead, held it for 4 years exactly, longest time ever.
KPI Green was getting buried under capex and debt, and doubtful overseas expansion plan.
Vmarc promotor was banned by sebi for circular trading, trying to manipulate price after ipo, but may be let’s forget it since some 4 years old news. They sell usual electric cables, strong market, now moving from government orders to retailers. Just started voluntary quarterly reporting and planning a fund raise of ~800 crore.
Sold shilchar, it is export dependent, looks like shipping and demand both got hit. Held it for little under 3 years.
Bought Venus remedies, it is bit like Wockhardt, both ideas borrowed from @phreakv6, they experienced insolvency like conditions few years ago, but have restructured to come back stronger. Export focused pharma business should show steady growth.
Disclosure: None of the above is investment advice, I am not a registered financial advisor, please do your own due diligence before investing
Venus molecules still in phase1 trail, balance sheet not so strong to support drug development, failure rates are very high in phase1 & phase 2, phase 3 is a killer with success rate for a noval drug of just 3%. Betting on new drugs is just like a lottery. Wockhardt had to sell his hospital business and some other businesses to fund molecule research, 20 years program.
I didn’t mean to compare directly with Wockhardt, the valuation difference speaks for itself. My entry @1567 was bit technical too, strong support at 50dma for long time. Got lucky here, into good profits!
My guess is Venus will not be adventurous with new drug discovery, given their past troubles. I am totally discounting that aspect, for good or bad. If they just continue to incrementally improve their sales biz, it’s enough to justify a punt on the company. It’s the gist of the same thing I think Bharani was pointing out.
I have 23 stocks in my PF, this is weighted exactly in the middle, no great stakes either ways.
Sold out axiscades, held for 1.5 years, things were getting complicated for me, they are in process of selling their biggest business division and reinvesting in other places, lot of changes in PnL etc.
Bought Wockhardt and ABS marine in that order.
Wockhardt is like Venus remedies, though much bigger, turnaround and new antibiotics can be very big, also it can be a game of patience here, hence sized it bit smaller. Difficult to value such biz with a limited phase of monetization, just like kernex, I am looking more towards hbl engineering kind of set up. Generally avoiding pharma due to complexity and lumpiness but thanks to @phreakv6 for the ideas!
ABS marine mainly gives support ships on lease to oil and gas production companies, apparently sector is booming and can grow with sagar manthan scheme of government. Oil and gas sector is getting opportunity may be due to Russia and Iran issues. Tonnage tax scheme will reduce taxes to negligible amount. Thanks to @Rahil_Dasani for the very informative thread!
Disclosure: None of the above is investment advice, I am not a registered financial advisor, please do your own due diligence before investing
hi vikas ,what is your take on gujarat energy? ,i don’t know if you are still tracking it or not ,but the valuation seems cheap and a high crude prices can benefit the share as industries would prefer to us LNG over propane and there Q1 results have been great as well.
Not tracking, it was a long time ago, business apparently changed recently with the mergers happening. I don’t prefer commodity, government related etc kind of companies. My setup is looking for 1-2 years timeline, structural uplifts since I don’t have preference/bandwidth to do much market tracking/trading.
Sold out ceinsys, held for 2.5 years, bought Welspun corp which is making big steel pipes, for oil and gas supplies, AI is largely dependent on gas based power, middle east issues should lead to more pipelines. Their order book is at record level.
Ceinsys raised funds for data centers but the planning is very delayed, like taking years. So, inefficient utilisation of capital.
Disclosure: None of the above is investment advice, I am not a registered financial advisor, please do your own due diligence before investing
sir I have a question you got the stock when it ran up almost 16% on the news that they are making big steel pipes which is okay and good but entering at this point how fair is it because the stock has been falling since past 2 days and you must siting on the massive paper losses, so what is your strategy here?
“I am talking about Welspun Corp, so my question is that if we look at the 5-year stock price CAGR, it is 82%, and if we look at the 3-year stock price CAGR, it is 95%. So my question is, is it justified to buy this stock? I feel that the stock has risen a bit too much. Can it show such growth again in the future, or can the stock price rise this much? Please share your thoughts on this this time.”
@mzambare@Rohan_Mishra yes, the risk is probably bit too much at the moment, my entry price is 2154, got bit lucky, so little buffer is there. Also paper losses will not hurt much, expectations have to be limited for like few months after such a long run up. Results are only going to improve when they ramp up orders delivery and use the raised capacity. Pipelines projects can have a long timeline from the planning to construction.
So, this is a limited conviction trade for me. Institutional holding has increased which should support the price I think.
If gas turbines are a hot trade then consequentially gas pipes are needed to deploy the turbines etc. Price was rising since the oil price started rising, so we’re bit late to the party.
Thank you for your guidance. I am highly satisfied with your response and look forward to gaining more knowledge from this in the future. I offer you my deepest gratitude and respect. This has brought great clarity to my understanding."
In ONeil terms For WELCORP this chart is taking shape of a high tight flag which if properly formed is probably a nice position to enter.(Not investment advice)
@vikas_sinha Congrats for your great journey in Shilchar. I’m curious to know why you didn’t wait to see how they perform with their capacity expansion planned to take shape by Apr 2027
@praveen_a thanks! Also for the technical insight! Shilchar is facing issues monetising even the previous tranche of the expansion, so I wasn’t willing to wait for more.
Sold out Satin credit, held for 4 weeks, bought GSM foils. Assam is the biggest exposure for Satin, floods will be drag this year, agriculture/rural focus can face issues as el nino gets stronger. GSM is a drastic situation, may be decent opportunity, CFO/promotor arranged a hit on CEO/promotor, the latter is now out of hospital, stock is trading at half the previous level on the news.
It’s a little bit of both of the things. Fundamentals are decent for it to trade at the level previous to the incident. The fall gives good opportunity hence. But risk remains as relatively unknown SME, tiny cap, there may be fallout unknown from the incident too. At least they try to connect with investors via quarterly results and concall.
