UPDATE:
Added Steel strips wheels today, after reducing GNA 2.5x, Laurus 2.5x, Vipul 2x, Shakti and Jubilant ingrevia, this is just like GNA, even better perhaps, even in auto sector downturn every quarter for past 1 year has been record breaking 
Disclaimer : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
UPDATE:
bought Shivalik bimetal, 2.5% of folio value, trimmed Kopran, Laurus, Bajaj health, RACL, KPR, Globus, Shakti, Manorama, Bajaj steel and Pix in that decreasing order by size. Electronics manufacturing/exports maybe a favored sector for some time, they have capex and doubling size with good/improving margins.
Disclaimer : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
Latest folio status:
Much diversification undertaken, maybe a mistake or two picked up along the way.
Overall 10% down since the peak on 02 august.
Note – Table sorted by “% of Total by Current Value”
| Company name | Last price | Cost per share | % of Total by Investment | % of Total by Current Value | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd. | 647 | 536 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 21 |
| RACL Geartech Ltd | 564 | 252 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 124 |
| Manorama Industries Ltd. | 1425 | 739 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 93 |
| Bajaj Steel Industries Ltd. | 904 | 450 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 101 |
| Pix Transmissions Ltd. | 761 | 454 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 68 |
| Expleo Solutions Ltd. | 1344 | 632 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 113 |
| GNA Axles Ltd. | 773 | 400 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 93 |
| Laurus Labs Ltd. | 484 | 324 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 49 |
| Tips Industries Ltd. | 1393 | 861 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 62 |
| Filatex India Ltd. | 98 | 75 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 30 |
| Dynemic Products Ltd. | 513 | 394 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 30 |
| Fairchem Organics Ltd. | 1802 | 1574 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 14 |
| Kopran Ltd. | 241 | 136 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 77 |
| Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd. | 401 | 288 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 39 |
| KPR Mills Ltd. | 509 | 315 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 62 |
| Optiemus Infracom Ltd. | 335 | 363 | 4.2 | 3.0 | -8 |
| Bajaj Healthcare Ltd. | 338 | 238 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 42 |
| Steel Authority Of India Ltd. | 114 | 133 | 4.4 | 2.9 | -15 |
| Globus Spirits Ltd. | 1261 | 1276 | 3.7 | 2.8 | -1 |
| Praj Industries Ltd. | 358 | 372 | 3.5 | 2.6 | -4 |
| Steel Strips Wheels Ltd. | 1825 | 1861 | 3.2 | 2.4 | -2 |
| Jubilant Ingrevia Ltd. | 616 | 777 | 4.0 | 2.4 | -21 |
| Sandur Manganese & Iron Ores Ltd. | 1932 | 1999 | 3.2 | 2.4 | -3 |
| Dish TV India Ltd. | 17 | 22 | 3.9 | 2.4 | -21 |
| Vipul Organics Ltd | 164 | 156 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 5 |
| Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd. | 293 | 250 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 17 |
| Marksans Pharma Ltd. | 59 | 79 | 3.9 | 2.3 | -25 |
| Valiant organics Ltd | 1203 | 1491 | 2.9 | 1.8 | -19 |
Total 28 stocks, needs a little trimming here.
A little pharma and chem biased folio, is facing a sectoral rotation, also hit by supply issues and destocking.
Somehow the select auto sector focus is working quite well.
A big chunk has been bet on steel etc.
Just a dash of textiles, electronics, capital goods and ethanol.
And only one each from music, broadcasting, software and food.
EPS vs Valuation catch up game likely continues for 2-3 quarters more, don’t expect any substantial moves till then.
DISCLAIMER : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
What is your motivation on Filatex? what makes you think Filatex deserves 4.1% of your portfolio?
Filatex looks like it has a decent management track record, with good disclosure levels and share holder friendliness. The management sees elevated margins for their product mix for next 3-4 years. No big capex but minor efficiency improvements like they had just started a mini power plant 1-2 months ago, in order to save on power costs, but it has been shut for past 3-4 weeks since the coal+shipping prices were too high, though prices have been falling rapidly now.
They have a small efficiency improvement taking place in 6 months, since they have been running at 100% capacity. The big trigger is going to be a plastic recycling plant to convert to polyester fabric, for which patent applications are under process after 2 scaled up pilot projects were successful, this will give a good boost, since eco-friendly fabric has good demand and their process is the best so far.
The stock is on cheaper side anyway since most synthetic fabric makers have not done well and is almost commodity biz. The hope is that margins remain elevated for the next few quarters as per management speak.
Yes, this may deserve re-look, is not that special actually.
Hello Sir,
What are your views on GPIL (Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd.)?
Thank you
I am very convinced with the valuation thesis of @Kumar_manas, my average buy is slightly below the current level. I am quite impressed by the management quality, they have managed to show decent performance even in tough phases. But my allocation is just 2% of PF. It was bit higher but I managed to book a decent sum at around the peak. Price action is not quite convincing, but at this allocation level I am ready to hold for 4-5 years to see their steel plant come online.
This was the last company I sold off while re-doing my PF, 2 months before this topic was started, I have mentioned that in the initial posts. It was tough to sell, but I was convinced the iron-ore and steel cycle was overwhelmingly in favor of China, Brazil and Australia, with India set to suffer for many years more. A few mines restarting anywhere in the world, might lead to a supply glut which may impact the valuations.
Just have a double check on management quality, lot of red flags, IT raid for hidden income, cash flow match issue.
This is for filatax india, sometimes too good and too cheap is a mirage
Latest folio status:
No changes made, only loss harvesting done in past week. Overall 5% down from peak(s) in mid-October and first-week of August.
Would like to offset gains with long-term losses accumulated while re-doing my PF, 2 months before this topic was started (mentioned that in the initial posts), so trying to reduce transactions for a while and hold gains for more than a year.
Table sorted by “% of Total by Current value”.
28 holdings in total.
Current return is just the (price/cost)%-100, Historical is the return since august 2017 (so including all the profit/loss booked), but mostly in past 1.5 years, since holdings were totally revamped in november 2019 and quite frequent trading happened after that (with a 5 month mournful pause between march-july 2020).
Current cost is bit unpredictable since holdings are always sold in first-in-first-out order, and trading, averaging all mixes in
| Company name | Last price | Cost per share | % of Total by Current value | % of Total by Invested value | Current Return % | Historic Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACL Geartech Ltd | 667 | 252 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 165 | 184 |
| Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd. | 621 | 536 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 16 | 44 |
| Expleo Solutions Ltd. | 1594 | 632 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 152 | 173 |
| Bajaj Steel Industries Ltd. | 947 | 450 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 111 | 170 |
| Manorama Industries Ltd. | 1374 | 739 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 86 | 143 |
| Tips Industries Ltd. | 1708 | 861 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 98 | 99 |
| Pix Transmissions Ltd. | 746 | 454 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 64 | 75 |
| Laurus Labs Ltd. | 527 | 324 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 63 | 282 |
| GNA Axles Ltd. | 742 | 400 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 85 | 126 |
| Dynemic Products Ltd. | 631 | 394 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 60 | 80 |
| Filatex India Ltd. | 94 | 75 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 25 | 29 |
| Kopran Ltd. | 271 | 136 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 99 | 145 |
| Bajaj Healthcare Ltd. | 407 | 238 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 71 | 107 |
| Fairchem Organics Ltd. | 1780 | 1574 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 13 | 14 |
| KPR Mills Ltd. | 519 | 315 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 65 | 72 |
| Optiemus Infracom Ltd. | 359 | 363 | 3.1 | 4.2 | -1 | -1 |
| Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd. | 380 | 288 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 32 | 33 |
| Globus Spirits Ltd. | 1328 | 1276 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4 | 7 |
| Steel Authority Of India Ltd. | 112 | 133 | 2.7 | 4.4 | -16 | -11 |
| Dish TV India Ltd. | 21 | 22 | 2.7 | 3.9 | -6 | -5 |
| Praj Industries Ltd. | 355 | 372 | 2.5 | 3.5 | -4 | -5 |
| Sandur Manganese & Iron Ores Ltd. | 1939 | 1999 | 2.3 | 3.2 | -3 | -3 |
| Marksans Pharma Ltd. | 63 | 79 | 2.3 | 3.9 | -21 | -20 |
| Jubilant Ingrevia Ltd. | 599 | 777 | 2.3 | 4.0 | -23 | -25 |
| Vipul Organics Ltd | 163 | 156 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 5 | 175 |
| Steel Strips Wheels Ltd. | 862 | 930 | 2.2 | 3.2 | -7 | -7 |
| Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd. | 264 | 250 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 6 | -34 |
| Valiant organics Ltd | 1084 | 1491 | 1.5 | 2.9 | -27 | -22 |
DISCLAIMER : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
What is your view on ITC?
Just an ordinary biz, almost PSU like, trying to penetrate FMCG with tons of competition, ESG concerns will restrict valuation upside, mostly an alternative to bank deposit only.
DISCLAIMER : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
What use of multiple bags?
I have some single-digit baggers, and have been thinking if some were sold early. Biggest gainer is just 6x, in 3 years, if held for 3 more years it could have been 12x hypothetically, or in a decade about 24x. But what is so great about essentially 2x returns every 3 years after the superb first 3 years? Just blabber or sales pitches, load of bull basically. Feku people abound and succeed. You can fool all people some of the time … etc.
UPDATE:
Sold off Filatex, read about the tax-evasion case in some detail, it is a big 500 Cr amount with hawala and other things, though case can take time, but company growth is too slow to take the risk, added to the others where the current prices are around or below my buy average, bought big chunk of Steel strips wheels, and some of GPIL, Sandur, Valiant organics, also little of Kopran and Shivalik bimetal
DISCLAIMER : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
UPDATE:
Sold off GNA axles and Jubilant ingrevia, switched them to Meghmani organics and Meghmani finechem. Total 6% of folio
Also bought some of GPIL, Steel strips wheels, Shivalik bimetal, Valiant organics and Dish TV.
Reasons:
GNA had rocketed and had booked about 30% already, thought the price action was good news, but do not think fundas support more than 800 fair value, for coming year.
Jubilant ingrevia, was buy mostly based on price action, with some downside protection, or so I thought, already this was almost the bottom holding by size, needed money for what I think are better/faster bets.
There has been much noise about meghmani capex and demerger, my value-pickr bookmarked page lands on meghmani but have been shocked by the promotor actions before, so had given a pass so far, really if we look at corporate governance we would miss lots of companies. Am following @Kumar_manas analysis on value-pickr, now I hold all 3-4 companies which make his entire folio.
DISCLAIMER : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
May you share a table with all your allocations, weights and avg prices pls?
I paid tax on time, actually the ‘slight’ 2 month delay, caused me to pay 3% interest, on top of the surcharges, it was not at all a trivial sum. My guess was the folio value was near peak for the short-term at least hence booked out the big chunk.
I didn’t get it. Can you elaborate please.
An interest will be levied on Income Tax to be paid if there is any shortfall in advance taxes.
Can you just show the holdings tables if possible??
