ValuePickr Forum

Technical updates

this is just to provide a technical update on the stocks i track:

1). ajanta pharma - nice 3 wave correction from the highs with positive divergence forming now at the lows. could be up for the end of the correction or atleast a bounceback.

2). arshiya intern - reaching similar oversold levels where it has bounced back in the past. also sitting at the lower end of its trading range for last 1.4 years

3). astral poly - its in a very strong 3 of 3 uptrend. i would not stand in front of this train.

4). atul auto - very overbought on daily charts. could enter a correction/consolidation phase

5). balkrishna - in the last leg of the downtrend. correction could either be over or could be about to get finished.

6). granules - correction is over. trying to create the base for the next upmove. a quick re-test of the lows couldn’t be ruled out

7). cera - in a 3 of 3 uptrend, same as astral. being bought on every dip by investors

8). hawkins - stock has broken out after forming a good base. currently overbought so could consolidate for some time. but trend remains strong so any correction would be short

9). kaveri seeds - again in a 3 of 3 uptrend. negative divergences are beginning to set up but strong uptrends have ways of shaking off these divergences by either moving sideways or giving a quick and sharp correction followed by an equally sharp bounceback(e.g. mayur, kaveri, astral etc)

10). mayur - last leg of 3 of 3 uptrend. could see 500+ before any significant correction

11). page - an investor’s delight. has been moving in an upward sloping channel for the last 2-3 years. currently in the middle of the channel. results tommorrow could decide the direction

12). thangamayil - broke out of 1 year long consolidation between 145 and 185. in a very strong uptrend. making higher highs on the RSI as well as price in every upmove.

disc : these are my personal technical thoughts. i may have interest in one or all of these. these are not recommendations to buy or sell. please do you own analysis before buying/selling.

1 Like

thanks

keep up the good work.

thanks Hemant.

appreciate it.

Good work. If possible can you post the charts for the same??

Hi manish,

I do all my analysis on Bloomberg. I am out of station from today for 2 weeks with no access to Bloomberg. Will post these charts once I am back in London.

Great work Hemant!

Much appreciated.

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Dear Hemanth,

I am waiting to see the charts. However, I do my analysis on Point and Figure Charts which shows that Ajanta Pharma has a good support at Rs.360/-. If it falls below this then it can go all the way to Rs.350/- and then Rs.320/- where it has support near the 200 DEMA. It has fallen below the 50 DEMA at Rs.403/-

Seek views of our fellow tribesmen.

following on from my last technical update:

1). ajanta pharma - stock seems to have finished the price correction but is still going through the time correction. the stock has crossed 50 EMA and currently consolidating above it. it seems to be creating a base for next uptrend which should carry it to 600+.

2). arshiya intern - continues to be in the trading range of 110-165 for more than an year. breakout should be on the upside whenever it happens.

3.astralpoly - consolidating after a 15% correction. this stock has a habit of consolidation followed by a non-stop uptrend of 40-50% plus. next rally should carry it to 500+.

4). atulauto)- going through a time correction after reaching overbought zone as expected in the previous update. 50 ema is way lower at 145. stock should spend some time here to allow the averages to catch up.

5). balkrishna - finished an abc zigzag correction. has reached an inflection point. it should now either rally to 300+ or should continue the correction with another abc zigzag to 200 levels. stock is being neglected at the moment and any positive surprises in q3 results should lead to the first outcome.

6). granules - as anticipated in the previous update, stock is attempting a re-test of previous lows.a successful test of 155-160 zone should trigger the next uptrend.

7). cera - this stock has corrected twice before during the uptrend since dec-11 to touch the 50 ema. this seems to be the third time. 50 ema at 380-385 should provide good support and should be used to go long.

8). hawkins - as expected in the last update, this seems to be going through some time correction without correcting much price-wise.reaching very oversold levels which could lead to an oversold rally.

9). kaveri seeds - this stock was earlier defying gravity and ignoring all technically overbought signals although this time the negative divergences took their toll and the stock seems to be finally correcting. 50 ema is around 1220 which has already been tested today and should provide first stop in the correction if not the last one.

10). mayur - as expected in the last update, mayur saw 500 before this correction set in. the stock seems to have corrected towards 50 ema at 445-450 although it seems to have bounced before that. a test of that can’t be ruled out but next big move should be higher towards 550-600 levels.

11). page - the channel move continues with results not providing any fireworks. lower range of the channel lies around 3200-3250 so downside seems limited.

12). thangamayil - time correction in the 310-340 range following a 100% upmove. if 310 holds, it should target 425-450 next.

disc : these are my personal technical thoughts. i may have interest in one or all of these. these are not recommendations to buy or sell. please do you own analysis before buying/selling.

Thanks Hemant,

two stocks which are correcting and are on my watchlist are - Cera & Kajaria. Would like to know what the charts say about Kajaria.

Hi rudra, glad you asked about kajaria. Kajaria has touched 50 ema in today’s fall. It has bounced back many times from there in the past. It is also most oversold since this year’s uptrend began. There is a good chance that the correction may have either ended today or it may go sideways for some more time. If today’s low breaks, we could be looking at 190-200 region

Hemant,

Your technical analysis is fascinating. From your inputs, I can make out that you use Elliot waves a lot. I have read a bit about them (Thanks to Hitesh for recommendingJohn Murphy ) but I am not able to comprehend much the Jargon used by you. I can make out somethings like abc zigzag , 5-3-5 but not what do you mean by 3 of 3 and things.

How do you draw these waves ? With my very limited exposure to elliot waves, I found the biggest challenge is to classify waves as 1-2-3 or abc. Can you share some info on that ?is google finance a good resource to draw these waves…?

Thanks,

Atul

ThanksHemant. Could you also update about Unichem and Amar Raja?

Also do you think we have completed Minor 2 ofIntermediate2? in Nifty(been following your charts daily).

Regards,

Niranjan

Hi Hemant,

Your technical updates are a great addition to the fundamental analysis of these stocks - thanks. On a lighter note - I felt like I was reading notes about patients in a hospital. Come to think of it, the analogy is not way off.

Atul - 3 of 3 referred to the major 3 wave of primary 3 in Elliot wave terms. I have explained a bit about this terminology in my nifty long term count post in the same section. There are many Internet resources to learn about Elliot waves but over time and under some guidance from tony caldaro, I have learnt to quantify these waves to avoide subjective biases of human mind.

Niranjan -

Amara raja completed a full uptrend with clear five waves on the daily chart. The current consolidation is part of the corrective wave which seems to be correcting more time wise without correcting much price wise signalling that the long term trend remains very strong. 50 ema being at 235-240 provides additional comfort.

Unichem’s chart is similar to unichem. Stock seems to have finished the price correction and currently re-testing 50 ema after breaking out above it. Once it breaks out above 200, we should see a move to all time highs.

The minor 2 label was tentative but it does certainly seems like the minor 2 is still ongoing. I think most global indices are waiting for the resolution of the fiscal cliff issue in US after which we should see the up trends continuing.

HG - it does certainly seem that the stocks in track here are all going through a correction after a good run. So the patient analogy does fit well :slight_smile:

Hi Hemant

appreciate your technical updates it helps a lot as another important factor in decision making…pls keep it up.

Thanks Hemant for the reply…

I am assuming you meant Ajanta when you said unichem here…

“Unichem’s chart is similar to unichem. Stock seems to have finished the price correction and currently re-testing 50 ema after breaking out above it. Once it breaks out above 200, we should see a move to all time highs.”

thats correct niranjan :slight_smile:

Hello Hemant,

Today i read your post. Its nice to see all contributing in their own small way. Keep it up. I do Point and Figure Analysis. Giving you a brief of my analysis of Granules here.

The chart shows that one week moving average has cut five week moving average from above. This shows that the stock has lost momentum and can continue down trend. The stock is also oversold. This is as per candle sticks.

As per Point and Figure charts, since April the stock is in a positive trend. The stock is above the Bullish Support Line marked in blue. This is a good sign. Currently the stock is near a Double Bottom at 160 where one can see two “O” which will be formed if it touches 160. It has strong support at 150-55 where it has made a Triple Top ( see 3 “X”). If stock crosses 185-90 where it has resistance then it will once again touch 230.

Readers write in with your comments.

Tony,

From what I could make out, 150 is the level to watch for offering strong support.