Company is confident of achieving 20% CAGR over next 2-3 years. Coincidentally new capacity coming up will able to cater up to 1800 cr revenue. If we assume 16% EBIDTA and 1800 revenue for fy27 - EBIDTA will be 288cr. Assigning a multiple of 15 (5yr median 13.3 and 10yr median 17.1) mkt cap 4600 (EV 4320 + 280 cr cash). Do the current mkt price offer margin of safety?
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@karanshah137 @Jay_Shukla Do not share research reports on this forum.
Read the guidelines below.
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How do high-storage battery systems impact TD Power Systems’ business?
With advancements in energy storage, large-scale battery systems are increasingly being used for backup power.
Currently, some of TDPS’s generators serve as backup supply solutions. If high-storage batteries take over this role, how could it affect the demand for TDPS’s gas and steam turbine generators?
Would the shift towards battery storage pose a long-term risk to the company’s business, or is the demand for traditional generators secure due to their ability to provide extended backup power and handle peak loads? How does TDPS plan to adapt to this evolving energy landscape?
TD Power Systems’ management is making a strong case for why batteries aren’t an immediate threat to their business. Their key points can be broken down as follows:
1. Power Demand is Still Growing
- Even though battery storage is increasing, the overall demand for electricity is so high that it remains a small fraction of the total energy mix.
- This suggests that there’s still plenty of room for generators, especially for industrial, commercial, and grid-scale applications.
2. Cost Factor of Batteries
- Batteries are expensive—both in terms of upfront costs and long-term lifecycle management.
- Many industries and utilities still find gas and steam turbines more cost-effective for long-duration power supply.
3. Batteries Provide Short-Term Backup, Not Long-Duration Power
- Batteries are great for bridging short gaps, but they aren’t reliable for extended power generation.
- Peaking demand situations and critical applications (hospitals, data centers, military bases, industrial plants) require sustained power, which gas turbine generators provide more effectively.
4. Gas Turbines Are Still Essential for Critical Applications
- Many industries cannot afford power interruptions or capacity limitations that come with battery storage.
- Gas turbine generators are still the most reliable choice for extended backup power and peak demand scenarios.
5. Batteries Aren’t Disrupting Large-Scale Power Generation
- The shift to battery storage is happening mostly at the consumer and decentralized energy level, not in large-scale power generation, where TDPS operates.
- Large utilities and industries are still relying on traditional generators because of their high capacity and reliability.
Sources: Latest Concall
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AI Agents + AI Distillation
Enterprise customers are still using models ex of DeepSeek coz of Security (Prompt injection something similar to SQL injection)
Cost is the 2nd consideration - u want to build an agent first and then worry about the optimization
Context : whether Deepseek will change the spending on Datacenter growth and Power capex is needed anymore.
Hyperscalers have said that they might err on the side of over spending Vs crying after few years and ruing the idea of under spending in AI race (especially America)
TD Power caters to Hyperscaler indirectly so the above makes sense too
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TD Power buying and Oxbow i guess becomes a SH > 5%
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Promotors have been buying recently. Albeit, small amounts.
Have doubled my position in recent days. Will look to add more at current levels.
Expecting robust growth, basis management guidance and market demand.
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