September Auto Sales of Tata Motors
Domestic sales down 15% at 69,694 units vs 82,023 units (YoY)
Total CV sales down 23% at 30,032 units vs 39,064 units (YoY)
Total PV sales down 9% at 41,313 units vs 45,317 units (YoY)
Perhaps it’s all factored in, which is why the PE ratio is around 10.
In theory all 3 taxes - Dividend tax, STCG, LTCG are applicable for those who had DVR shares and opted for it to be converted.
However, the calculations involved are little complex, depending on your purchase date, qty, Deemed Dividend concept, TDS deduction by Tata Motors on the Deemed Dividend amount, potential offset of some LTCG against the same, deduction of STCG etc. I would suggest you download the sample tax calculator that they had issued before the conversion. Plug-in your numbers and change the value of Deemed Dividend as per the latest value they published after conversion…you will get all the answers.
If you are still confused, just contact your CA.
Why sample calculator? As I have posted already, they sent the actual calculations of all these for the holdings you have.
See this msg
my bad…since I already sold out before merger I did not get the email and also failed to pickup the screenshot you had posted on your response!
Technicals on Weekly Chart :
Huge Negative Divergence b/w the stock price and RSI on weekly chart -
On hitting an ATH of 1063 in March the stock was at 92 RSI, but even hitting a new ATH of 1185 the stock was at a much much lower RSI of 64.
Fundamentals -
BEVs on the Backfoot? Surge of CNG and Hybrid Alternatives.
Volume growth in H1 2024:
Post-pandemic shift from Hatchbacks to SUVs/MUVs.
We're all aware that there is a shift towards SUVs/MUVs by the aspiring
Middle class, for the better looks and superior feeling of ownership.
But what about the shift from EVs?
India mirroring the trend in global EV sales.
Slowdown in the entire Auto sector during this festive season.
All in all, Tata Motors is losing from all ends.
Disc- No rec. of buy or sell. Sold off holding from family portfolio @ 980-1000.
Tata Curvv looks promising. It gives the vibes of Lamborghini Urus. It has sold 8,218 units in the 2 months since its launch and contributes 10% to Tata Motors’ passenger vehicle wholesales. I hope the management learns what types of cars consumers prefer and makes more of these
Design preference is highly subjective. Tata Curvv will compete in mid-end SUV space which is already dominated by Maruti, Hyundai. Now, Mahindra’s new 3XO is also selling like hot cakes with monthly 9,000-10,000 units. I’m sure Tata Curvv will also find its place in this fragmented market, but…
More emphasis should be given upon the fact that Tata’s dominated space of BEVs is facing a major slowdown and no signs of recovery. Tata’s dominating place in BEVs and JLR segment was the only reason I was interested in this company. However both the businesses are facing a slowdown.
I believe a lot of this has already been factored into Tata Motors’ valuation. It’s trading close to its all-time low PE. If the sales pick up in the coming years, the stock should get re-rated quickly.
JLR has been transparent about expected muted demand and some supply chain issues, but they’re still aiming for an 8.5%+ EBIT margin for FY2025. Also, Tata Motors market share in domestic PV market has improved from 5% in FY20 to 13.3 % in H1FY25
How do you read TataMo’s results? Overall weak numbers, even below lower expectations, however management seemed positive on recovery - both in JLR (one off Aluminium supply issue easing, China may remain a drag though), PV (good festive season demand pickup). Wholesale sales reduced to manage channel inventory. Overall, they kept FY guidance intact with recovery expected in H2.
So, what’s the view from here: Is worst behind now for the stock after shap 35% correction from top? Or slower EV and continuous market share loss will continue to drag?
Technicals -
Might take support near 722 price range and then consolidate for the short term. RSI likely to reach oversold zone before consolidation starts.
Commercial Vehicles
CVs cycle is already at an advanced stage of its cycle in the short term (2 years), it has already shown a very strong growth of 30% CAGR in the last 3 years. There will be a slowdown in govt. infra and road construction capex.
Tata’s CVs sales were down by 20% in H1 FY2025.
Private Vehicles
CVs cycle is already 20% above its 2019 peak, already at advanced stage with expectations of low single digit growth in the short term (2 years).
Tata EVs will face fierce competition going forward. Mahindra to launch their two EVs on 26th Nov. Maruti to launch its first EV in Jan. and Hyundai will launch Creta EV in Jan. as well.
All these manufacturers will launch their EVs in the entry level segment where Tata Motor holds 70% market share. Since there is no subsidy push from the govt. for EV cars, this would only lead to loss of Tata Motor’s Market share.
Tata Punch EV and Nexon EV, which have 30% and 13% market share in EVs respectively, have already started facing competition from MG’s new Windsor EV with BAAS(Battery as a Service) making the buying price very aggressive. MG Windsor is much more spacious that Tata Nexon but cheaper by ₹2L. MG Windsor was the highest selling EV in the month of Oct., 30% of the total EVs sold.
This rental based model in EVs is also Tax beneficial for the Corporates so going forward other OEM’s are also likely to push BAAS for their EVs. So Tata Motors also needs to implement it.
Jaguar Land Rover JLR
I thought only JLR could save Tata Motors yet again but then came across this article… This only means company will have to book huge book exceptional loss in the coming quarters.
Source - https://youtu.be/npmEGnljX2Y?si=fa2-U1_nQwWNgxEN
Disc. - No rec. for buy or sell.
Go woke go broke is a thing in the US
The woke movement is hopefully in it’s last days. But Jaguar seems to have doubled down into it.
The previous Jaguar logo etc was iconic. But this new logo is just another generic I am woke too signal.
Here’s humourous but good breakdown from marketing perspective why this campaign is terrible.
absolute bonkers. this is practically brand suicide. there is no way to fix this. decades of heritage undone in one campaign.
but the good part is they did not drag land rover into this mess. the volumes of Jaguar are much smaller, albeit nuking the brand equity like this is nothing short of a crime.
Please go through this article, you guys will have all your questions answered.
Key Notes :
The point is that everyone is now looking at Jaguar.
Unless the car can do magical stuff or there is twist on the next part of the ad where a jaguar eats the ghastly models , nobody but Keir Starmers ardent and rich followers are going to buy it. Jaguar management somehow took Elliot Carver too seriously . Disregarding 95% for the sake of 5% may seem a good idea to politicians but hardly any man or woman will want to be seen driving a car so explicitly promoted for the LGBTQ+ .
Dear Sir PLease guide me from where you received the calculation about dvr conversion and tax deduction? I have tried to contact linked in to get explanation but they have advised me to log in swayam portal and log in and make request. I am trying for that but most of the time server is not responding and I come back to circle back. I am NRI and I had 300 dvr shares and was allotted 140 instead of 210. My broker sharekhan also unable to give explanation and he says contact RA. I got credit of 1134.68 from tml securities on 25 sept 24 but no mail from tata motor dvr so far.
I will be great help to me to understand the conversion .
