lack of understanding what constitutes international business (when you say Tanla to bring Indian revenue to 75% - you inherently are comparing with Route while forgetting similar business of Tanla has nearly 35-40% revenues coming from international business for in-bound msgs to India.
2nd point on margins - but again the source is confusion from Route’s business when you say“Mostly the same Enterprise play at similar lower margins” - it’s not correct local enterprise business served locally with local Telcos can fetch 20% margins - like what Karix with Tanla’s synergies achieved over time from 2% to 20%.
On Synergies, i don’t agree to “Synergies … not much - Valuefirst is still going to be run independently. So no real cost saving.” - massive savings will come as discussed earlier and also confirmed by industry veterans.
It’s not exactly 20% for Enterprise business - but 15-16% in normal set up - except last few quarters there was price disruption due to Airtel etc - now the industry has resolved it and margins have again started going up - and I am hearing that industry may start increasing SMS prices which will further increase.
Also, the local enterprise business on WhatsApp / campaigns, chatbots & other value added services are usually higher as compared to bulk sms deals - so blended margins of 15-16% - which should improve as sms pricing will improve in India, positively impacting bulk sms pricing.
VF margins of 5% will definitely improve to double digits and eventually to Karix levels
am sure Uday saw business reasons to acquire VF from market share stand point, new geographies, new capabilities like Surbo etc etc - so it must have been carefully weighed decision with clear vision on deliverables.
With respect to Wisely ATP competitor, don’t think it will come from Route - we will see when it comes and we will analyse - for now Tanla is the only vendor who got through with flying colours in live testing within regulatory sandbox of TRAI demonstrating to host of regulators (TRAI, DoT, RBI, SEBI), home ministry, PSU banks, Telcos etc - so they have massive head start and once they get entrenched (needs integration of ATP platform in Telcos and enterprises etc), it will get difficult to remove them from market leader position similar to Trubloq.
*Tried adding all points from a friend who’s invested in it for 8 years