Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd (TMB Ltd) - An undervalued pvt. sector bank?

Current Market Cap = ₹ 9,000 Cr

Overview :

TMB Ltd is one of the oldest regional private sector banks. It was founded in 1921 and was named as ‘Nadar Bank’ . The name of the bank itself suggests that it is a community based bank. Nadars are an entrepreneurial south Indian caste ( predominant in the districts of Kanyakumari, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Virudhunagar ).Later in 1962, the name was changed to Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd. The bank is headquartered at Thoothukudi, Tamil Nadu. It came up with an IPO in Sept 2022 and was subscribed 2.86 times.

Financial Performance : (From FY23 Annual Report)
At the end of FY 2022- 2023,
Revenue stood at ₹4,710 Cr ( CAGR of 4.63% in the last 5 years )
Net profit stood at ₹1,029 Cr ( CAGR of 33.17% in the last 5 years )
Advances stood at ₹37,289 Cr ( CAGR of 9.43% in the last 5 years )
NIM is at 4.46%
ROA is at 1.97%
The book value of the bank is ₹6,928.34 Cr, which gives an ROE of 14.86%

In FY 2018- 2019, The GNPA and NNPA of the bank stood at 4.41% and 2.40% respectively, which was drastically improved to 1.40% and 0.62% in FY 2022-2023. An improvement in their asset quality aided in their profitability growth.
The PCR is great at 90.9%.
The management guides that the bank will try to maintain their GNPA below 2% and NNPA below 1% while having PCR above 85%. They target the loan book to grow at 10 to 12%.
Bank’s Total CRAR stood at 26.26% out of which 24.61% is Tier-1 CRAR. It’s a well-capitalized bank with good asset quality.

It has around 530 branches across India, out of which 386 branches are in Tamil Nadu which creates a concentration risk. Next 6 states with more branches : Andra Pradesh – 27, Maharastra – 23, Gujarat – 22, Karnataka and Kerala – 21 each.

RAM (Retail, Agriculture and MSMEs) segment contributes to almost 88% of the loan book. The rest is Corporate loans. The management aims to keep the loan ratio (RAM-Corporate) at 80-20. In RAM segment, the bank aims for low ticket sized loans.

It’s a conservative lender with very low exposure to corporates and more than 98% of their loans are Secured loans.
Their Yield on advances is at 9.43% and cost of funds is at 4.71%
The slippage ratio is at the lowest in the last 5 years – 0.82%

As of Mar 2023, The CASA stood at 29%, which is considered low for a lender. The management aims to open new branches in areas where they can have a quick break-even. They also aim to achieve CASA of 30 to 35% in the next couple of years.

Let’s move on to the other side of the coin.

The Legacy Issues :

As stated above, the Bank was formed by the Nadar community members and they believe that TMB is a gold mine, built by and for the community. In 1994, due to some internal disputes, a group within the community sold 67% of their stakes to the Essar group for around ₹28 Crores. But RBI opposed the deal.

In the meantime, Mr.C Sivasankaran of Sterling group bought those stakes from Essar group for an undisclosed amount. This stirred a great deal of controversy within the Nadar community. Realizing their mistake of selling their stakes, they decided to join hands and formed a group called ‘The Nadar Mahajana Bank Share Investors Forum’ to buy back those stakes from Mr.Sivasankaran. It was told that Mr.Sivasankaran asked ₹155 Crores for his stake. In 2007, the Nadars managed to buy nearly half of Mr.Siva’s stake but they failed to aggregate the amount to buy back the entire stake.

Again in 2007, a group of 18 foreign investors led by Katra holdings which is owned by Mr.Ramesh Vangal and some other people from the community acquired the rest of the sterling group’s stake. By 2011, Katra holdings sold it’s stake to Standard Chartered Bank, for which the ED released a show-cause notice for contravention of the Foreign Exchange Management Act.

As of today, the bank states that 37.61% of it’s paid-up share capital are subject to legal proceedings.

The Income Tax Department Raid :

On July 2, 2023, the I-T Department conducted a surprise raid on the Bank. According to the I-T Department, the bank has not filed statement of financial transactions (SFTs) pertaining to cash deposits of over ₹2,700 crores involving more than 10,000 accounts and also found discrepancies in specified credit card payments involving total transactions worth ₹110 crores, dividend distribution of more than ₹200 crores, and shares issued for over ₹600 crores.
Source : Mint

Later the bank stated that this was due to an internal technical glitch and the errors were rectified.

The 30 minutes Billionaire Taxi Driver :

On September 9, 2023 at around 3 pm in the evening, a taxi driver in Chennai received an SMS from his bank stating that his account was credited with ₹9,000 Crores.
With disbelief, he checked his account balance and found out that the amount hadn’t been reflected (It displayed his original balance which is around ₹100). He decided to transfer ₹1,000 to his friend’s bank account to verify the authenticity. To his surprise, the amount got transferred. Now again he tried transfering ₹10,000 and the transaction was successful. He transferred another ₹10,000 after that. Now in total he transferred ₹21,000 from his TMB account to his friend’s bank account. After 30 minutes, he received another SMS from his bank stating that the entire remaining amount has been debited from the account.

According to Mr. Selvaraj, assistant editor, Crime department, Times of India,
The next day, the taxi driver was approached by two anonymous individuals via WhatsApp and SMS demanding that the transferred ₹21,000 should be paid back and threatened him by stating that they would file a police complaint against him if he failed to do so. The driver hired a lawyer and met with the bank’s team in Chennai and said that they would be filing a police complaint against the bank before moving any further. Now, it was said that the bank doesn’t want to file a legal complaint and suggested that the driver doesn’t need to repay that ₹21,000.
Clarifications from the Bank :

Yet another technical glitch at the Bank’s end.

The Resignation of MD/CEO :

Mr. S Krishnan was appointed as the MD and CEO of the bank on September 4, 2022 for a period of three years which was approved by the RBI. On September 28, 2023, Mr. S Krishnan tendered his resignation citing ‘personal reasons’. The Board of Directors of the Bank in their meeting held on September 28, 2023, accepted his resignation and forwarded the same to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for their guidance or advice. Till the guidance is received, Mr.S Krishnan shall continue to be the MD and CEO of the Bank.

Some additional points:
• Two RBI nominated directors are present in the board (A possible red-flag).
• Mr.B. Prabakaran, Independent Director of TMB Ltd is also a whole-time director of Sree Ayyanar Spinning And Weaving Mills Private Limited, which is owned by Pioneer Asia Group.
Mr.A. Niranjan Shankar, Director of TMB Ltd is an immediate relative of Mr. S. Annamalai. Mr. S. Annamalai is a director of Sree Ayyanar Spinning And Weaving Mills Private Limited and the MD of Pioneer Asia Group. This raises a question in Mr.B. Prabakaran’s ‘independence’ in the board.
( In March 2016, The FII backed faction led by Pioneer Asia Group’s Mr.Annamalai elected to TMB Board )
• It was said that, in September 2016, The then-company secretary Mr. Deepak S was forced to resign due to the opposition he expressed in the matter of some share transfers and the issuance of bonus shares.

Disc : Having some tracking positions.

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Q2-FY24 Results

-Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd (TMB) on Friday (October 27) reported a 4.3% year-on-year (YoY) jump in net profit at ₹273.5 vs ₹262 crore YoY

-Net interest income (NII), which is the difference between the interest income a bank earns from its lending activities and the interest it pays depositors, rose 4.8%, coming at ₹532.8 crore against ₹508.6 crore in the corresponding quarter of FY23.

-The gross non-performing asset (GNPA) stood at 1.70% in the September quarter against 1.56% in the June quarter. Net NPA came at 0.99% against 0.66% quarter-on-quarter.

-The total business of the bank at the second quarter ended 2023-24 stood at Rs 85,092 crore with a growth rate of 9.07 per cent. “Our interest income has gone up by 21 per cent. This is one of the major reasons for the rise in profit. Our bank has been consistently showing profits all the years,” said S Krishnan, managing director and chief executive officer of the bank.

Could you please enlighten me how that’s a red flag?

Disc: holding a meaningful position

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@StonePitbull My speculation is, RBI is not comfortable enough to trust the current board.
According to my understanding, Both RBI nominated directors will be a part of the board until all the legal proceedings gets resolved.

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What about MD Mr.Krishnan …Is his resignation confirmed??

The board has accepted his resignation. RBI asked the bank to find his successor. Till then Mr. Krishnan will continue to be the MD and CEO.

Management’s guidance for the full year (FY 23-24) :
Business Growth - 12 to 15%
NIM - Above 4%
ROA - 1.75 to 2%
ROE - Above 15%
GNPA - Less than 2%
NNPA - Less than 1%
Cost to Income - Around 44%
Slippage ratio - Less than 1%

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This business is fundamentally a good Bank. But Promoter issue is holding the bank back. My main concern is that Bank management and Board don’t seem to have enough skin in the game to drive growth. Promoter issue will get resolved one way or other but then, if no one is driving the growth, making critical investments, then we maybe left with a bad to mediocre bank in 5 years time. Any suggestion? Happy to be corrected.

I had a meaningful position but reduced the position significantly after that raid news came up in July. I still have a small position.

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From an operational stand point, the bank seems to be in a fairly good position. However, the qualitative aspects are not that good.
Buffet likes to invest in businesses than an idiot can run because eventually an idiot will run them. I believe that, banking as a business is definitely not one of them. So, appointing a good and competent CEO with some changes in the Board of Directors may become beneficial for the bank’s future.

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in banking is three piller of growth
1.management 2.management 3. management
you must have understood the rest.

Resignation of Non-Executive Director

Mr. P.C.G Asok Kumar tendered his resignation.
Note : He and his immediate relatives together holds almost 1.15% of TMB Ltd.

On 29th Feb, TMB Ltd announced the exchanges that, RBI has approved the appointment of Mr.S.Ravindran as the part-time chairman of the bank. He has extensive work experience of 29 years at the Securities and Exchange Board of lndia (SEBI) and was Executive Director from August 2011 to May 2022.

Yesterday, he resigned from the board of TMB Ltd stating that his resignation is due to professional commitments and also added that there are no other material reasons for his resignation other than those mentioned above.

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I duno i feel like something sinister is happening in the business. The NPA’s going up , the cost of funds is going up and the loan growth is poor , lot of high profile exits . I regretting my decision after holding it for a year .

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You are clearly exaggerating. The situation on-ground isn’t bad. NPA spikes and declines are just part of the lending business, its not a bug. They are a conservative franchise.

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Resignation of Company Secretary and Compliance Officer
Today, Mr. Prakash Chandra Panda has tendered his resignation to the board citing personal reasons.

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RBI rejects Tamilnad Mercantile Bank’s proposal for CEO candidate
Bank has been asked to submit “fresh panel of candidates with suitable experience” for the position of chief executive
Source : Business Standard, 13 April 2024.

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Screenshot 2024-04-23 00.20.20

TMB Ltd Q4FY24 results:

Guidance vs Performance :

Guided for a 12 - 15% growth | YoY, Advances grew by 6.5% and the total business grew by 4.8%.
Aimed to open 50 new branches this Fiscal year | Ended up opening only 22 new branches.
GNPA < 2% | GNPA - 1.44%
NNPA < 1% | NNPA - 0.85%
PCR > 85% | PCR - 87.52%
NIM > 4% | NIM - 4.11%
Cost to Income around 44% | Cost to Income - 47%
Slippage ratio < 1% | Slippage ratio - 1.36%
ROA - 1.75 to 2% | ROA - 1.84%

On the liability side, the deposits grew by 3.6%.
CRAR stands at 29.37%
Book Value per share stands at Rs.500.23 ( 14.33% YoY )
Net Profit for the year stands at Rs.1072.03Cr ( 4.15% YoY )

Yesterday in the ConCall, when asked about the underwhelming rate of growth at which the bank is currently growing ( 5 to 7%), CEO shared that this is mainly because the bank is currently going through a transformational phase. It may take upto a year to stabilize and once it stabilizes, the bank aims to grow at 15%.

In summary, the bank widely underperformed it’s FY24 growth guidance but achieved it’s guidance at the asset quality side.

.

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