SYMPHONY - A Comfort to hold for Long term?

Symphony concall

I have tried to replicate the same. Kindly bear with me if i have missed something important.

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Standalone (Y-o-Y)

Revenue - 321 crores up from 257 crs - 25% increase.

Domestic sales - 273 crores up from 210 cr - 30% increase.

out of 273 crores 269 crores are air coolers, rest 4 crores spare parts and other items.

Raw material consumption is - 42.63% vs 43.78%. No impact of rupee depreciation and volatility. No need to worry if rupee depreciated further!!!

Op profit increased - 27.70% - 27.79 %

EBITDA - 92 crs vs 70 crs

PAT - 63 crs vs 50 crs

PAT after providing tax 4.36 crores(year end mismatch since june being the year end for symphony) of earlier years.

It was above 67 crores if it is excluded.

Tax rate 28- 29% to be maintained.

Other income 13.5 crs vs 7.6 crs

There was high demand in Q4 for small coolers(residential) which was unmet. 40k coolers is the lostopportunity. To mitigate this kind of scenario,strategy to tie up with other OEM has been implemented. this will not happen in the coming years when there is adhoc or sudden demand. clever and excellent strategy!!!

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consolidated

cons sales - 391 crs up from 319crs - 22% growth.

cons - op - 23.5% vs 23.72.

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Details

Division to identify capital utilization.Home appliances and corp funds.

ROCE on stand alone basis - for home appliances - 111% vs 90%. Awesome!!!

ROCE on cons basis75% vs 63% . superb.

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dividend

6.5/- vs 5.5/-(3 normal and 2.5 special div for completing 25 years)

325% vs 275% - percentage basis. Super duper!!!

44% div payout. Great Going!!!

Inventroy

18 crs vs 11crs standalone . Will be cleared by september!!!

The new models received well. Service processing and repair improved.

total market - 5 million units - organized market - 1 million units.

org market - 25% growth. demand to continue.

market leadership - 50% in value terms.

distributors - 16400 dealers as on june 13.

Industry growing at 20%. Organized growing more.

Market share - videocon, kenstar - 30% each , bajaj electrical- 16% others - 4%.

Advt in 2013 was aggressive. will remain aggressive to capture markets.

modern retail growth - 68% over previous year.

impco - one time correction, reduction in exports.

price realisations - 5% improvement.

new countries added - eucador, bolivia, kazakhstan, armenia,croatia, angola.

symphony has identified a large distributor in pakistan. Supply from july.

focus is on large markets - exports and select markets.

Warehouse in Europe and branch in UAE.

Mexico operations

)- subdued performance. delayed season affected entire cooling industry.

)- service centre sales affected. margins were under pressure.

)- normal sales to resume this year.

identified strategy and steps to improve results.

)- lean manufacturing project identified. improved control on cost - manufacturing,

)- inventory management and rationalise inventory

)- Total 25 crs inventory.

)- debtors - 32 crores. no question of bad debts.

)- 90% of sales to large retail format. 90- 120 days payment schedule.

)- Advances from symphony - 31 cr down from 37 crs. Loans will come down to 23-27 crores.

)- 20 crs equity investment through subsidiary and 11 crs on loans.

)- substantial amount will recovered in the FY14 year.

)- plastic inventory reduced from 46k - 17k from 12 to 13(will be liquidated to zero in 2 months).

)- large customers sourcing begun

)- new models launched, may add new product line in mexico

)- metal cooler - maintains the position.

Industrial and ducted air cool

)- Sales increased on triple digit on small base.

)- focus to build a team, netwrk, awareness,

)- dealers improved from 15 to 44. Plan to reach 120 dealers this year.

)- no consultant to 10 large hvac consultants.

)- tie up with 2 large 2 national contractors - 20 contractors in future

-repeat order - baba ashram.

)- installation from 56 sites to 109 installations.

)- major new accounts include Asian paints, marico, iskon. railway - 2 railway stations.

)- good pipe line in IC and expect decent revenue.

Expect major revenue contribution in another 2- 5 years.

Hi Krishna,

Could you pls share what would be your strategy on symphony in this volatile market? What would be the prudent time period to hold on to this stock? I do understand it depends on one’s own conviction & investment plan, risk factor etc., however I request your own thought on this.

Thanks in advance.

Hashim

I hold symphony, 7% of my PF,took position couple of months before,average price ~300.

Hi Krishna,

Could you pls share what would be your strategy on symphony in this volatile market?

Sit tight hashim. This is an excellent business model with above 112% ROCE, huge cashflows and div payout. Only thing to monitor is how impco is improving. This would act as a trigger. Rest there is huge scope in domestic market both residential and industrial cooler managed by ethical and dynamic management.

http://www.fnbnews.com/article/detnews.asp?articleid=34188&sectionid=1

_Symphony Ltd, the leading player in evaporative air coolers, is now looking to increase its presence in the food and beverage industry in the country.

The company has already installed its air coolers at various FMCG and food companies including Nestle, Marico, Anmol Bakers, and JJ Bakers._

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We have made a good beginning in the food industry and are very confident that with such good examples we will have many companies to offer the air coolers in the coming years.

Thanks a lot for your reply.

Do you suggest to accumulate slowly during this meltdown? What would be reasonable price range? Can we expect next quarter any positive trigger point in growth of Impco? Or need to wait couple of quarters more?

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Thanks in advance.

Hashim,

I don’t suggest you to put more than 10% of your portfolio in symphony. you can accumulate it if it is too low.

The triggers for this quarter could be exports to pakistan’s large distributor as mentioned in the con-call and overall exports to other countries since rupee has depreciated by another 8%. Also another advantage is the low base of the last year’s sales revenue for Sep quarter because of inventory management and introduction of new models.

As company policy we will come to know about the financials of Impco only in their last quarter, but as management suggested in the con-call, excess inventory would be liquidated by Sep and exports to impco should happen.

Symphony)- Increase in MRP of Air Cooler models

Symphony Ltd has informed BSE that:

"To cope up with the inflationary effect on cost of materials and various overheads, the Company has resorted to upward revision of 5% to 15% over the presen…

Symphony)- Increase in MRP of Air Cooler models

Symphony Ltd has informed BSE that:

"To cope up with the inflationary effect on cost of materials and various overheads, the Company has resorted to upward revision of 5% to 15% over the present M.R.P. depending upon the model of air cooler.

With this revision in pricing, the Company is confident to sustain its profitability during the year 2013-14."

Hi,

A new range of products targeting the unorganised window fitted aircoolers segment. No need to refill water manually! Excerpt from the announcement.

“lndia is a traditional Air coorer market with a huge unorganized segment dominated by window metal body coolers. we could foresee that by tapping into this segment we could achieve tremendous incremental growth in near future and launched a new window Range - India’s first branded window coolers The range comprises of 5 models in attractive beige colour, out of which 3 are of made of plastic body and 2 are made of metal body. The range’s All weather composite Plastic, made of specially engineered corrosion, heat and uv resistant polymers can withstand harsh weather conditions. These specially designed rust proof and shock proof coolers are loaded with advanced features like Dura Pump technology, in-built float valve for automatic water refill, inverter compatibility, etc.”

These are good at continuously coming out with improved products. This looks like a good move.

Cheers

Vinod

http://www.symphonylimited.com/pdf/FY_2012-13_Q4.pdf

I had not read this before but a very detailed explanation of operations and last year results. Price hike, new models are positive news. Industrial coolers and access to US markets can be a big market. Impco turnaround can be a big trigger. They are working on improving the operations at Impco.

I had earlier bought Symphony at 320 and sold at 370 luckily. Thinking of entering again around 275.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/livefeed_pdf/Oct2013/SYMPHONY.PDF

Symphony to add more models. simply amazing how they want to be at each price point.

http://www.symphonylimited.com/pdf/corporate-presentation.pdf

Industrial coolers showing good traction. Also modern retail sales also improving considerably.

Hi Krishna,

What kind of growth are you expecting in next 2-3 yrs for Symphony?

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Next 2 years there will be major growth coming from residential coolers only and they are doing the right thing by introducing new models at each price point to garner the market share from unorganized sector. Exports should also boost up. I expect 18%-22% growth and if IMPCO delivers then more than that.

The surprise factor is the Industrial Cooler segment. This is a hugeopportunityand is virgin market for symphony with no organized players as their competition. If symphony can capture the market share from the unorganized players as they did for residential coolers in the coming years then i see great days ahead for symphony.

The beauty of the company is the ROCE generated and dividends paid out of excellent cash flow. This will act as a support for Symphony.

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Krishna,

Symphony had negative networth till June 2007. Only after that its networth turned positive as it came out of BIFR and started posting good results. In case of companies which had negative networth previously and especially for Symphony which has posted pretty good results for the past 3 - 4 years, the ROCE ratio will always be skewed upwards (am not saying that Symphony is not a good company).

Regards,

Ankit

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Superb Results!!!

Sales increases by 185% YOY from 27crs to 77 crs

NP increases by 600% YOY from 2.05 to 14.32 crs

EPS increases by 600% YoY from .59 to 4.09

Icing on the cake ROCE at 123% for coolers.

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Symphony_Ltd_291013_Rst.pdf

Amazing results…

77 crs sales in the leanest quarter… WOW!!!

Expecting some fireworks in Symphony’s stock tomorrow!!!

Anyone has numbers for tomo’s concall?

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/stock_market/corp_notices.php?autono=738766

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/symphony-eyes-overseas-buyouts-to-expand-footprint/article5394104.ece

Co seems to be very bullish on industrial segment.