Some Results will be out within couple of weeks from now. That is probably a better time to take stock
Domestic Industry data quoted (above) is likely Dwarikesh sourced/provided.
As per my current scuttlebutt work with some knowledgable folks in sugar industry, picture is probably worse;
Sharing for us all interested/invested in Sugar Sector to try and track the tight situation better by talking to more sugar domain folks
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Domestic Sugar Industry
Opening 50L vs 60L T
Consumption 290 vs 280L T
Production 270 vs 290 LT
Opening Stock (270+50-290) = 30L T
So government will likely have to import minimum of 10-15 LT
40-45 LT min level has to be maintained as in Sep there is no crushing, and availability is only by End Oct or Mid Nov
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UP Sugar Company Updates
Dwarikesh, Dhampur, and Dhampur Bio better avoided.
a) New sugar units coming up near one unit of Dhampur and one unit of Dwarikesh and one unit of Awadh, so some acreage will be diverted to new players. Newer players also financially strong.
b) Dhampur, Dwarikesh, and Dhampur bio impacted due to heavy rainfall august and September
c) The other fallout of this excess rainfall is red rot disease has spread much wider (present in small pockets) in some parts of field crop due to the excess water flow. Yields and Recovery thus is badly impacted!
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Two of Uttam Sugar units is likely to be impacted due to heavy rainfall but least impacted by red rot disease, hence likely to make up shortfall due to a) higher capacity this season and b) excellent cane management (diversion/procurement)
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Awadh Sugar one plant effected but will be made up by other plants.
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Triveni Engg one plant affected badly by red rot. But other plants likely to make up. They will probably do as much as last year.
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Dhampur bio Recovery rate is lesser and therefore RM cost/kg 2-3 Rs higher than other efficient players.
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Next SS forecast 24-25
El Niño Impact is predicted to be more severe. So UP based mills may be up for 2 good consequent seasons
Disc: Invested in Sree Renuka sugars from early 2021 till April 2023; shifted to Uttam Sugar in May 2023 courtesy this excellent VP Annual Conference Sugar Sector presentation; Studying Triveni Engg as another probably better longer-term sugar sector bet. Please do your own diligence before investing in Sugar stocks. Data may be good; situation is tight!