Its a great portfolio with most of them winners and most of them have survived the recent onslaught on small and midcaps. (goes to show that market corrections dont matter too much if stock selection is great…)
Gruh can be an anchor stock to any portfolio. Recently its undergoing the much needed time correction so you shouldn’t be too much bothered by its stagnation.
If I were you I would convert aarti drugs to PI… Its almost same sector and moving into a better quality stock… Aarti drugs---- I dont like their debt and I dont like them paying high dividend inspite of high debt. I am reminded of another company which had a stellar run for a few quarters, increasing debt and showing great sales and profit growth… surya pharma… until the company got stuck somehow and now is going nowhere. I always feel great managements will steer their companies towards lower leverage once they have sufficient growth… Thats why I like PI…they talk about generating a good amount of free cash now and always have a tight control on debt.
If you have time to dig deep then I would avoid atleast some of the 5% bets and look at higher allocation in the top 5-6 stocks. How much impact will the 5% stock have on your portfolio even if it goes up by 50%? But as Donald and Hitesh mentioned elsewhere it could go wrong badly if not done with due care and research work.
Good portfolio I say. Smart choice of stocks which are well discussed in valuepickr. Should easily beat sensex hands down.
I feel having 5% allocation to low conviction stock is a perfectly OK strategy. My advice is not to go by any book/philosophy when deciding diversified/concentrated portfolio, just invest for sometime experiment with different strategy and choose the strategy that suits your temperament best.
I am reading an awesome book called “The zurich axioms” where the author has advocated for not more than 4-stock/bet portfolio. And the author is a real big guy.
Another brotherly advice. You have an very good set of stocks. So dont bother about them. I would rather advice you to read few good books on investing, read ARs of the company you invest to increase your investing horizon.
Sold half of my holding in Cera after saw the last two quarterly result(disappointing),Sold Marksans pharma fully,Sold Astral 40% of my holding after Donald said he booked major profits in Astral after holding for last 3 years,sold Rs soft & Zensar tech(both had Short term position)fully,Sold Accelya kale at around 750 for disappointing earnings growth,Sold fully Repco at 358 & Dhanuka at 204…
Added Granules India after result,Loaded Kaveri,Techm for undervaluation,added Aurobindo pharma,it is still undervalued people think also i think,Added some quantity of Vst tillers(Thank u Hitesh bhai for the recco.),re-entered Avanti again after saw the valuepickr recco…,re-entered Repco again after seeing Hitesh bhai interest in Repco home finance…
Would like to hold Alembic,Ajanta,Astral,Kaveri,Techm,Vst tillers,Repco,Atul auto for long term…
Guys i’m very much tense about my capital allocation of my portfolio…i dont understand,my allocation is right or wrong so i request to all valuepickr members plz express your views on my portfolio & must on my capital allocation…
I feel, the “feeling of tense” is coming due to your investing using others people’s conviction. You selling of Astral/Cera post some recommendation (which were of no doubt are great business) and adding Granules (which is known for being a poor business) shows that.
I am not criticizing or being critical of you (I am not qualified, neither entitled to do so). Just advising as fellow boarder. I feel you need to develop conviction to get rid of the “feeling of tense”.
Besides, I am amongst the minority guys, who feel astral is an excellent business, with an unmatched growth momentum, awesome management, and awesome ground feedback from dealers. I see no reason selling a 30-35% compounder because of illusion of high valuation (if you consider next qtr result, trailing pe is 24, which I think is fairly valued for 30%+ compounder).
I am equally bullish with Cera, and is not unperturbed by flat bottom line. I feel eventually Cera’s bottom line will start growing with top line. To add to it, Cera is an excellent play on Indian middle class theme.
Most of the times, wealth are created by no doing anything (Just sitting tight with excellent business). You dont pay any brokerage, dont pay any short term tax, dont pay any price for market mis-timing, and will have better sleep.
except for suven and helios I follow most of the other stocks in your portfolio and all of them are good bets.
about capital allocation, list the stocks in preference of your conviction… which ones you feel are going to generate better returns with higher safety of capital. are not very overvalued, and from among these try to allocate high percentage weights to the higher conviction bets.
You can do a theoretical exercise by listing the stocks in order of preference and putting up a few sentences of the logic behind the investment in them and then allocate a hypothetical percentage to each stock and see how it looks… Then you can take a final call.
Don’t know about most of the stocks you have. I will comment on some i know.
I saw VST 2 years back. It is a good company with 50% market share. Its in the Agri theme. The allocation is good. No need to follow a concentrated stratgey like me but the pain of finding too-many good “Original” ideas is always there with a diversified strategy. **I Can’t get Conviction that easily. **Kaveri and Ajantha are good stocks. No doubt. But I have a different screening process to arrive at my ideas. Cera is an excellent stock. Personally I would have preffered it over Kaveri because of the consumption and brand-nature of the product.
Sold half of my holding in Cera after saw the last two quarterly result(disappointing),Sold Marksans pharma fully,Sold Astral 40% of my holding after Donald said he booked major profits in Astral after holding for last 3 years,sold Rs soft & Zensar tech(both had Short term position)fully,Sold Accelya kale at around 750 for disappointing earnings growth,Sold fully Repco at 358 & Dhanuka at 204…
Added Granules India after result,Loaded Kaveri,Techm for undervaluation,added Aurobindo pharma,it is still undervalued people think also i think,Added some quantity of Vst tillers(Thank u Hitesh bhai for the recco.),re-entered Avanti again after saw the valuepickr recco…,re-entered Repco again after seeing Hitesh bhai interest in Repco home finance…
Would like to hold Alembic,Ajanta,Astral,Kaveri,Techm,Vst tillers,Repco,Atul auto for long term…
Guys i’m very much tense about my capital allocation of my portfolio…i dont understand,my allocation is right or wrong so i request to all valuepickr members plz express your views on my portfolio & must on my capital allocation…
Views invited…thank you
Thanks Subash ji for comment on my portfolio…
Yes you are right my tension is coming because my investing using others people’s convictionn my portfolio…think of it…thanks
Coming to Astral poly,I sold 40% of my holding due to two reasons,after Donald said he booked major profits in Astral & he also said “Huge expectations built in the stock price. Any disappointment in business performance can cause damage” and beside this i blindly follow you,donald,Ayush,Mahesh & Hitesh bhai…i know Astral is a great business as also you say,i’ll definitely add Astral Poly before Q3 result…thanks
Cera sanitaryware.I sold it before someone told me that net profitis showing the maginal dip from last two quaters,profit margin is dipping a bit too,you can exit half at cmp at cover it around 680-700,so i sold it at 753,it is also a great business,i’ll definitely add Cera…thanks
What are you think of my porfolio stocks Suven & Helios?..plz express your views…
Last 2 days i read about Diversified portfolio & concentrated portfolio thread & many other from google but do no understand what to do with my portfolio…plz solve my problem…thanks
You said listing the stocks in order of preference & putting up a few sentences of the logic behind the investment in them and then allocate a hypothetical percentage to each stock and see how it looks…yes today i’ll definitely do this to your advise…thnks
I have 14 stocks in my portfolio,do you think more than 10 stocks good for CAGR returns or 9-10 stocks is maximum for a portfolio?what do you think Hitesh bhai…thanks
Thanks for Comment on my portfolio…& also thanks for saying “The allocation is good”,Seems you have good knowlwdge about market…
20-25% in a stock is very much scaring for me so i allocated in a stock maximum 10-12%…
About Vst tillers,all credit goes to Hitesh bhai,he is who recommended Vst tillers to all, Kaveri,Ajanta,Astral & Cera is a great business,i should hold for long term…thanks
Subhajit regarding Cera, they are finding it tough to maintain the margins even though they are blazing on the sales front in these tough times…
As the contribution of faucet ware increases and sales from outsourcing is increasing they are finding it tough on the margin front…
Cera was a growth story and still is… But its not in the league of A++… Once the margins stabilize you can enter again… These are my personal opinion…
As hitesh bhai has mentioned you can try to concentrate on few good business( A++ )and increase your allocation by keeping in mind the current prices and future return potential…
Your blind following people can bite you badly in future, so be aware of the fact. Cloning, is not a bad strategy per se, but you need to develop conviction, and your filter, and your strategy to make it a success.
As Surya bhai said, the beauty of high growth business is that there is less chance of getting damage in future. EPS growth can to some extend nullify the effect of pe contraction if any. So that makes margin of safety for a growth stock. But you need to track the growth figures of such stocks to detect growth softening, and start reducing it. Astral seems to be far away from growth moderation phase as of now.
I dont track Suven/Helios. So cant comment on that.
There is no end to the debate of concentrated vs diversified debate. There is no unique optimum formula for the numbers of stocks you can have in your pf. The only thing, that is universal is that you need to have majority of winners in your pf to get a sensex beating return.
regarding no of stocks in the portfolio there is no correct or definite answer to that… It depends upon people’s mindset and comfort levels…
If you are comfortable holding 15 stocks and are confident about them, then so be it… For someone who doesnt want to hold a lot of stocks 5-10 seems okay.
there’s no fixed formula for the concentration of portfolio. But those with higher chances of providing superior returns need to be allocated higher amount of capital.
Thanks Subashji for your great comments…i must think about your comments(1st para) & need to develop my knowledge about market by read some books…& i understand that one day i have to take decision myself…
Now I am happy to have 14 stocks in my portfolio as Hitesh bhai said “If you are comfortable holding 15 stocks and are confident about them, then so be it… For someone who doesnt want to hold a lot of stocks 5-10 seems okay” & i am comfortable to have over 10-12 stocks in my portfolio…thanks
It’s been long time that again i wanted to update the portfolio,Here is my new & updated long term portfolio.
Ajanta-15%
Granules-12.75
%
Canfin-10.4
%
Aurobindo-8.75
%
Kaveri-8
%
Ahmednagar Forg.-7
%
Vst Tillers-6.25%
Suven-6
%
Lloyd Electric-6
%
Kitex-5.5
%
Capriglobal-4.5%
Kesar-3.5
%
Sharon Bio-3.35
%
Arogranite-3
%
I am bullish on all the stocks in my portfolio,Requesting to all Valuepickr members plz give your feedback on my portfolio & If i am taken any wrong decision in my portfolio
