Among the better concalls I have read this earnings season. Loved the clarity and candidness.
Arun Kumar has unequivocally and repeatedly said that the business bottom is behind, and that there will be a linear quarterly runrate of $60 million in the US starting Q1 (about 35% growth). This will come with improving margins due to liquidation of piled up inventory, leading to reduced warehousing costs and transportation costs, as manufacturing will adjust to demand.
Other markets continue to grow, especially north Africa. Stelis has the overhang of Sputnik and RDIF, but apart from that the facility has scaled up well and has six customers signed for the coming year.
No major capex or R&D spends (in the US) over the next couple of years at least as they have a lot of approved products which will get commercialized. This will further improve free cash flow generation and they will use the money to reduce debt.
Disclosure: Invested from an average price of 550 odd and have been waiting for green shoots. Reasonably large position in the PF and has been a pretty painful hold. May add at the end of this quarter when numbers start reflecting the commentary.
Full portfolio Vineet Jain portfolio