I am a regular MF investor who rarely dabbles in individual stocks. Investment strategy has been to always hold stocks, bonds and gold in equal weight portfolio balanced annually.
There are certain things about markets which puzzle me. If we look at global markets from year 2000, the returns on various asset classes are heavily skewed. Spx was 1500 and now flirts with 2400. FTSE is only 10% higher. Dax has doubled. Sensex has come from 6000 level to 29000 level. A balanced bond portfolio would have more than tripled your money in 16 year.
If you add divideds, returns from our index are probably more than 6x.
But there is one asset, Gold, which requires no analysis, comes with less volatility, has moved from 4000 to 28000, a 7x return.
So if someone had got the turning point correct, he would have made more money than any other asset. And with any need to watch their portfolio.
The question pertains to how do we recognize the big trends like these and specifically the major turning points so that we profit from mega trends and not bother too much about minor movements?