Sterling & Wilson Solar Ltd. - Will the Sun Keep Shining?

Any idea on how much the margins can improve if SW sales goes from 8000 crore to 14000 crore annually in next 3 years?

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They have guided for EBITDA margins of 9-10% in the medium to long term. How long it will take them to reach there, only time will tell. EBITDA margin has shown improvement in last 2 quarters and as execution picks up from 2Q onwards (as said by management), operating leverage shall kick in and we should see EBITDA margins inching higher.

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I see everywhere the margins for EPC business is 15-16% for even smaller companies.

Waaree, Gensol all the EPC divisions have better margins even though SW solar will have the biggest revenues of 9000 crore still the expected margins are 7-8%.
Maybe because Waaree and Gensol are doing module manufacturing also and placing manufacturing business under EPC.

More thoughts appreciated.

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https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/08/20/us-backs-nigeria-on-sun-africas-utility-scale-solar-power-project/

I was surfing on some Nigerian websites to know more about the EPC order S&W won. Got this new snippet, saying the Energy ministry got backing from the US for its solar needs. It has mention of Sun Africa, which is the main beneficiary of this Order. And i think its a US company. Does this connect some dots?

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Assuming a bulk of SW’s new orders is going to come from Reliance, module prices shouldn’t really matter much as it would be a Free Issue Material from RIL right? In that case their margins could actually improve as the share of reliance orders increases in the next FY?

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Not sure, If 8% ebitda margin improves to 9% then not much effect but yeah if it goes till 11% or 12%, that will be substantial increase in profitability.

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This is the same project.

What is the eps estimate for FY25?

Revenue, - 8,000
GP - 800 Cr
EBITDA - 450-500 Cr
PAT - prob - 400 Cr. (no tax, Interest only on BG & limits,)

It seems ittle difficult to get the topline of 8000 cr.

This is management guidance… 8k is easy… H2 will be easy 5k

Elliot Wave Count for SW Solar