While I find the above news as positive, my main concern lies around very low “volume to delivery” ratio. Approx 20% to 30%. It is decreasing since July
@satishwe Do you find this concerning ?
Would love to know your views
Disclosure: Not invested
I don’t track the volumes or technicals that much as i don’t understand it well.
Anyone else who has good knowledge about this could comment.
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I have reviewed the last three concall transcripts again, and at no point did the management mention anything about selling their personal shares or providing interest-free loans to the company. Had it been communicated earlier, the market reaction might have been different.
The underlying issue appears to be a cash flow problem. While the company is growing aggressively, its operations are not yet generating enough free cash to fully support the ambitious capacity expansion underway across Rajasthan, Mambattu, and Khalapur. So far, management has repeatedly stated that expansions are being funded through internal accruals and bank borrowings, but recent developments suggest liquidity pressure may have started showing up. (Just my guess)
At this stage, the best outcome would be if some institutional investor engages with the management, clarifies the situation, and provides some kind of support to the stock.
Technicals: The stock has now closed below its 50 EMA for the second consecutive day. A sustained close below the 200 EMA (around 170) could be a warning sign that something is wrong with the company.
Invested with a small allocation.
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was studying Navin Fluorine International Concall and found some insights from the management on the R32.
Navin fluorine is doing a capex of 236 crores for additional HFC capacity equivalent up to 15,000 MTPA of R32 which is expected to be commissioned by Q3 FY '27.
the management mentioned that the supply situation is going to be more constrained for R32 due to consumption cuts coming all over in the west and China is going to cut 10% capacity in 2029 itself whereas India is going to cut in 2032.
They also mentioned that the additional capacity can come through India only where new capacity cannot be added after 2026. the world is moving to low GWP (Global Warming Potential) gases, and this is supercharging demand for R32 in blends and new A/C (RAC) units.
An analyst did the math on their revenue projections and asked if they were assuming a price of $4.5 to $6.5 for R32. The CFO didn’t confirm the exact number but did say they expect the "pricing environment will remain firm.
This new capex is strategically designed to use their “full entitlement under the quota” provided by the Kigali Montreal Protocol. They have a license to produce, and they’re building the factory to max it out.
Disclaimer: Invested and views may be biased.
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There are enough experts on the forum to comment about business quality and technicals etc. So I won’t go into that. But I’d like to share a few thoughts on promoter quality.
They did an IPO in Jan’25 for Rs 200 crores out of which they net received ~Rs. 150 crores. The IPO was oversubscribed 188x overall suggesting massive demand at the offer price. As a result of this IPO, Promoter ended up with ~68% share of the company from 94% pre-issue stake - a 26% dilution!
Just 8 months after IPO (in Aug’25), promoter started saying they need to raise another Rs 200 crores for Bhilwara facility and selling their stake (this time ~3%) to give that money to the company interest free?! And who are they selling it to? Why are they not hiring I-Bankers/Institutions and raising money the proper way again? Why are they not engaging lenders to raise debt when B/S is hardly levered?
Interestingly, DRHP/May’25 concall don’t mention anything about Bhilwara facility or “backward integration” anywhere, and in Aug’25 concall, they mention “backward integration” 14 times plus announce Bhilwara capex. Why are strategic priorities shifting so abruptly? What is the hurry?
All these actions suggest poor business planning, poor strategic thinking and poor personal financial planning on the part of promoter.
Add to it promoter’s lack of basic financial sense - inability to answer queries around negative Operating cash flow, queries around inventory levels. These simply look like red flags to me.
Again these are just my thoughts and I’m open to be fact checked/countered with thoughtful opinions by investors in the scrip!
Disclosure : Not invested. Above is not investment advise. Please do your own research.
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Stock has been listed for less than 12 months and is yet to create meaningful supports/resistances. I wouldn’t read too much into price action or technicals myself until this business goes through one complete Price maturation cycle.
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