StageInvesting +Elliot Waves

[StageInvesting]

Manappuram Finance

Can it touch COVID lows or break those levels (72.50)

Well ,the path should be treachrous.

Ideally one should have exited it when it browke 40 months moving average near 140 but some people are either too innocent or they take investing in a stock equivalent to their religious beliefs - come what may , you can;t question them.

Here is the monthly chart ( orange line is 40 months moving average)

Likely path (probability set-up ) - can go wrong too ( no one is God to know exact future)

It seems to be doing Zig Zag correction (that too in monthly chart -too much worrisome ).

In Zig Zag, wave A has 5 legs (1,2,3,4,5) And B ( counter bounce )has 3 legs (a,b,c ) and then there are chance that it would fall in Wave C in 5 legs and many of the times wave A happens to be equal to wave C

It is currently falling A -then a bounce in B - how low C will go down? It would depend upon the height of B.(where the counter bounce stops)

It should go little more down, then a bounce in B and then the deep -dive

Keep in mind , it is a monthly chart so it would take its own sweet time to act .

Disclaimer - Char for study purpose only.

[StageInvesting]

Walmart

A 7 years channel broken . A beatiful channel since 2016 .(earlier Amazon had borken 13 years channel)

Now trading below 40 months moving average.

Not very good signals from US markets.

[mohitbansal]

@StageInvesting
First of all thank u for actively writing and sharing your thoughts, they help innocent people like me who buy Manappuram Finance at 120.
I don’t have experience in reading charts nor do I use them actively. But wanted to understand the bounce back at B from A is there any method to understand the bounce height/percentage?

[StageInvesting]

There is no method. We have to wait for A to stop. The bounce back can only start from there. Bounce back % would depend upon the overall sentiments of the markets as well as stregth of the stock. Generally bounce backs can go 23% ,38 % or 50 % of the size of wave A depending upon various scenarios.

[StageInvesting]

Key IT Stocks

They were among the leaders of this 2 years bull market …their behaviour tells a lot about the fate of the markets.

Would they slide further ?

Well charts don’t tell a happy story

HCL Tech , TCS, LTI

All in Stage 4 since long time.

Apart from breaking 30 wma, they had broken 40 WMA also.

Now breaking the strong support line since Jan 2021.

HCL Tech

TCS

LTI

Be cautious. Technically speaking , not a time for bottom -fishing.

[StageInvesting]

Closing this thread as one of the moderator calls all these projections as hypothetical and is not happy to see the bearish projections.

Tried to gave the other side of argument that all valuation models as well as future price projections are also based on certain hypothesis whether it is based DCF or future earnings projections- every model is based on certain assumptions - so everything is hypothetical.

Effort was to help everyone to follow certain minimum technical -indicators to become a better investor .

But one moderator does not want to see the other side of hypothesis ie. technicals-based hypothesis.

Hence closing this thread and good bye.

Projections given on certain markets-indexes/stocks – about 40% of them have already worked and are in open for everyone to see and majority of balance projections would work out in coming weeks/months (as mentioned earlier , all charts are for mid to long term view , not for trading purpose). Again a disclaimer here- these are probabilty set-ups -may or may not work - similar to fundamental investing - Manapuram, Idfc First Bank etc etc ,where all DCF models, future business assuptions have failed miserably.A successful investing model is where you have good success rate , failures would be there.As per our experience , Stage Investing and Elliot Waves works equally well as any other methods of investing.

Parting words: Be careful, don’t go for bottom fishing blindly, market internals are indicating a long bear market .

If a stock has fallen 50% , it can fall another 50% - Manapuram Fin is recent example.

Be very selective in buying anything and buy in instalments even if you wish to buy.

Certain vested interests want people to buy stock at any price, that’s how thier business models run . If they tell everyone to sell and to stay out of the markets for sometime, their business models would fail ( PMS, MFs, Small-Case etc etc. So be careful of these guys also.

[varun_kumar]

I think this is not right, this is a place to learn & collaborate on investing. Technical analysis is very much part of this. I certainly do not agree with the view of moderator in this case. Moreover this was a separate thread not like spamming other threads. It was for people who wanted to learn.

This thread should have continued & it was a mix for bearish & bullish sentiments. Not all were bearish in my view. If moderator happens to read this comment. I would say that this thread was good information for learners.

[KS16]

I like this thread very much and the education I picked up has been invaluable. If this is closed, I will miss this perspective that is very much relevant to these times…but, whom I to say this? I am lowly participant here and hence it is only a wish…from pure education point of view, it had done the purpose (in fact, more than that)…every one of these theories, has probability associated with it and hence whether it is hypothetical or not can be best assessed by time…

[Souresh_Pal]

this thread is very helpful

[Unknowninvestor]

I think your posts are interesting. I am primarily a fundamental investor but I have started looking at technicals from entry exit pov recently and it’s useful

I am surprised that any of the moderators said that. You haven’t peddled any services to any of the forum members so far so no reason why there should be any objection.

The credibility and integrity of the forum comes into question if that is Indeed the case.

[StageInvesting]

Here are the screenshots of the communication.

This is to inform that certain set of moderators :

i) Don’t want to listen any bearish view

ii)They have a very narrow view about investing space. And don’t believe that there can be other ways of investing also apart from fundamental investing

iii) They are ok if their own moderators keep giving hypothetical views -whether by technical projections , or hypothetical projections based on assumptions about DCF, Business growth and earning. But it seems soe of the forum moderators have a problem if someone else gives certain hypothesis and he/she is not part of the moderator group.

iv) If you go through the whole thread , you would agree that there was an effort to help, to guide and to make people aware about foocusing on price /volume and to understand basic techniques to become a better investor. But it seems that one of the moderators has issues with that.

Attaching screenshots of the communication from the said moderator : hiding the name of the same person as don;t want o make it personal. It is more about the principles of this forum - whether they only want one side views, one way of investing, and do they have double standards for moderators vs others.

Chances are that this post would also be flagged and would be removed.

[anjeshv4]

Dear moderator(s), kindly do not presume that Forum members are so naive that they’ll follow any random analysis/scenario discussed on this forum blindly without any self introspection. As the thread initiator aptly said, these are all probabilistic setups and shouldn’t be taken at face value without any homework. Even Hitesh Sir used to discuss Elliott Waves not too long ago on this forum.

Please let this thread running as it’s always good to read alternative analysis and techniques. I also hope @StageInvesting stays and abides by the rules of not linking to his personal blog. Let’s grow together.

[StageInvesting]

@StageInvesting

Acrysil

Although we have only abpout one year chart history, have tried to do some basic analysis.

It seems to be in Stage 4 ( has broken 30 WMA -orange line ) and Wave 2 ( ABC correction).

Acrysil

From 744 on the day of this post) to 576 …but some people would call the technical studies as hypothetical.

[Ashusharma]

I think this thread is good, one of few good free threads on TA. Hitesh Sir thread is the one of the best. This thread should be allowed. If any problem with sharing personal blog then the person can be warned and post flagged.

Cheers

[StageInvesting]

What is the harm in sharing a personal blog if the person is sharing knowldege - without promoting any services or products ?

Should the person open a fake account to do the same ?That would be unethical.

[Ashusharma]

It is more about guidelines and rules to follow, nothing else.

[kenshin]

I have enjoyed this thread. I have definitely refrained from going full in on the predictions made here since after all it is only a prediction with odds of success or failure. I have even liked the post by Mr Hitesh warning about the negatives of EWT.

One negative I found is a sense of confidence bordering on overconfidence in the language of this thread. The surety in language instead of usage of words like “Very likely/somewhat likely etc”. To the author’s credit, probabilistic outcomes are warned in the thread (which is great). On the other hand probabilistic language is hardly used (which can be because the theory is being presented with confidence and the assumption is that the reader does due diligence and understands it is all a prediction). I saw similar discussion in bull therapy channel. I had complained about it myself that people appear just too sure of themselves. I had gotten carried away and lost money there. But it was explained to me that this is part and parcel of bull market. I think similar reasoning can be applied here and allowed the thread to continue. Another thing, till now we have not heard anything from the mods. So we may not have a full picture.

As a side note not just about this thread → One major drawback I see in this forum backend → There is no way to somehow highlights posts that mods and multiple respected collaborators think are very important (which very likely mark the theses and antitheses of any method). I see endless posts repeating the same thing since many have not read the full thread or missed some post due to a long thread. Basically → highlight couple of posts that must be read before posting in the thread.

[StageInvesting]

Agree on the overconfidence part.

Our belief is that one needs to be overconfident towards his /her own bias to make serious money.

Doubtful people never achive outlier succes…

But yes, the trend/bias should be decided carefully.

[hitesh2710]

I think you should continue the thread and try to explain the charts you put up in a simplified way as you seem to do most of the times. Another thing to do is to explicitly mention that if the pattern plays out, so and so can be the outcome, rather than be overboard in projecting stuff.

And admins will need to do their job in a neutral way and its not a popular job. But you have to understand that they have a duty to do their stuff, and as posters, we should be okay to accept their decisions on whether to ignore or remove the flags which boarders have put up on certain posts they might feel inappropriate/offensive/irrelevant.

So the idea should be to take the criticisms/censorship in stride and go on.

You seem to be doing a good job and should continue to do so, but with a little more finesse and balance in the posts. rgds.

[prasanna]

This thread has to be continue as it gives a lot of confidence to learn about stage investing and EW. its up to individual whether they want to learn or directly earn from borrowed conviction\tips\ recommendations in short term or to learn and be in the game for long term. And here i believe most of the guys are long term and happy to learn for the same…
I agree the bull therapy…is the same thread with some little difference in terns of language and way of putting his\her thoughts and 2nd is this thread is more concentrated on EW and Stan Weinstein way of investing (Stage) and nothing else.
I am regularly watching this thread and learning a lot from this …i think this thread should be live …
I would like to take this opportunity to thanks @StageInvesting for his work done as on date and looking forward to learn a lot from here …