SP Apparels Limited --- Can it be a steady compounder?

Price on date (April 30th 2017): Rs. 416/-

Market Cap: Rs. 1050 Crores; Sales: Rs. 477 Crores in 9M 2017;

SP Apparels is a 30 year old Garment and textile manufacturing company based out of Tirupur area in Tamil Nadu. It has 21 manufacturing facility within a radius of 125 km and employs about 9200 workers (non-contractual).

The company has two major business segments i.e. Garments and Retailing. Garment segment has full range of operation from Design – Spinning – Dyeing – Cutting – Printing – Embroidery – Sewing. They are focussed on small batch sized (20000 – 50000 pieces) child and kids wear segment of business and derive 90% revenue from the segment. Till recently its main business was in UK with 5 main clients namely Tesco (31%) / Asda (22%) / Primark 13%) / Mothercare (7%) / Dunnes Stores (3%) and had almost no direct presence in US, the largest kids wear market. The business had 70% of Garment revenue from designed kids wear and 30% of basic kids wear. Though the previous one is high margin but management plans to shift focus to make revenue mix 50:50 going forward as growth rate of basic kids wear is much higher. The company has recently forayed into US market with two small orders of basic variety garments. They are hopeful of increasing the business in coming days.

Company also has a fast growing, presently loss making retail division to manufacture, distribute and sale (including ecommerce sales) of Crocodile brand of shirts, T-Shirts, Polo shirts, trousers, sweatshirts and innerwear under exclusive arrangement (valid till 2021) with Crocodile International, Hong Kong. Brand license is owned through 70% subsidiary Crocodile Products Private Limited where remaining 30% is owned by Crocodile International. Crocodile earns a royalty on sale of the branded products. This segment constitutes 10% of the revenue.

The company came with a public issue in 2016 and raised about Rs. 215 Cr. The private equity fund, Jacob Ballas, took partial exit in the offer for sale portion of the IPO (total issue size Rs. 240 Cr). Jacob Ballas invested in 2006 in SP Apparels for 10% stake at Rs. 36 Cr. DSP Blackrock, Goldman Sachs and Birla Sunlife were anchor investors in the IPO.

The IPO proceeds were used to repay loan (Rs. 63 Cr); backward integration and plant balancing (Rs. 70 Cr) and retail expansion (Rs. 28 Cr). The balance money was for IPO expense (Rs. 15 Cr) and General corporate expenditures.

Post debt repayment the Debt Equity ratio would come down to 0.4 in FY 17 as per management and give them enough headroom for expanding Garment business volume. They also expect to breakeven the Crocodile retail business in next few quarters.

The uniqueness of the business model as per management is their ability to involve with the client from design stage and economically handle small batch sizes of unique designs. The design to delivery time is about 3- 6 months at pre agreed prices and hence they claim to be immune to cotton price fluctuations (need to be watched out).

The biggest immediate risk of the company comes from its ability to manage the currency fluctuations for various reasons across globe and its unpredictable nature. INR appreciation with depreciating GBP and uncertain outlook of US$ may temporarily dent its profitability unless it can negotiate well across its value chain. Presently even though they mainly supply to UK and Europe their 51% revenue is booked in USD and rest in GBP and Euro. In spite of the uncertainty, I expect ROE to be about 17% in FY 17 and can improve to 19% in FY 18.

The company also has a pending litigation in Indian court with Lacoste as the later claimed that Crocodile infringed on their logo. Any negative outcome may affect the retail business.

Investment Case: With backward integration the margins to improve going forward and foray into new customers, increase in sewing capacity (till recently outsourced), better traction with newly added customers (Primark and Dunnes) and improvement in retail operations with Crocodile brand can give a steady revenue and profit visibility going forward.

Not investment case: Smaller size compared to much bigger players will limit the growth possibilities with existing two largest customers especially in designed Kid swear (Tesco and Asda) segment. Currency fluctuations may act as a spoilsport in margin in the short and medium term. Labour intensive nature of the business may limit growth.

Disclosures: It is not a buy, sell or hold recommendations. The entire writing is for discussion purpose. Author holds the stock (~ 3% of PF) from Rs. 300/- level and runs a SEBI Registered investment and portfolio advisory https://aveksatequity.com. No trading in the stock has been done in past 30 days.

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Glad to see some of the VP veterans finding this interesting. As always, Aveek has captured it very succinctly, all i can do is expound on some of the pointers from my notes.

Business Rational:
There are few factors converging together which may have positive impact on EPS and ROE:

  • Debt reduction: Pre payment of high cost INR 630 M debt from the IPO proceeds. Impact has started reflecting in PnL already as28% reduction in finance cost in 9MFY17 vs. same duration FY16. This can be a big relief considering that they had interest outgo of INR 300M and 250M for FY 15 and 16 respectively. This amount is expected to come down to ~150MN by this financial year.

  • Backward Integration: Again INR 473 M from IPO is going towards backward integration. Cotton blowroom capacity has been increased from 3200KG/day to 5000KG/day as per last concall. This is scheduled to go upto 15000KG/day basis demand picking up. Spindels capacity to increased from 16,000 to 22,000 in phased manner. Yarn is approx 35% of raw material cost. Backward integration will be margin accretive.

  • Capacity expension: 19 new knitting machines added till Q3. Currently company has 3200 basic sewing machines which are slated to go up to 5200 by 2018. MD confirmed that out of this 300 has already been set up on Q3 and 500 by Q4. So, now company will have 4000 sewing machines. As per commentary, they have revenue/machine of INR 1.5 ml at full capacity. Com[any expects to expend production from 50 mil piece per year to 80 mil per year by 2018.

  • Retail brand building: Approach is to have a brand building towards Crocodile brand. Currently 37 COCO (company owned company operated) and 3 (FOFO) stores in place. Intent is to add other 70 stores. Geographically, right now most of them are in south India. New expansion will happen mostly in north and north east to make it a pan india brand. These stores are doing approx INR 80M business and most of them are standalone profit making. However, at BU level they are in loss of ~45 mll primarily due to fixed overhead and brand building etc. As per commentary, expected to have BU level break-even in next 2 quarters.

They are also present and expending into MBO format where thrust in on essentials (vest,boxer hancky etc.) Also they are getting foot hold in large format stores (LFS) – Central (13), Megamart (22), Star Bazaar (10), D Mart (6), Unlimtied (10), Globus (12), Reliance Market (35), Walmart (21), More (6), Brand Factory (10).

Risk assessment/ Counter view:

  • My understanding is that they were even otherwise doing business around 40 mil piece against existing capacity of 50 mil pieces. So, in that sense they were not running short on capacity. Will be interesting to see how efficiently they scale-up market penetration viz a viz capacity. As long as capacity expansion is demand driven they should be ok, else it may cause pressure on management.

  • Geographical + client concentration: Currently SP in entirely UK focused exporter. That too with top 5 clients taking majority of business. This geographical + limited client concentration can have deep implication in todays word. Though management has shared that they are moving towards US client and derisk by taking lead client count to 10. In the above post Aveek has confirmed that they already got two small orders from US clients confirming MDs commentary in Q3 concall

  • Retail focus: This retail foray could be double edge sword as well. First, Crocodile is not a patented brand for them. Licence lies with subsidiary Crocodile product pvt ltd which is a 70-30 JV between SP apparels and Crocodile international. Second, amount earmarked for 278 Mil from IPO proceed. This amount will get exhausted in setting up those 70 new COCO stores. How to further expend this retail franchise? Afraid, that stand alone retail segment may not have enough of profitability/free cash generation to take care of any meaningful expansion beyond that.

  • Currency Fluctuation: Historically they had significant currency losses. Hope they have adequate checks and balances this time around. They mostly have a design to delivery cycle of ~90 days and CFO mentioned during concall that they get into currency hedging immediately to lock current INR revenue. Also, despite UK dominated business they most of the contracts in USD.

Overall, looks to be an interesting stock to track closely.

Disc: Not invested currently. However, this may change subject to notion of adequate MoS or updates by next results/concall.
Above summary is based on research reports, con call, past few quarter presentation etc. Please do own due diligence.

Thanks,
Tarun

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A concern I have is that Crocodile is not a very well known or recognised brand. So, not very certain how successful it will be in India. However, the space is large and their is large opportunity for many good players to co-exist and thrive.

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Very true. And don’t base your investment thesis on Crocodile brand sales.

Crocodile is a very small brand with total sales of only Rs. 214 Cr worldwide and Royalty income of Crocodile group Hong Kong is only Rs. 29 cr in FY 16

But for a company like SP Apparel who has long standing customers like Tesco / Asda / Mothercare, the range of possibilities gets opened when they have a retail presence … They can sell their own Kidswear and even other products / brands too in a future date. Presently it is a small business for SP Apparel and the strategic asset being created can be used effectively. But it may become a wrong investment too.

One positive part of the company which possibly protects the downside is management won’t commit any capital to Retail expansion for Crocodile beyond Rs. 28 Crore committed in the IPO prospectus. If it pays up then it is a good “long dated option”. If not, the company doesn’t lose that much.

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@aveekmitra Do they also supply to Walmart? As they are existing suppliers to Asda, which is a Walmart company.

It seems the business model of SP Apparels is similar to Kitex Garments which is US centric, however there is a huge difference in their margin profiles.

How do you see comparison between these two players on business/management quality and growth prospects ?

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Kitex would be a better bet compared to SP Apparels in long run I suppose. One offcourse due to the focus on high margin US market and secondly because the short term slowdown in growth is not stopping them from taking all the right decisions to position themselves strongly in coming years (going almost debtless, capacity expansion, own brand & design studio helps them forward integrate for better margins etc.). Also as Sabu Jacob has mentioned often that labor cost would be a key factor in determining margins in future, automation & technology upgradation is what they are investing in…staying one up on competition.

Disc: Invested in Kitex Garments. Views can be biased.

Mr. P Sunder Rajan, MD, SP Apparels Ltd & Mr Ang Boon Tian, MD, CIPL

@aveekmitra - somehow I have a different impression with regard to their retail aspirations. Hope you will help me see it in right context.

Financially they may for now be limited to INR 287 M as this is the earmarked amount from IPO towards branded retail expansion however, they have some mega plans towards retail.

What I make out from the commentary is, Intentional decision to focus on north and north eastern part while adding those 70 new stores. With that they will be Pan India player - per say. Standalone, the stores are mostly in positive. By scale, they becoming BU level net positive. At that juncture in future, premise is to milk the brand cow via franchise route.

As and when the premise plays out, the next frontier is going to be new market segments i.e kids wear and ladies wears. In fact, they are of the opinion to revive the near dead own brand Natalia.:

This retail is so much so in the management mind space that they have gone to the length to explain the profit sharing, managing unsold inventory - AS AND WHEN franchise come-in picture in that distant future.

Attached is the Q3 concall transcript:
Q3-FY17-TRANSCRIPT-1.pdf (482.5 KB)

As I shared my apprehension in the first post, retail is a double edge sword. We have names at both end of the spectrum - ROE of ~10-12% to ROE of ~40%. Differentiation is in the fact that former one are just re-callable names and later own are aspirations Brands in true sense (much beyond recall names).

My reservation with the retail foray is for the fact that crocodile is not a brand with great/reasonable pricing power at this moment - neither in India nor in global context. This may end up into another me-too or a notch above brand minus any pricing power.

Even if not for the financial commitment, management bandwidth, strategical decisions priority etc. will be a corollary to this retail aspiration.

Lastly, what intrigues me is the fact that they have such plans for the brand which they dont own entirely (crocodile) in the first place, strange isn’t it? A licencing agreement is always subject to market dynamics, more so at the stage where it has gained a niche for itself.

Thanks,
Tarun

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@T11 Your apprehensions may be correct. But an alternate take on the issue may be…

  1. The retail / brand business is very small and company has limited investment plan as on date. As I mentioned earlier it is a “long dated” option for me.
  2. I go more by what management does than what management says. So, we need to see on a future date based on success or failure of the retail foray. If we see they continue to pump in money and in spite showing poor return metrics, then we may take a call at that point. It is unfair to brush all retail business as bad or it’s bound to fail.
  3. Crocodile as a brand hardly have a traction but all depends on their marketing strategy … To be successful, one need not be a all India premium brand.
  4. The brand license agreement is valid till 2021 … We need to see how much traction the brand develops till then. If does well, find no plausible reason why it can’t be renewed and if fails, the question becomes irrelevant. BTW, Jubilant Food also doesn’t own Domino brand… They are user. So, I don’t find much to worry here as on date.

Lastly, I bought at Rs. 300/- based on valuation and range of possibilities which can play out on entire business rather than on the basis of what negative may happen if retail foray fails. My thesis was, even if it fails, it won’t cost the company much.

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System 2 thinking at its best. Since I see the gap first hand - trying to map and measures all variables upfront vs allow things to unfold with limited downside risk. Hope it will stay with me in days to come. :slight_smile:

Thanks again

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I had a look at SP last year. Just glanced through this thread. Adding few things that I had come up with last year and maybe is not a repetition from what I read above.

Discl: Not invested, not tracking.
Note: Copy pasting from my last year’s work and haven’t re-validated the info in present.

Some info on UK market (for what its worth)-
*** SP’s clients are well established clients and are doing well in the kidswear segment
*** Primark is like UK’s Big Bazaar (when it comes to fashion wear shopping etc.), TESCO is a value for money super market chain (UK’s Big Bazaar when it comes to house hold grocery and other household stuff) and ASDA is just a notch above TESCO but also positions as value for money super market chain
*** ASDA leads with 14% market share in kidswear, TESCO is 3rd and has 8% and Primark is also coming up bigtime in this segment. So in effect it means that SP supplies to clients who have almost 30% or more market share in UK market (making an assumption here that Primark, Mothercare and Dunnes put together would have atleast 8% market share)
*** UK’s birth rate is 1.90 per female which is the 3rd highest in Europe and at multi decade highs
*** Immigration has contributed to this birth rate going up. Most of these immigrants are not that well to do and would shop at places like Primark.
*** Average salary in UK too I think is around 27000 GBP per annum, which kind of tells me that people would shop more at places like Tesco, ASDA and Primark for kidswear and I think this can be seen in the market share being commanded by ASDA and TESCO.
*** Actual number of births are flattish mostly around 7 lacs children born per year, BUT value of kidswear shopping is rising by 5% as parents spending on kidswear has shown an uptrend during bad economic times as well and is expected to continue

On hedging - Mgmt. said in Fin year 2017’s Q1 concall that company hedges 80% of its forex exposure in some kind of a phased manner (they had explained better in the concall and can’t recollect the details).

Cheers.

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As results were very good. Now needs to see management can turnaround retail operation as said or not. Though revenue share is 10%, it will be very good test of management capability. Near term trigger is new clients from US. Does anybody have last concall updates?

Invested: since March 2017.

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Q417 Earnings presentation http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/72c590a2-f5c4-4a35-a117-2ece6b2576e9.pdf

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Have a few questions for investors tracking this company.

  1. What is the number of sewing machines the company has currently? The prospectus mentions 4874 in 2016 plus additional 550 added in 2017. Is the number correct?
  2. The working capital has increased significantly in this year. The backward integration is not even fully complete yet the cfo is subdued due to WC requirements. Whats the reason for that? Which brings me to another point. WC is surely expected to increase further as the copmany backward integrates. While this may increase the margins by 200 bps, the capital employed in the business will increase by a fair amount too. Why not remain asset light at the expense of margins but lower capital intensity - like indocount.
  3. What is the royalty paid on sales of crocodile. In fy 16 it was approx 5% while in 2017 it was 3%

just went through the 2015 ipo drhp. The company restructured it’s state bank loan in 2009 and again corporation bank loan in 2014, due to which it was rated icra d in 2014. Following ipo, it got upgraded to BBB and now again upgraded to A. The promoters have not shared any rationale why the same happened twice ( is it liquidity issue, low demand, capex overrun etc. ). Has anyone met or spoken to promoters and can share any thoughts on management integrity in above episodes or were the above defaults just financial mismatch issues?
disclosure: Not invested, still analysing it.

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FY18 Q1 Results: http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/0cd7e99e-d5f3-4257-b769-386f961af56a.pdf

SP mentions change in retail strategy in this result notice. I am wondering if this is the right strategy to open “large format” retail stores? For one, the brand is not a very popular one, second- retail vs. online battle is slowly going to online retailers way and third - why not concentrate on steady business or repay further debt?
Disc: no holding

Q2FY18 Presentation : http://www.s-p-apparels.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Q2-FY18-Presentation.pdf

Q2FY18 Concall Transcript : http://www.s-p-apparels.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Q2-FY18-TRANSCRIPT.pdf

Key Summary

Garments:

  • Garment division revenue down 4% - attributed to Brexit (Pound and Euro depreciation)
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin of garment division improved from 20% to 20.4%
  • Added 3 three new non-UK customers - Garan, US, K-Mart US, and Kiabi, France. In process to add 2 more customers.
  • Current capacity utilization : 78% with 4050 machines, can support another 15% topline growth.
  • Current Order book 230 Cr. Customer Mix for H2FY18 : 10% Non UK, FY19 and beyond : 20-25% Non UK.
  • Expect currency mix of 50% Dollar, 30% Euro and 20% pound.
  • Backward integration capex ongoing. New factory in Kovilpatti to be operational in Apr '19 with 350 sewing machines. Support 7-8% topline growth.
  • Done volumes of 12 million (Q1) and 11 million (Q2). Hope to cover 27 million in Q3-Q4 to reach 50 million for FY18.

Crocodile

  • Revenue grew by 33%. Turned EBITDA positive for the first time. EBITDA at 6.3%
  • Stores : 35 (COCO), 12(FOFO). Look to convert existing COCO stores into FOFO stores.
  • LFS : Added 40 more,currently at 172 stores. Target to have 400 LFS by FY19.

One Off Items

  • Q2 MTM loss of 41.1 Million compared to MTM gain of 1.5 million Q2 last year because of foreign currency fluctuations.
  • Reported interest is 76 million (Accounting Ind-AS) while actual interest payout is 33 million Rs.

Key Risk

  • Duty drawback of only 2% for exporters. An impact of 2-3% at EBITDA level. H1 has a duty drawback of 7.5%, while H2 onward it would be only 2% with credits for central excise, net impact of 2-3% on EBITDA.
  • Forex remains a key risk items as there is no pass through facility. Whatever is the currency risk from an order is to be fully borne by SPAL.
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Promoters have done some acquisition in the market recently; roughly about 1.4 Cr worth.