I also feel market has over-reacted to the demerger news…Actually just to re-check the thesis, now that demerger is given, did some rough valuation maths as below…
FY25 est rev: 1300+ cr (120 cr crams, 1200 cr base business).
FY29 est rev - crams: 500 cr FY29 est rev - base business (12-14% cagr): 2000 cr @ 20% ebitda
Assuming by FY29
Debt will be repaid and
For crams, PE will come for 20% stake…
Rough FY29 mcap could be:
Crams: 4000 cr (8x-10x P/S), 3200 cr for existing shareholders since 20% will be owned by PE
Base business: 4000 cr (10x Ebitda)
Current mcap : 2300 cr Estimate mcap for existing shareholders (FY29): 7200 cr (3x returns)