I closed my Twitter and opened this forum page,some big popular Twitter handle posted his reduced 6 stock concentrated PF reducing some stocks. No offense intended,but I can see your PF is exact copy of that popular Twitter handle PF.
Not sure how long you are in Investing space but if your entry point is not same as that person do you think it will work like his return?
Honestly I don’t understand the essence of your question. I do not use twitter at all. Also, not sure how my portfolio with currently 30+ stocks can be exact copy of someone with 6 stocks concentrated portfolio?
Regarding return profile, it would depend on multiple factors…entry point is one, most important allocation is another and finally holding period. So I don’t think just by having similar stocks in portfolio, the return profile can be similar.
I can be wrong in my assessments above…
2 Likes
Well it’s good to have some common names with good investors, although it does not mean much to me and never a buy criteria for me… btw ITC would be common with hundreds of good investors and all others are well known names…as matter of fact if you see Asian paints, pidilite & Nestle maybe common with coffee can portfolio of saurabh Mukherjea…if I am not wrong once even Marico used to be but guess they sold and I doubled up later… although I did not follow all this actively…With limited universe of good quality companies it’s bound to have some common names between many investors and I think this discussion may not serve much purpose for anyone…also having 5-6 names common in a 30+ portfolio means nothing in my opinion…
So good to know but as you have rightly acknowledged that all that matters is allocation and holding period and not just names…
2 Likes
Hi @Investor_No_1 (would like to know your name :)),
Did you get a chance to go through the results of companies in qsr space,…devyani, sapphire and rba all have declared their results…curious to know your views on it and have you further decided to consolidate your holdings in this space. thanks.
I did have a cursory look so far as was not doing well…need to check details…all I can say now is that jubilant done well, liking it’s Domino’s new store opening momentum, CEO issue also seem to be sorting…burger king growth also looks fine…point is their results were never an issue for me as I had 0 doubt in growth and good results…doubt had been on their valuations (what street would give them), their business strategy & fundamentals and the role that they would play in my portfolio…
I had already got rid of sapphire and Westlife…for now have exposure to burger king, jubilant and devyani…i currently see them playing different roles…burger king is more of a small boy growing to a man, jubilant is a man tring to get better in new skillsets while growing its core simultaneously and devyani is another mature individual doing good with sperate skillset…
Consolidation would remain in back of my mind and focus would be on intangibles as and when I get or perceive via information in public domain or even if they falter badly in growth in results (remote chances)
2 Likes
Just wanted to get your views on below two thought chains in regards to Burger King.
- Constant dilution in equity
- Future retail situation playing out
On 1st, this should be slowing down as IPO date gets further , till now, haven’t seen it’s pace slowing down , be it attributed to actual IPO reasons or foreign markets foray etc.
On 2nd, although barring depreciation, they’re profit positive but as number of stores keep growing, so will stale/ bad for business stores as well which should have ideally been closed if they were not able to generate profits.
Aside from above, I like the QSR gross margins and general business direction.
1 Like
I think this has been the biggest issue and I am very much wary of that. Precisely thats why I did not ramp up my allocation significantly as this is an area I do not know how future would unfold…Need to keep close watch on this as well as future capital allocation…
Agree, its a known issue and need to be monitored. I think if not for this continuous equity dilution & unpredictable capital allocation, the stock today may have been at least 50% higher even in current hyper inflation situation. (I maybe wrong in my assessments)
Is this something specific to Burger King India you have observed that their unprofitable or poor store metrics stores are growing? I would think its part of the QSR game unless its something very much off as compared to Industry…
Overall my conviction in QSR franchisees of India is not very high but still have around 3-4% allocation to be part of the game. May exit if continue to see strategic issues or ramp up as and when see better clarity and business models…so far have done peace with sub 5% allocation…
Back to my thoughts on Feb 4, Market is finally punishing the stocks hard and the real enemy - Inflation has become even more vigorous because of multiple reasons.
Somehow at back of my mind I knew that stocks should be punished hard and maybe now also know that we may have a difficult next 3-6 months…but should I have sold 60-80% of portfolio back in Feb or even now…at least 50% of portfolio if not more…?
I am no chart experts but still understand the things affecting markets…If I resort or would have resorted to selling, I should be expert in technicals as well. Either I sell out completely for then, technical would not matter or if I need to chose 50-60% of portfolio to sell, again either I sell in a robotic manner where I sell fixed ratio of each share I hold or I should understand technical to sell the right stocks and hold the remaining…
Multiple analysts believe that recession is around corner, some even say an upcoming lost decade equivalent to a depression and what not…
I have decided not to sell a single share (Unless of course if a rebalancing or rotation needed somewhere down the line) In my mind I have already taken a 20-30% more cut on my overall portfolio and decided that I would use my monthly salary and some small savings to buy the crash, if any, over next 3-6 months. True test of my portfolio stocks would be seen and also my strategy as well…
No doubt, selling now (or before) and buying on crash over next 3-6 months would have been more beneficial, but thats not who I am and neither my temperament nor the way I look at Markets/Stocks. I would stick to my strength and what I am capable of executing…
Believe it or not, FII/Pension funds etc. have no where else to go after 6 months or whenever the tide turns. They are heavy sellers but thanks to domestic institutions & retail investors like us, market have been holding well. The next crack would come if domestic institutions/we crack and yes many of us would…for me, I have already taken the crack of 30% in my mind and made peace with it…
I see this as a cycle of 6 months - 1 year, would be great to have cash now but I am not comfortable raising it from my own portfolio…
The same people selling would come running to buy when the cycle turns…
Another aspect is, that while some part of this inflation is structural, rest is not…rest is event based with the escalation in geo-political tension and also the china lockdown due to Corona etc. These event can turn around at any moment I do not know and hence have decided not to time the market…even if I decide to time…I am incapable of doing it both mentally and physically (too many clicks to be done for selling & and the re-buying 
)
Disc: Above are thoughts purely for academic purposes and I can be completely wrong in all my assessments. I am a very less experienced person and certainly not eligible to give any advice. No buy/sell recommendation
11 Likes
I think, whenever we buy a company, before purchase, we always do due diligence. You also must be looking at ROE, ROCE, PAT, Margin, products of the company, what is the debt situation , promoter quality and overall performance. So how does it matter, if the stock price goes down in short time due to any factors, whether its interest rates, geopolitical situation or covid etc? Does our selling of that company depends on these factors? Selling criteria should be private to that particular company. If that company’s business model is deteriorating or consistently its product sales are going down or profit margins are shrinking. Now these things should happen “consistently” , meaning over a period of few quarters or years…then only you can think of selling that company. Otherwise, we should hold that company as long as possible. If its a good company in the first place( and it must be, otherwise why would you buy it?) , in the long run, it will give GDP(7%) + Inflation( 7%) = 14 % returns anyways…
5 Likes
Thanks for these positive comments in an otherwise gloom & doom environment around, it means a lot coming at time when many pundits being harbinger to an ugly bear market!
I believe why I got into thinking mode is because these bear callers highlight the fact of some ugly prior long bear markets where even good companies (like the ones we own) also must have fallen 40-50% or more and remained down for a long time…maybe couple years…they must have had even worse experience with some not so good firms and realized losses in panic…that made me think does it make sense to come in cash even though we own solid companies as bear markets spare none…short bear markets are fine but longer ones like couple years will test true character, patience etc etc.
So I am thinking what if the top quality firms I own get battered 40-50% (some IT names are already down 40-50% from top, although I still have decent returns in them as holding majority of them since 2020 lows)…how will I react then and will I have the character to hold them in those down trodden prices for next 2 years if bear market remains that long in worst case…would I then regret not having sold earlier to buy later?
I agree all these thoughts are coming from lot of bear noise around, recession noise around…I am trying to digest all the noise and hence writing down thoughts…good to see your positive thoughts under such circumstance
4 Likes
What is more deadlier than a Bear market/Recession?..Fear of one!
Over last few week in a journey of my evolving thoughts, one thing that I have realized is the above statement. Indeed, the fear of the unknown can be more deadlier than the unknown itself…that is why its often said that courage in mightier than strength
Why I felt so is because it is this very fear which pushes us do unwanted things during such occasions and take unreasonable decisions at precisely the wrong time. Our natural flow of thinking gets disrupted and we start behaving and taking actions differently…
And this is when we have a relatively small value in equities…
I can only imagine how the big shots (specially those who manage their own money and not public) control their thoughts under such occasions.
@Vijay_Kiran had rightly mentioned in another thread that long bear markets is intolerable for all and cited an example where an year long bear with mere 20% drawdown could result in 10 years of expenses going down for a retiree…
I guess the big shots have reached a level where a small drawdown would anyway result in multiple life time of expenses so nothing matters much to them…
Another point is - how much the retiree (or any person for that matter) benefited from investing to reach a certain corpus size before the drawdown began…If in preceding decade for a current portfolio size of say X, half of it is result of accumulated profits alone, then a 20-30% drawdown for an year or so becomes part of the game…Provided liquidity for at least 2-3 years of expenses & emergency fund is in good shape…
In the end, I feel that stock market is all about fear & greed…and if we are able to manage these two emotions, a lot of work is done…and this control can only & only come via first hand experience of circumstances…
To control the emotion of fear - I have, for now, thought over a concept of how much percentage of one’s “liquid networth” is into equity. As liquidity is what matters in trying times and this should always be a comfortable figure for self…
Disc: Above are random evolving thoughts only for academic purposes. Not eligible for any advice as myself learning
8 Likes
@Investor_No_1
Great thought and nicely articulated.
To add on the point where I left is that for normal, common and average investor like me I prefer to err on the side of fear than greed. With immense fear in my mind i am approaching pre-retirement phase much earlier than anticipated. My approach is always ultra conservative and i strongly feel that one (common, normal, average person) should keep atleast 10 years of annual expense in bank and fixed deposits without getting perturbed with the non sense of inflation, emergency fund, liquid fund blah blah… and then start building equity corpus slowly over period on next 10-12 years keeping annual expense in tight control. It worked for me without losing any peace of mind and ofcourse sleep. Chasing too much money and greed is recipe for permanent loss of health, deteriorates mental balance and leads to drug kind of addiction in stock market.
Lastly I realized that sip in index right from day1 is best instrument for a common people who dont have time and aptitude to study and compare companies performance but want to take advantage of equity investing.
8 Likes
A little too early to pull the trigger of topping up IT part of portfolio. Another15-20% drop from the top up prices. IT still form only 6.5% of portfolio.
<2020 - I disliked investing in Indian IT
2020 - I realized the significance of Indian IT and initiated positions
2021 - In midst of roaring bull market & multibagger return, felt a 5% allocation was too less.
April - May 2022 - IT corrected 25%, I decided to top up allocation - a little too soon
July 2022 - Another 20% dip from top up prices - Now waiting for another leg of correction - No idea if current bottom is near or far.
NASDAQ down >30% as well
With NASDAQ ETFs around, I had been thinking last month that any incremental capital should go to NASDAQ or Indian IT. Target is to have technology close to 10% of portfolio.
With this background, I did some basic checks on how overrated NASDAQ may be and how underrated Indian IT…
NASDAQ
7.8 times since 2009 lows
4.4 times since 2007 Highs
2.4 times since 2000 Highs
7.9 times since 2002 lows
3.9 times in 10 Years
NIFTY IT Index
5.7 times since 2009 lows
2.6 times since 2007 Highs
9.2 times since 2000 Highs
17 times since 2003 lows
3.1 times in 10 Years
TCS
26 times since 2009 lows
10 times since 2007 Highs
5.3 times in 10 Years
Infosys
10 times since 2009 lows
5 times since 2007 Highs
8.8 times since 2000 Highs
36.5 times since 2003 lows
5.5 times in 10 years
Clearly, Infy & TCS both have beaten NASDAQ handsomely over various time frames.
NASDAQ has fared better than NIFTY IT only during last decade or so. That’s probably because of meteoric rise of the likes of Amazon, Tesla etc.
The analysis and thought is in progress…my inclination at the moment is towards consolidating my Indian IT position, if given further chance…in any case I am not that good an Index investor…Yet
Disc: Invested, biased, post only for academic purposes. I can be wrong in all my assessments. Not eligible to give any advice.
3 Likes
Just a basic query regarding Simple Investing…
Is there any similar platform like ValuePickr for Mutual funds in-depth analysis and study? Kindly provide the link…
Purpose is to study the mutual funds across caps and sectors…
1 Like
Hey, I am not aware of any such exhaustive and full of knowledge site for Mutual fund specific. I usually do analysis (whatever little) on MF via moneycontrol website manually, where I see comparison data, historical data, detailed portfolio and portfolio addition/deletions etc. for each MF available…
For exhaustive details from like minded people, I think what better than Valuepickr itself. You may start a thread on same and keep it active!
Regarding Simple Investing - its a name for my own evolving strategy/ thought process - target is to reach as Simple strategy as possible with time…
Hope that helps…
1 Like
Do check Freefincal.com. It is run passionately by IIT Chennai Physics professor Dr. Pattaviraman Murari. You will find lots of in-depth analysis.
@Investor_No_1 Just went through your thread after a long time. Delighted to see that you are sharing your insights and experiences regularly. I have become irregular at Valuepickr, else would have engaged with your posts regularly. One question for you. You have been in the markets for a decenly long time. How different has been your experiences with the latest bull run compared to previous bull runs of 2014, 2017?
3 Likes
@Investor_No_1
This might help you for your life insurance pics
First_year_premium_of_Life_Insurers_as_at_30_06_2022_English_version.pdf (878.8 KB)
I think SBI Life doing good
1 Like
Thanks, glad to see you liked reading it. Good to see you active after long time I guess
Ohh, any particular reason for this or just have been busy? On lighter note where else are you getting the intellectual dose from?
Would have loved to have some engaging discussions, we can still have…the main purpose of thread is to have engaging discussions and learn from them!
Now, this is a very intense question and honestly have a lot to think and introspect to give you an answer. I may not be completely right in my interpretations in the first attempt…Let me try with whatever little I remember and is on top of my mind…
2014 - I started my learnings around 2012 or so…hence by 2014 I was still making mistakes…(maybe even making them now but will realize only in hindsight). The big mistake of Koutons had made me little mature at least to look for somewhat decent businesses. I remember this bull run might have given me my first winner - Bajaj Consumer. From 2011 or so till 2014-15 or so would have made around 4X on this…nothing great to talk about…except that it had been on my largest holdings and that made some difference…Also, its rise was actually nothing much to do with bull run around then and more so with its own fundamental changes back then.
I was busy learning in 2014 so hardly noticed the bull run and neither concentrated on the bull as intention and my own investing stage was too early to make use of any bull run with conscious intentions…
2017 - Again, I don’t really remember this period as a significant bull run for me except maybe remember my then largest holding (by huge margin) - L&T Finance quickly running up 6X in 2-3 years…Other all compounding stories fared decently - moving steadily ahead but nothing multibagger. I would call this period as a miss on opportunities to accumulate some of the future gems at great prices…I did accumulate some but not in quantities I would have liked…Also, with the NBFC crisis, I missed on L&t Finance super gains, only to completely exit 2 years later in 2019 at approx 3X (lost 2 years and halved the gains as well meaningfully denting the CAGR but building the learning I so very much needed).
2021 - I think this has been the first bull run which I really felt, experienced and learnt from it (Thinking back the reason for that could be that 2020 also has been the first meaningful crash I experienced as well). Earlier all ones I was merely busy around learning basics. This one, again I was busy building a portfolio with right businesses and right allocations but as I did not sell earlier picks in the 2020 crash, instead ended up buying them more in every big dips and entered some new good businesses and sectors - I ended up getting multibagger returns in some of them I picked in 2020/21 and subsequent decent CAGR in the compounding stories as well.
Yet again (like story of L&t Finance), I lost some multibagger returns in IT sector picks (Tata Elxsi is still 10X, LTI is still 4X, LTTS is 3X but allocations had been small as my conviction in IT was just beginning in 2020). Tata Elxsi is holding well but others have fallen 40-50% from peak. However, IT is now core to me and I did what we do in core holdings - not sell but buy more in crashes. I have bought LTI/LTTS at 3-4-5X my initial buy prices. They have no doubt diluted my CAGR but I am not here in race to maintain top notch CAGR all the time. I am here to own the businesses I like in right allocations.
Another story of Tata Consumer (my largest holdings by huge margin today) and ITC (my second largest holding which I started accumulating only from 2020 onwards) have made meaningful difference. Story of Tata Consumer (like that of Bajaj Consumer in 2014 and L&T Finance in 2017) has been more stock specific rather than bull run induced…the common thing in all three and savings grace for me has been that all three best performers so far had been my largest holdings all three times so far…(albeit Tata Elxsi has been best performer for me so far with a very small allocation to begin with). I have bought Tata consumer at 7-8X my initial buy price as well. I have also exited many businesses, sectors that do not tick all the boxes for me now and hardly tend to look back at them (something I must improve)…so you can see I am still learning and busy building the right portfolio with right allocation for me…looks like the structure of portfolio & strategy is more important to me than making use of bull runs so far and that says that I am still early in my investing cycle so far…
Would be great to meaningfully engage and know your own experience in each of these bull periods
Disc: Invested in Tata Consumer, Tata Elxsi, LTI, LTTS etc. and some other names mentioned above hence biased. Post only for academic purposes. I can be completely wrong in all my assessments. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Not eligible for any advice.
9 Likes
Really nice to know your journey from 2012. It almost a decade. And you have done really good with many multibaggers like Tata Elxsi, LTI,LTTs etc. If you have kept the records of cash inflow and cash outflow as per dates mentioned, then you might have calculated XIRR…for 10 years, what it ranges in? this will give me some idea of what i can expect in next decade…May be if i follow your footsteps…
1 Like