Looking at this year heat wave and massive transformer failures, I am expecting, good units might have been sold. A Wild guess. Let’ see.
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I think they had some inventory left - so numbers will be better from Q4 and much better from Q1 of last year
Shilchar is not into that kind of transformers. So what works for the bulk transformer manufacturers like Voltamp BBL, etc. won’t work for Shilchar. Most of the margins come from Export to EU and US, and in domestic consumption also the transformers they produce are mostly used in small scale industrial applications. So I think the push factors for them are quite different from other players in the market, and hence the higher margin.
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Recently CareEdge has upgraded Credit Ratings of Shilchar on account of improved performance.
One interesting point I found in the ratings report is hidden guidance of 700 revenue by the management.
To dig deeper if we check these credit reports of last 3 years we can clearly see the number given in those reports is matched or exceeded by the company
In 2021-22 they did 180 crores against guidance of 175 crores in credit report. Similarly, in
2022-23 280 crores against guidance of 250 crores and in
2023-24 397 crores against guidance of 400 crores.
Surprisingly, management is guiding for 700 crores revenue despite delay in capex by four months for phase-1 and one month for phase-2. But again, the company has so far over delivered on every front and have been quite no-nonsense and that gives confidence.
In my opinion if they achieve this 700 crores, in ideal world this could be approximately 100 crores, 150 crores, 200 crores and 250 crores for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively with some hits and misses.
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Amazing observation!
Looks like company underpromises, overperforms! Great observation!
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