My KTAs from today’s Q1FY25 earnings concall:
-
Ajmer Comp C pilot project should get over in next 2 quarters. It will help all stakeholders to learn from this pilot project and move forward with expanding it to the wider audience.
-
Ajmer project includes solarization of 200-250 feeder pumps. So their capability is good for both Individual Pump Solarization and Feeder Level Solarization.
-
Shakti Pumps seems to be having an edge in Comp C through their patent. Their technology allows the system to transfer solar energy (electricity) to the grid automatically post pump has been used to draw the water. Where as, according to the management, for competitor’s grid connected solar pump, a human has to go and flip the switch to start the transfer of solar energy (electricity) to the grid. This can be a strong competitive advantage for farmers to choose only Shakti Pumps for their Comp C investment.
-
Tendering process for fixing solar pump prices are completed with 5 more quarters to go before next round of tender bidding starts for next leg of Comp B. So there is good chance that windfall margins might continue for next few quarters if solar panel prices remain subdued. There is good chance that to bid competitively, management might bid at lower prices and effectively we should see 16-17% kind of EBITDA from H2 of FY26.
-
New capacity to go live from FY27.
-
One thing which I am not able to digest is that management has guided 30% growth in FY25. So that means about 1800cr topline. Management has already guided for 500cr in Q2. Bringing total to 1070cr for H1FY25. This leaves about 360cr in Q3 and Q4 which would be very poor Q3 and Q4 given current strong tailwinds in Kusum scheme. Either management is being super conservative or there is something that management is hiding from investors.
Disc: invested with no transactions in last 30 days.