Shakti Pumps - solar shakti (power)!

Nuvama’s Management meet note

shakti-pumps-india–management-meet-note .pdf (1.1 MB)

Projections by Nuvama

Margins are not sustainable…
Fresh orders are required to sustain the valuations.

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Shakti Pumps Concall Notes - May 2024

Financial Performance:

  • Achieved highest revenue of Rs. 1,371 crores and profitability of Rs. 142 crores in FY24.
  • Q4 FY24 performance was the highest ever with revenue of Rs. 609 crores and PAT of Rs. 90 crores.
  • EBITDA margins of 16.4% for the financial year.
  • Anticipate stable EBITDA margins around 14-15% going forward.
  • Order book of around Rs. 2,400 crores providing revenue visibility for 18 months.
  • Recent order accumulation of approximately Rs 243 crores under the PM Kusum scheme.
  • Robust revenue growth with government business revenue growing by about 52% YoY to Rs 945.1 crores in FY24.
  • Export sales increased by around 23% YoY to Rs. 286.1 crores in FY24.

Future Growth and Strategy:

  • Government’s focus on deployment of solar pumps presents significant opportunities.
  • Company stands at the forefront of the solar pump revolution.
  • Plans to double existing capacity of pumps/motors, inverters/VFDs, and structures.
  • Raised Rs. 200 crores through QIP for expansion.
  • Investment in Wholly Owned Subsidiary, Shakti EV Mobility Private Limited, for transition into the electric vehicle space.
  • Focus on innovation with two new patents received this quarter, contributing to a robust patent portfolio.
  • Commitment to driving sustainable growth and creating long-term value for stakeholders.

Order Book and Execution:

  • Order book of Rs. 2,400 crores with execution timelines of 18 months for Rs. 1,500 crores and 90-120 days for the remaining orders.
  • Strong order inflow from states like Maharashtra, Haryana, UP, and Rajasthan.
  • Expectations of continued order inflow and growth in the future.

Market Share and Competitive Position:

  • Market share at 30% with a commitment to increase it further.
  • Strong position in the solar pump industry with a focus on quality and efficiency.
  • Differentiation through the use of innovative technology like VFDs.

Margins and Operational Efficiency:

  • Improved margins due to operational efficiency and scale.
  • Operating margin guidance of 15% for FY25.
  • Margins impacted positively by decreased raw material prices and operational improvements.
  • Solar cells sales contributing significantly to revenue, with margins around 30%.

Industry Dynamics and Opportunities:

  • Potential for significant growth in the solar pump industry.
  • Focus on Atmanirbhar Bharat and indigenous manufacturing.
  • Positive outlook on the EV segment with plans for expansion and quality stabilization.
  • Expectation of sustained growth and market leadership in the future.
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I have major doubt or confusion!!


so present capacity is 5 lakh and 100 % utilization gives around Rs 2,500 crore top line and grossly realization per pumps set(including solar pv) would be Rs 50,000 !
if my calculations are correct then per pump realization is very low !!
can anyone throw some light on this would be helpful in my analysis!!

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  • Shakti Pumps has been granted its 14th patent for a technology named “METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR SOFT START, SOFT STOP, PROTECTION & BROWN OUT OPERATION OF A GRIDCONNECTED MOTOR” by the Indian Patent Office.

  • This technology helps motors start and stop smoothly, reducing stress and maintenance costs, and preventing electrical surges and mechanical shocks.

Chairman and Managing Director, Dinesh Patidar: Expressed pride in receiving the 14th patent, emphasizing its benefits in various applications like conveyor systems, pumps, HVAC systems, and precision machining. The technology improves system efficiency, reliability, and longevity, and is compatible with generator-fed AC motors.

Credit Rating Assignment: Shakti Pumps has received updated credit ratings from India Ratings & Research Private Limited based on recent operational and financial performance. The ratings for various bank facilities are as follows:

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Hello,

In the below tracker, I have started tracking important company goals for Shakti Pumps.These goals are referred to as ‘monitorables’ in the tracker.I will update this document regularly to reflect the current status of these goals.

Here’s a snapshot of what the tracker includes:

  • Company Ticker: For identifying the company
  • Monitorable Description: Description of the goal or metric being tracked
  • Date of Announcement: When the monitorable was announced
  • Deadline: Target date for achieving the monitorable
  • Status: Current progress (e.g., Not Fulfilled, Pending)
  • Verification Link: A link to see where we got the information about the goal.

I hope this information makes it easier to observe how well companies are progressing towards their stated goals.

Screenshot of the tracker below:

Full tracker attached below:
Tracking Company Monitorables-15.xlsx (129.7 KB)

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Management had guided for 30% revenue growth. Not sure where this 3000cr number is coming from. Even in the investor ppt they claim to exhaust the current 2000cr orderbook in 15 months. By your projections they will do 2400cr+ in next 9 months.

Projections should be backed by logic and when they are against what management said, should accompany caution and disclaimers. Very irresponsible statements.

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On YoY comparison, Company posted 1 Cr profit last year and this year it posted 93 Crores Profit, still you expecting 30% growth only ? Don’t you see management is very conservative in providing guidance, as latest blockbuster results shows company already passed the 30% growth projections, plz go through govt website https://pmkusum.mnre.gov.in/#/landing and pull all data on solar pumps installations across different states and consolidate than you will get to know the huge total addressable market potential for shakti pumps.

Shakti Pumps - Potential
Comp B - 9.57L pumps remaining
Comp C - 35L pumps So total - 44.57L pumps and cost of each pump is 3L.
Total mkt size - 1.33L Cr
Shakti mkt share - 25% of 44L - 11L pumps in 5-6 yrs -
33K Cr or higher Rev potential !

https://x.com/Investindia6/status/1814862290463650039

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Feel free to make projections and speculations but state so explicitly. I see you have now edited your posts. I 100% agree that management is conservative but saying company will make 3000cr this year without backing it up with any source or saying that this is your thinking, is what i objected to.

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Source PM kusum govt website https://pmkusum.mnre.gov.in/#/landing
x.com

If you don’t agree with below data, Why don’t you pull data by yourself and show everyone that this are incorrect projections ?

Shakti Pumps Q1 revenue excellent. PAT margin improved to 16.3% vs people expecting EBITDA to be 15%. From solar pumps installation data we got 16001 pumps installed in Q1. Co installed 14785 pumps as per their own investor presentation.

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(x.com)

So no of pumps installed is more even QoQ. B2G is their highest revenue earner. Means q1 should be higher than q4. But it didn’t happen? Really (all doubters will run away now) Lets’ compare their 2 investor presentations only. Anyone can do this comparison from the investor presentations.

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(x.com)

Difference of orderbook between 30th march and 30th june. Only 4 agencies MSEDCL, HAREDA, UP AJMER VIDYUT shows that 670 crores of orders already executed in Q1. On top of this, the export for full year in FY23 was 286 crores so 70 crores per quarter. This quarter declared is just 22 crores. And add the B2B vertical which in Q4 was 130 cr. Add all of these and you would know how much revenue was generated in Q1. Exports aur B2B ko side bhi rakh do. Just the difference of their govt orderbook executed in Q1 is 670 crores.
Bottomline. Expect q2, q3, q4 to be even more blockbusters.
For full year yahi aayega, 3000 cr revenue,
600 cr pat
300 eps available at just pe of 13 vs KSB at 74.

By this comment you want to imply that the company is under-reporting the revenue?

Assuming that 40% market share will be maintained every month is faulty.

Source:- x.com

#shaktipumps delivers fantastic results. PE falls to 33 Extraordinary margin expansion Peer company like #KSB with absolutely no growth is trading at PE of 77 and #rotopumos at 52. Shakti pump on the other hand grew 9000% YoY and stands at 33 !! Some jokers online saying that it hasn’t met their expectations. You have to be a retard to think that a share trading at 33 PE and growing at 9000% isn’t meeting your standards. In an age where every other share is trading above 100 PE with no major visible growth in numbers, here you have a company showing consistent exponential numbers with such cheap valuations People are underestimating how big it is that an EPC company has beaten its Q4 PAT in Q1 which is always the leanest quarter I have reiterated this multiple times in past, #shaktipump is going to be the stock of 2024 RESULTS FULLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. Disclaimer : Invested #q1results #nse #bse #stocks #alpexsolar #solarpumps #roto


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