Wonderful set of results…
GLP revolutuion is here to stay…Since GLP pen business is high margin …it is bound to bring in lot of competition over the long term.
Short to medium term Shaily is well positioned to reap in the gains.
If shaily can make some meaningful inroads into semiconductor/electronics as well.. over next few years then this multibagger can turn into durable compounder.
I have been following earnings call for last 6-7 years…Overall management is honest and conservative. They have been looking for CEO but that plan seems to have taken backseat.
People invested in Shaily, should listen to Q2 One Source Concall. DRL stuff will happen for sure but will be delayed. Also significant opportunities r coming across the world. OneSource is fully booked and is not taking any fresh booking. Quite interesting FY26 ahead.
@nil_71 I agree, I found a youtube short update covering both the companies and this is exactly what they said. Shaily has around 60% of market share when it comes to generic Semaglutide manufacturers. OneSource too is manufacturing for a lot of GLP-1 Clients. These two in my opinion are perfect picks and shovel play. The other companies (drug manufacturers) have a lot of competition among themselves, they might make money but I am not sure. I am still researching the peptide manufacturers Like Divis and Neuland but valuations are crazy.
Thank u very helpful. But I think in march patent expired. Many Durg makers are involved in drug making. But shaily have advantage but only concern is chain. If pen demand increases then definitely chain deployed in huge amount.
Oral pill is now launched in US. Is this the reason why stock is showing weakness?
The first GLP-1 pill is available in the US. Commencing a new era for weight loss treatment, Novo Nordisk said yesterday that it had begun rolling out its Wegovy pill—the first and, currently, the only GLP-1 pill for weight loss approved for sale in the US. Its price ranges from $149 to $299 per month, depending on the dose, making it less expensive than the injectables on the market (plus, no needles). Regulators signed off on the prescription drug last month, and it is now available at CVS, Costco, and through some telehealth providers. The company said it’s making enough to avoid the shortages its injectables suffered. Novo’s biggest competitor in the weight loss space, Eli Lilly, is working to bring out its own GLP-1 pill soon.
The primary driver of the “High-quality growth” mentioned is Shaily’s entry into the healthcare vertical, specifically for injector pens used for GLP-1 drugs (like generic versions of Ozempic/Semaglutide).
The Opportunity: The patent for Semaglutide is set to expire in 2026 in markets like India, Canada, and Brazil. Shaily has already partnered with 23-24 global pharma companies to be their device supplier.
Growth Projections: The report notes that healthcare revenue is expected to grow at a staggering 96% CAGR between FY25 and FY28.
Market Share: Shaily is positioned to capture 50-60% market share of the generic GLP-1 device market in these targeted geographies.
2. Business Segments & Optionality
Healthcare (The Star): Expected to rise from 21% of total revenue to over 55% by FY28. This segment has higher margins and higher entry barriers (patented technology).
Consumer & Industrials: This is the “steady” part of the business, supplying components to global giants like IKEA, P&G, and GE Appliances. It is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR.
The “Optionality”: The report highlights potential new growth from the consumer electronics and semiconductor space, which isn’t fully baked into the current price yet.
3. The “Limited Valuation Cushion” (The Warning)
This is the part of the title that relates to your previous questions about P/E multiples.
Sky-High Multiples: Shaily is currently trading at a P/E of ~68x to 70x.
Priced to Perfection: The market has already factored in the 75% EPS CAGR projected for the next three years. If there is any delay in generic drug launches or a shift in the market, the stock has no “cushion” to fall back on.
Multiple Compression Risk: Even if the company performs well, if the growth slows down to “normal” levels (say 20-25%), the P/E multiple could contract from 70x to 30x, which would lead to a significant drop in stock price even if earnings are growing.
4. Key Risks Highlighted
The “Oral Pill” Threat: Novo Nordisk recently launched an oral weight-loss pill (Wegovy pill) in the US. If patients prefer pills over needles, the demand for Shaily’s injector pens could be lower than estimated.
Regulatory Hurdles: Any delay in FDA or local regulatory approvals for the generic drug manufacturers (Shaily’s clients) would push back the revenue timeline.
Promoter Selling: The report likely notes recent block deals where promoters or early investors (like Ashish Kacholia) may have trimmed stakes to take profits at these high valuations.
Been studying the impact of Oral GLP1 on injectibles. It seems to boil down to
Convenience
Price
Efficacy
And the relative importance of these might differ for different type of user.
Is it possible that injectibles remain much cheaper than Branded (patent protected pills) in markets like India, Brazil, China and most other large ermerging markets for a long time?
Current pricing suggest a big gap in favour of injectables:
