Shah portfolio check

Hi Friends,

I have been in markets since 2008 fall when I was 18

I started similar to many other folks in the market. I thought I knew everything about the markets. I use to buy and sell watching some analyst on cnbc and zee business. The only thin I knew about a stock was price and p/e.

Until I came to USA in 2010 and when I first heard about buffet and read his annual shareholder report, I relialized how naive I was.

As a gujarati Bania and being from a business family (though my father never told me that I was buying all junk stocks in 2008-09), I quickly learnt how the markets work and why some business (Dhandho) are valued higher than the other.

I had my fair share of failures like Deccan chronicle (lost 95%), geodesic, 3i infotech, gvk power, reliance power and some more.

I had a few success too. Britannia, NBCC, Aurobindo and my current portfolio.

I am sharing my current portfolio and wish to hear your comments. I do run concentrated portfolio.

Can fin homes - 33%
J&k bank -11%
Kajaria ceramics - 11%
Granules India -9%
Bajaj Corp -8%
Eros international- 8%
India cements -7%
PTL enterprises-7%
Wonderla holidays -6%

Keeping an eye on Raymond’s, aarti drugs, Astra microwave , century plyboard, kse.

Most of your picks look good and you have the age factor at your advantage :smile:
I have not been tracking J&K Bank recently. But you may want to keep a check on the NPAs and stressed assets.
EROS - I am not sure what is happening there. You should take an informed decision.

Amongst your watch-list Astra Microwave and Raymond’s could be the ones to watch out for.

Samir Ji,

Jk bank NPA is high and will remain high till the bank sells bad assest to ARC and write off some. They have taken a stance not to grow the loan book too much. I think its a good decesion. Management has recognized the problems and is willing to clean up the mess first and then only go for real growth.

EROS - Buffet always says be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. Underlying business is not in any danger and atleast Box Office #s are real. Maybe the books might be a bit forged.

What is your estimate of Raymonds intrinsic value ?
I am ready to buy it big if the M Cap comes close to 1800-2000 CR

Sorry for the delayed response.

Based on my assumption of 12-14% growth over the next 10 years the value may lie somewhere between 300 ~ 325. But I may completely off on my calculations since I haven’t tracked this in depth.

Good luck on your future investments.

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EROS has come with accounting fraud claimed by US analysts - so i will keep miles away from such stock