Started my mini fund thanks to the corpus contribution from my IIMA batchmates. To start with I would like ideate with the community to build my own customised list in screener to filter out stock ideas .
A brief background of mine - CA (work ex with SEBI, Aavas Financiers Ltd and Shopkirana( a portfolio start up of Infoedge, Sixth Sense Ventures and OIJIF) . Currently post my MBA I have joined a management consulting firm Arthur D. Little
Thanks in Advance to the community for all the inputs
This is the broad investment framework I would like to stick to
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While management quality is more or less easy to rank, how would you address sector performance.
It’s quite difficult to predict more than once which sector would outperform.
We are in the midst of an extremely bullish market with some pullbacks here and there like the one we are currently witnessing. Eventually the bull markets will end. Do you have any models that give you a hint when markets might become too expensive.
Have you done any backtests or forward tests and have they covered these scenarios?
On a side note, I am not sure if you have sebi registration. If not, managing other peoples money might get you into hot waters.
Regarding compliances we have a CA firm who exactly know at what stage what compliance will kick in . They are helping us . So that is not a worry . As regarding some models, backtesting and forward tests and all , we dont believe in all those . We are old school guys reading annual reports, concalls , going on ground to talk to some players in that sector , looking at traditional financial and valuation metrics
We will do pure fundamental based investing because we only know that
Understood
A stock market can get overheated at which point unless you’re a very large fish like Mr Buffet, I think one would step aside
Another way of putting it is not finding enough value to warrant a purchase at current price.
My question was around that and models and backtests around macro economics, more out of personal interest, if you’ve found anything meaningful. I came across some models based on fundamental data like o/n RRP and it’s role on predicting interest rate movements etc, so was looking at that as a whole.
Probably my mistake in calling it backtests as it’s not really a backtest but for want of better and succinct word, I probably used that term and misled.
I gather you are probably looking at buy and hold for ever but it someone doesn’t align with your 4-quadrant analysis chart as a company in tailwind sector will eventually get into headwind sector, vice versa
