Datacenter
I think I have given enough coverage on ARM inroads. But do note that if anyone read the beginning posts - I have tried to focus on datacenter - which is the cash cow for
current leaders - Intel/NVDA. That is the area where everyone is trying to get a hold on. ATleast any serious CPU/GPU company end goal is datacenter. I should have named this thread with ‘datacenter’.
Let me clarify:
Short term incursion possiblity - AMD. Hence I focus a lot in this
Long term - ARM is a serious threat. Hence I have devoted some time/space for it. But I have informed about what to expect and at what stage ARM is. Not too much day today noise comes in this space. Also note that NVDA ARM acquisition is in process and ARM CEO has come out with some sorry picture if acquisition does not happen.
I am not talking laptops/desktops etc.
Just that my recent posts have been about INTEL/AMD since current fight is among these two in CPU space. Also, the NVDA acquisition story being still in process has prevented me from writing much about arm. Ampere has come up with great ARM server platforms and ARM based supercomputer fugaku is 3rd time top (Revised every 6 months). Apple could well be planning on deploying their ARM ISA CPU in their cloud infra.
Now, with the clarification for ‘lack of focus on ARM’ out of the way let me come to the most important part I was expecting from readers in the know how of this industry. Low NVDA discussion. Not sure why someone did not complain about this 
Some info to munch on
- NVDA profit last year was double ARM’s revenue - ARM financials - https://group.softbank/en/system/files/financial-report_q4fy2020_01_en.pdf?file=pdf/ir/financials/financial_reports/financial-report_q4fy2020_01_en.pdf - page 38.
- ARM is facing/will face competition from RISC-V. Things get murky here and it becomes opinionated since things have only started to play out now.
- Also, do read the following interview of ARM CEO
The combination of Arm and NVIDIA is a better outcome than an IPO. The level of investment that will be needed to lead in AI will be unprecedented. We’ve been down this road before when we predicted a major market shift in 2016. We knew that we needed to invest heavily in our products, talent, and technology to take advantage of the opportunities ahead. The initial investments came when SoftBank acquired Arm; it enabled us to build new technologies that expanded our reach into data centers, the automotive and networking industries, all while retaining our leadership in mobile.
Now is the time for us to take our scale to the next level to address the technology challenges ahead. We contemplated an IPO but determined that the pressure to deliver short-term revenue growth and profitability would suffocate our ability to invest, expand, move fast and innovate. Combining with NVIDIA will give us the scale, resources and agility needed to maximize the opportunities ahead. This deal is the best opportunity for Arm and our customers and will enable the UK to be a meaningful industry player in the age of AI.
- They have put in a lot of money in ‘future’ plans. Yet to fully monetize?
- Softbank will squeeze ARM if it goes to IPO
- CEO hinting AI race needs huge investments and not easy with IPO. He is not even talking about CPU licensing/royalty in datacenter in the future. Read on to understand more.
When people talk about arm, they talk about how ubiquitous its presence is going to be. But they do not understand that ARM sells CPU IP. It does sell some other IP - GPU/interconnect. But unlike nvda/intel, it does not yet have a full platform capability that is widely used. There are some solutions like Neoverse, but nothing compared to two behemoths.
Now add this up with what ARM CEO is saying - I suspect/feel royalty is drying up or something like that - I am not sure.
Finally - My picture of data center current and future is CPU shifting data in and out. GPU doing to hard work. Hence ARM does not occupy a lot of my mindspace. Offcourse, after NVDA aquires ARM, it becomes a different ballgame as it becomes part of a power AI/compute platform. Do read CEO interviews to understand the TAM capability here.
I hope I have given a perspective with major players covered. And no area missed (offcourse only datacenter)