Start of better utilisation of assets and capex done in few past quarters. Enormous growth is to be seen. EV space progressing well. DC-DC charger, motor controller and charger.
Q3 – largest customers – TVS motors, 30% of revenue, Hero -19%, JCB – 9%, Honda-3% and so on.
Capacity utilisation – new projects of casting and sheet metal – mid level (50-60% and likely to be fully utilised by end of FY25). Proprietary items (smart locks, DC-DC converter, MCU, EV Charger) need incremental capex but small.
Romania is still at 10-20% capacity. Bosch, ERW? customers are planning to shift from China to this plant. Likely to reach good capacity utilisation by FY25/26.
EV products – one product under trial, hope to launch by 1QFY25. Engaged with 2 customers.
Q4 outlook – seems extremely strong.
Election impact – commercial vehicles may see pull back. Others will not see pull back.
Why set up capacity –at the call of customer. Only when customer says then only capacity is set up. Smart locks, EV: capacities are set up at the behest of the customer.
Others constitute: tools and dies, after market, plastics business, clutch and break panels.
What are the peak revenue for sheet metal – (my calculation: sheet metal in Q3 FY24 was ~105 crores, so annual run rate at 60% capacity is 400+ crores. Hence this may go to 600+ crores in FY25).
Most bullish on proprietary products (smart lock): mechanical lock cost was – 200-300rs, smart lock shall cost 10x. Existing business will catapult. Revenue potential (from smart locks) is 10x. 10-20m vehicles are sold domestically. (my calculation: addressable domestic market for 15m vehicles is in 3000 crores to 4000 crores range). In addition, global market is also a huge potential. My own hunch is smart lock segment itself can be equal to it its overall revenue as of today in 3 to 5 years.
Smart locks? for Honda, Suzuki, and Hyundai (4-wheeler) will be launched in FY25.
Debt is at 554 crores. 100 crore debt re-payment likely next year.
Margins are likely to be in 10-11% range in FY25. Potential is 12 to 13% in long-term.
EV products capex – around on 10 crores in FY24, FY25 20-30 crores. Asset turn and margin: very asset light: MCU – output per piece supply is 1000s of rupees. Sub parts done already so capex is not required much.
Bought a company in 2006 – oldest die casting facility. Patent came along the way. Tools for seat belt chair (not sure here) (60% market share) are made by us. Customers are extremely happy due to technology.
Every casting for TVS is from us.
Power and fuel 100 crore cost: solar power capacity: contract with solar power company - zero capex investment, 2.5 to 3 rs per unit savings expected.
Disclosure: own it and added more today.
Disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.
Hi sir. I think wrt to debt the company said something different. Net Total Debt at 539cr. Will pay Rs 40cr this year as part of term loan instalment. Next year’s conservative payback target is Rs. 100cr (57-58 Cr regular instalment + pay extra).
Please note that my numbers/projections incorporate my assumption of growth and management guidance of margin improvement so this may differ from actual outcome on positive or negative side. Also note my disclaimer below:
Disclosure: own it and added more in last 30 days.
Disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.
Hi @joinjp2003, what are your thoughts on the cyclicality of this business and customer concentration risk? Also the Management expected higher growth but it wasn’t achieved (I think it 20% actual vs 25-30% which they said).
I have been following this company and built some position recently. Read your comments here and it re-enforced my confidence
I happened to have worked with the Company on an acquisition they eventually didn’t go through with. But the Management is quite aggressive in their projections and Mr. Dawar is a nice man to talk to!
I am not aware of the guidance given by the company.
On cyclicality: I think underlying industry is cyclical. However, company has not shrunk substantially on margins or revenues in the last 7 years (barring covid years). Mainly driven by introduction of new products (metal sheet, die casting), higher content value per vehicle (manual locks to smart locks) and ram-up of subsidiary operations (capex fruition).
2 Wheeler sales has been largely flat over the past 3 to 5 years. However, company has grown its sales in 20-25% range for the past two full fiscals and current 9M.
Disclosure: own it and added more in last 30 days.
Disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.
The company is well-poised for growth and there are multiple variables which are likely to support:
Increase in capacity utilization from current lows of 55-60%. With no major capex planned, expect operating leverage to play out.
Scope of margin expansion from current 9-10% to 12-13% in the short to medium term
Deleveraging (to repay debt of 140 crores in next 15 months). Could be even higher if company generates better CFO
Integrating manufacturing facilities for better operating efficiency
Topline is expected to grow at 20-25% and with all the variables playing out, the bottomline could easily grow by 30%+
Likely to generate CFO of 350+ cr in FY24 which values the company at 8x of CFO (very reasonably priced)
Obviously, there are risks in terms of higher customer concentration and external vulnerability to slowdown in 2-wheeler market. But on an overall basis, the risk-reward ratio is quite favourable at the moment. Any thoughts?
I think that’s a fair point.
If we look at Motilal Oswal’s wealth creation study 2023, the biggest wealth creators were the ones which improved their return on capital (ROCE/ROE) over a period of time. For Sandhar, with reduction in debt, no further capex requirement and increasing profitability, it could be one of those turnaround stories where Returns can improve significantly.
