Growth AUM has to grow 3x+ to meet 1 lk cr target in 2 years. It seems super ambitious. What do you all think? I know they want to ramp up colending and all but is this achievable without deteriorating quality?
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Very insightful info from Cohesion MK(fund managed by madhu kela sir) quarterly investment report
Disc - Invested
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This is really very ambitious. I’m also skeptical. Management said this(Q4FY25 Concall) in this context -" on a goal of reaching a
Fiscal ‘27 growth AUM of Rs. 1 lakh crore, we are at Rs. 37,452 crores, still a long way to go.
But quite hopeful that as we scale up disbursals at both Sammaan Capital and Sammaan Finserve
and the AIF platform starts firing, we should be in a position to hit this number"
“The annual disbursals are trending along well. With nominal growth 20%-30% every year, we
should be able to achieve our target out there.”
I run this simple calculation
- Final Value = ₹100,000
- Initial Value = ₹37,000
- n = 2 years
CAGR=≈0.6434=64.34%
Need a CAGR of approximately 64.34% per year to grow ₹37,000 to ₹1,00,000 in 2 years.
What am I missing here?
Disc. Invested & planning to increase allocation.
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With the management detailing out the various income streams in the latest quarterly earnings update, here is a more detailed modelling exercise (than the one I shared many months ago) on the financial projections for FY2026 and FY2027. Wherever management has given a range for income streams, I have tried to take the lower end of the same. Similarly, fee income pertaining to new disbursals have been applied to net disbursals instead of gross disbursals to remain conservative.
No impact of write-backs from written off pool of loans has been considered.
Here is the outcome: -
The net profits for FY2026 and FY2027 are projected to be Rs 3700 Cr and Rs 4300 Cr respectively. Net Worth by FY2027 is projected to touch Rs 30,000 Cr. The excel file is attached herewith.
Sammaan Capital Projections.xlsx (12.6 KB)
Counter arguments and critique invited.
Disclosure: Invested with a substantial allocation. Views are likely to be biased
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No finance cost on ~38k cr borrowings?
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My bad! I had realized it just as you mentioned it. Have incorporated cost of funds @ 8.5% for FY2026 and 8.0% for FY2027. The operating cost will also reduce since it is a % of Net Interest Income. Here is the revised working.
Now the numbers are much more believable. Net profit touching Rs 2400 Cr and Net Worth touching Rs 26,000 Cr by end of FY2027. Excel is attached herewith
Sammaan Capital Projections.xlsx (12.7 KB)
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Repo & CRR Cut – lumpsum Impact on Sammaan Capital
- Borrowing base: ₹52,297 Cr
- Current cost of funds: ~7.5% (typical NBFC spread over MCLR)
➤ Repo Rate Cut:
- 50 bps cut → assuming 60% transmission = 30 bps benefit
- Effective rate drops to ~7.2%
- Savings: ₹156.9 Cr annually (0.3% × ₹52,297 Cr)
➤ CRR Easing:
- Banks’ cost drops 10–20 bps → NBFC benefit ~10 bps
- Combined drop = 40 bps → borrowing rate ~7.1%
- Total savings: ₹209.2 Cr annually
➤ Pass-through to borrowers (20 bps):
- ₹104.6 Cr passed on (0.2% × ₹52,297 Cr)
- Net benefit retained: ~₹130 Cr
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They will do a 25-30% CAGR and get growth AUM around 55-60k mark by 2027
100000cr is an exaggerated target, but even at ~60k cr and re-rating from current 0.5x PBV, cleaned up books, the stock will see a big jump!
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Forgive my naivete but if it was this straightforward why wasn’t it done for all these years ? This Co has existed in a previous avatar for almost 2 decades. Granted that this is a change of strategy & direction post the rebranding (of sorts), but I see that the senior mgmt. team is largely unchanged. Growth targets with large AUMs and cleaned up books on a long term, sustained basis are easier on slide decks than reality.
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June 10, 2025 Update
Unsecured creditors have officially approved the Scheme of Arrangement as directed by the NCLT. This is a key structural step for Sammaan as it moves forward with the consolidation of six legacy group entities into the main company.
This merger simplifies the group structure, cuts administrative overhead, and fully distances the brand from the Indiabulls legacy. It also improves transparency, governance, and operating efficiency. Over time, this should reflect positively in cost ratios and ROE.
No dilution, no restructuring — just cleanup. Now awaiting final NCLT clearance. Good step forward.
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