I’ve been part of this forum for a while and have learned a lot from the discussions and shared insights here.
Wanted to share my current portfolio along with my notes, mainly as a way of giving back and inviting discussion.
Happy to hear different views or pushback.
Invested
1. Waaree Energies Ltd
- PAT scaled from ~₹80cr in FY22 to ~₹1900cr by 2025; execution track record over >10 years
- India’s largest solar PV player; scale + first-mover advantage across modules and cells
- Net cash balance ~₹7,000cr+; lean working capital, no leverage during scale-up phase
- “Winner takes most” industry structure: scale + integration likely to force consolidation; Waaree among clear long-term winners
- Optionality from new verticals (BESS, inverters, transformers, electrolyzers); incremental ₹1,500cr+ EBITDA potential
- FY26e EBITDA guidance ₹5,500–6,000cr; core solar EBITDA potential ₹8,000–9,000cr by FY27
- Policy tailwinds (ALMM and potential extension of similar frameworks to cells/wafer) structurally favour integrated domestic manufacturers and could accelerate consolidation.
- Massive capacity ramp-up underway: modules ~27GW, cells ~15GW, wafer-ingot ~10GW by FY27
- Order book ~₹4.4–4.7 lakh cr (~20–24GW) gives earnings visibility till FY28; 60%+ overseas mix
- Backward integration via Oman polysilicon investment reduces China risk, improves traceability for US/EU, secures supply
- EBITDA/PAT CAGR ~40%+ over FY25–28 driven by volume growth, margin stability (22–24%), operating leverage
holding this from pre-ipo
2. Axiscades Technologies Ltd
- aims to reach $1 bn in revenue over the next five years.
- strong order pipeline in aerospace and defence sectors.
- Shifting from pure ER&D services to product + IP-led defence and aerospace business, which should improve margins and scalability over time
- New management team is very strong, with deep global aerospace and ER&D experience (ex-Airbus, Capgemini, Quest Global)
- Deep engagement with DRDO, HAL, BEL and involvement in marquee programs like LCA Tejas, Project Kusha and SU-30
- Big beneficiary of Atmanirbhar Bharat, defence indigenisation and offset opportunities.
- The company aims to scale the ESAI vertical to $30 mn.
- Involved in counter-drone systems and has supplied 100 units to the Ministry of Defence.
- Its MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) capabilities, including setting up new facilities near Bangalore airport. They aim to make MRO a 1000Mn business in the next two years.
- Positioned as a key offset partner for European OEMs like MBDA and Thales, driving high-margin (24–25%) defence work
- Contract mix is improving with more fixed-price projects and offshore delivery, which should steadily lift margins and reduce earnings volatility.
- ESAI emerging as third pillar; deepening work with semiconductor OEMs and hyperscalers, validation + testing turning into IP-led monetisation over time
- Defence is the growth engine: wins in radars, EW, missiles, counter-drone; multi-year MoD visibility, electronics + integration orders active
- Aerospace provides stable annuity base via OEM engineering and tooling; steady, margin-accretive revenues
- Large infra build underway; FY26–27 growth not capex-dependent, FY28+ scale, margin and ROCE kicker as facilities ramp
- Balance sheet cleaned up after QIP and debt reduction, giving headroom to invest in defence infrastructure and long-term growth
- Strong order pipeline across all three verticals supports aggressive roadmap; management guiding ~65–70% CAGR to FY30 with visibility till FY28
- Defence production revenues expected to ramp meaningfully from FY26 as programs move from development to production
- Guided 50–55% EBITDA growth with ~300 bps margin improvement, driven by operating leverage and mix shift
- Key triggers: defence production scale-up, ESAI monetisation, higher product mix, operating leverage from new facilities
3. Aurion pro
- Turnaround story led by Ashish Rai (ex-FIS), successfully pivoted from services to high-margin IP product company; recurring revenue is sticky.
- ₹15,000+ cr order book, ~80% executable in 5–6 quarters → clear revenue visibility
- Mumbai Metro + data center wins give multi-year revenue visibility
- Data Center & AI (Arya AI) segments acting as new hyper-growth engines
- High receivables history & key man risk (CEO Ashish Rai is central to the turnaround story)
- Revenue CAGR ~25% over FY26–28 with steady ~20% EBITDA margins
4. Ather Energy
- Technocrat promoters (IIT-M alumni) with strong engineering DNA and product-first culture
- Quality leader in consolidating EV 2W space (solid No. 3 player gaining share from incumbent Ola)
- ‘Rizta’ helping them tap mass market + ‘EL platform’ to drive operating leverage on 4.2L capacity
- Strong moat via proprietary tech (AtherStack) & charging infra (Ather Grid) creating high customer stickiness
- New Sambhajinagar plant more vertically integrated, lowers BOM and service cost
- Cost structure improves via LFP batteries, simpler EL architecture, higher localization
- Path to EBITDA breakeven visible by FY28-29
5. Yatharth Hospital
- Promoter-led regional hospital chain with strong execution track record in Delhi NCR
- acquire underperforming assets → add specialties, doctors, robotics → ramp occupancy + ARPOB
- Highest bed expansion among peers: ~55% capacity addition by FY27 (>3000 beds)
- Earnings CAGR ~30%+ over FY25–27 driven by beds + ARPOB + operating leverage
- Deliberate shift toward Oncology and Organ Transplants to boost ARPOB and reduce government scheme reliance from 40% to 25%.
- ARPOB ~₹30–32k with visible runway vs large peers; mgmt guides 8–10% steady growth
- Valuations still below large hospital chains despite similar growth trajectory
6. Time Technoplast
- Global leader in industrial packaging. #1 in large plastic drums, #3 globally in IBCs, #2 worldwide in Type-IV composite LPG/CNG cylinders. Sticky Fortune-500 client base
- Clear pivot from commodity plastics to Value-Added Products. VAP now ~27–30% of revenue, targets ~35% in 2–3 years, structurally higher margins at 18%+
- Strong growth visibility: FY25–28E revenue CAGR ~15%, PAT CAGR ~23% driven by VAP scale-up, overseas growth, operating leverage
- Composite CNG cascade capacity doubling to ~1,080 units by 4QFY26. Revenue potential ~₹8,000 cr pipeline over time
- overseas at ~34–35% of revenue with local sourcing and manufacturing; margins similar to India at 13–14%
- Post-2022 leadership change (Bharat Vageria) has delivered on promises: reducing debt, improving working capital, and focusing on ROCE (targeting 20%+).
- QIP of ₹8–10 bn funds growth capex + debt reduction. Target net-debt-free by FY27. Interest cost savings kick in from FY27
7. Samhi Hotels
- Owns ~4,800+ keys across 30+ hotels, ~85–90% exposure to Tier-1 commercial cities where demand stays structural and supply remains tight
- Buys stressed / dislocated hotels below replacement cost, renovates + rebrands under Marriott / Hyatt / IHG, drives sharp uplift in ARR, occupancy, RevPAR
- Trades ~8–12x EV/EBITDA (FY26–28E) vs peers despite faster PAT growth
- GIC investment + asset sales driving net debt/EBITDA below 3x, targeted ~1–2x by FY28; falling interest costs amplify equity upside
- Upscale & above portfolio to rise from ~22% to ~40%+ of keys, higher ARR and stronger F&B contribution, EBITDA margin trending toward ~40%+
- High flow-through of revenue to EBITDA (~40% incremental margins) due to the asset-heavy model.
- Market pricing Samhi at a discount due to perception of high debt and lack of leisure portfolio.
- ~85% portfolio in top 6 cities (Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, NCR, Chennai, Ahmedabad); ~90% revenue from Tier-1 markets with structurally higher occupancy and ARR
- ~1,500 keys under development / rebranding; Navi Mumbai 700-key dual-branded hotel a multi-year EBITDA driver; portfolio to cross ~6,300 keys in 5–6 years
- Revenue CAGR ~13–14%, EBITDA CAGR ~17–19%, PAT CAGR ~50%+ over FY25–28 as occupancy, ARR, and leverage improve together
- Active pipeline adding ~600-700 keys via renovations and new developments (e.g., Navi Mumbai, Kolkata).
8. Sai life science
- India CRDMO emerging as 3rd global pole; China+1, Biosecure Act, tariff risks driving outsourcing to India
- Sai best positioned among peers: integrated CRDMO model + strong CRO base + global R&D footprint
- 7+ potential blockbuster molecules in commercial portfolio; rising revenue per molecule over time
- Broad capabilities across complex small molecules, peptides, HPAPIs, oligos. Few Indian peers at this depth
- CDMO revenues expected to grow ~20%+ over next 3 years, led by commercial portfolio
- Ready capacity + global R&D presence allows faster scale-up when molecules succeed
- Client concentration low, revenue per client still under-monetised. Long runway for wallet share expansion
- Margins expected to expand from ~24% to ~28% by FY28 despite conservative assumptions
- Sector tailwinds strong: Indian CRDMO industry entering multi-year growth cycle (~17% revenue CAGR FY25–28)
- 160 CDMO projects in pipeline; unique distinction of taking 5 drugs from discovery to commercial (highest among peers).
- Sole supplier for AbbVie’s Atogepant/Ubrogepant (Migraine); crazy scale-up from $4.2m to $15.8m with ~50-60% value capture.
- Global footprint with R&D presence in innovation hubs; sticky innovator relationships reduce client concentration risk
- Margins hitting 29% as mix shifts to commercial
- Already 7% of revenue coming from high-value Peptides, ADCs & Oligonucleotides (low-risk discovery phase entry).
9. NSE
- Dominant stock exchange in India with over:
- 90% share in equity cash trading.
- 80% share in equity derivatives trading.
- $50B estimated market cap; trailing P/E ~30-35x.
- Operating margins >60%, virtually no debt.
- High operating leverage and digital infrastructure enable strong profitability.
- Comparable to a toll bridge: low incremental costs, scalable revenue.
- Dividend yield of ~5% based on current secondary market price.
- Runs at ~8% of its tech capacity, indicating significant future scale potential.
- India’s capital markets are booming:
- Retail brokerage accounts grew from 25M (2015) to 175M+ (2025).
- GDP has surpassed the UK’s, now the **5th largest globally.
- Growth drivers:
- Increasing penetration: active population only 2.9% of the total population.
- Developed economies are above 10% in equity markets
- NSE is central to primary and secondary capital market formation:
- 268 IPOs in 2024 raised $19.5B (vs. NASDAQ’s $22.5B).
- India is projected to be the fastest growing economy and fastest gap per capita growth
- Healthy market cap to gdp ratio with India at 123% vs USA at 175%
- BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)** is the only competitor, far smaller and less efficient.
- BSE trades at ~68x earnings, despite weaker fundamentals.
- From 2014, NSE has continuously taken over market share from use
- Winners takes it all in the few years possibility
- Business Model Strength
- NSE is an infrastructure-layer business with:
- Minimal working capital needs.
- Low maintenance capex.
- Strong pricing power and essential utility status.
- NSE is an infrastructure-layer business with:
bought from the private market
Mutual Funds I’ve invested in
- UTI Nifty 50
- Motilal Multi cap
- Motilal Gold and Silver FOF
Stocks I’m tracking
1. Shaily Engineering plastic
- Only Indian company manufacturing complex drug-delivery devices for global pharma; healthcare now the growth driver vs legacy consumer/industrial plastics
- Eight patented injector platforms focused on GLP-1 blockbusters; working with multiple generic and innovator pharma players. End-market opportunity ~$100bn+ by FY30
- Healthcare revenue mix rises from ~19% to ~35–40%+, with IP-led pens moving from 30% to ~80% of healthcare sales. EBITDA margins already expanded to ~30%+ in recent quarters
- Pen capacity ~40mn units, doubling to ~80mn by FY26–27; current utilisation ~45–50%. Volume ramp drives operating leverage without proportional capex
- FY24–28E revenue CAGR ~23%, EBITDA CAGR ~33%, PAT CAGR ~40%+. ROCE expands from ~12% to ~25%+ as healthcare scales
- Long-standing relationships with IKEA, HUL, P&G, GE, Honeywell ensure steady cash flows while healthcare scales; China+1 benefits visible in non-healthcare verticals
indirectly hold via motilal multi cap; it’s their top holding (~20%)
2. Brigade Enterprises
- Operates in India’s strongest market; #2 player in Bengaluru, expanding fast in Chennai and Hyderabad. As the housing cycle enters a mid-cycle phase, market share is shifting to large, well-capitalised players like Brigade
- Presales CAGR ~30% over FY21–25; guided ~14–19% CAGR over FY25–28 on a high base. ~11–15 msf launch pipeline supports growth even as industry volumes remain range-bound
- Low inventory (13–15 months), price growth ~12% YoY, steady demand from GCCs and tech employment.
- Collections expected to grow ~32% CAGR over FY25–28 to ~₹123bn, translating into cumulative operating cash flows of ~₹150bn. This underwrites growth without balance-sheet stress
- ~3.3 msf leased office portfolio with ~92% occupancy. Rental income CAGR ~7% over FY25–28; annuity assets cushion residential cyclicality and improve ROCE quality
- Hospitality portfolio to scale to ~3,300 keys by FY30. Hospitality turns EBITDA positive and adds long-term optionality once utilisation normalises
- Net debt/equity down to ~0.2x post QIP; expected net cash of ~₹14bn by FY28 provides flexibility for land buys and annuity capex
- Trades ~11–16x FY28E EPS and ~6–7x FY28E EV/EBITDA. Multiple expands as collections, rentals and balance-sheet strength become more visible
3. Neuland
- Transition from commodity APIs to high-margin Contract Manufacturing Solutions; CMS share rises to ~64% of revenue by FY28
- Unit III capacity expanded to ~536 KL; utilisation still <40%. Headroom supports 3–4 years of growth without major capex
- Bempedoic acid capacity scaled from 50T to 150T; peak revenue potential ~$75mn. Xanomeline is an exclusive-supply molecule with demand lift from innovator launch traction
- EBITDA margin expands from ~22% to ~32%+ as CMS mix improves; Q2FY26 EBITDA margin hit ~30%+, well ahead of history
- FY25–28E revenue CAGR ~21%, EBITDA CAGR ~37%, PAT CAGR ~45%. Asset turnover improves to ~2.5–3x as Unit III ramps
- ₹2.5bn peptide facility under construction; moves Neuland up the complexity curve with clinical-to-commercial peptide CDMO capability
- Major beneficiary of the US Biosecure Act (restricting Chinese CDMOs), driving innovator interest in Neuland as a compliant partner.
- 15+ years of peptide experience with a new 6.37KL peptide facility coming online (FY27) to capture the GLP-1 (weight loss/diabetes) boom
- Trading ~39x FY27E EPS, reasonable for a high-growth CDMO with multi-year revenue visibility, margin expansion and global demand tailwinds
4. Narayana Hrudyalaya
- Led by Dr. Devi Shetty, strong execution track record in delivering high-quality tertiary care at affordable price points, without sacrificing margins
- ~5,500+ operational beds today with only ~50–60% occupancy. Planned addition of ~1,900 beds by FY28 and ~1.3x capacity by FY30 offers strong topline upside without aggressive pricing
- The Cayman Islands facility is a strategic asset generating ~40-50% of EBITDA in tax-free USD. This funds India expansion without equity dilution.
- Cardiac, oncology, renal, neuro and ortho contribute ~65–70% of revenue. Complex procedures drive stable ARPOB growth (13–14% YoY) even in soft occupancy quarters
- Launch of “Aditi” insurance creates a self-reinforcing ecosystem (HMO model), cutting middleman costs and ensuring hospital capacity utilization.
- FY22–25 revenue / EBITDA / PAT CAGR of ~14% / 25% / 32%. Consolidated EBITDA expected to grow ~20%+ driven by Cayman + India scale-up
- ₹30bn capex over 3–4 years funded largely via ~₹10bn annual operating cash flows + manageable debt. Net D/E ~0.5x leaves balance sheet flexible
- NH One Health clinics (~50k subscribers) act as feeders to hospitals. Insurance products (Aditi, Arya) target the “missing middle” with disruptive pricing. Near-term losses, but strong long-term stickiness optionality
- Receivable days ~30 vs industry ~60 due to high cash-pay mix (~45%). ROE ~22% and ROCE ~16% with scope to expand as new beds mature
- Industry-leading ROCE (~25-30%) achieved by avoiding expensive real estate and prioritizing asset turnover.
- Trading at a discount (EV/EBITDA ~19-20x) relative to peers (35-50x), offering a margin of safety.
5. Acutaas chemicals
- Nubeqa is the game changer: Massive multi-year CDMO contract with Fermion for Nubeqa (prostate cancer drug) ramps up now; expected to drive CDMO revenue from ₹80cr to ₹1,000cr by FY28.
- First non-Chinese global supplier for critical electrolyte additives (VC/FEC) used in Li-ion batteries; 2,000 MTPA capacity coming online H2FY26 with firm orders already in place
- EBITDA margins expanded to 31% in Q2FY26 as high-margin CDMO business scales; management guides for 25% revenue growth in FY26 with improving margins
- Global leadership (50-90% share) in key chronic therapy APIs (Trazodone, Apixaban) provides a stable cash cow to fund high-growth capex
- Smart JV in South Korea (75% stake) to bypass initial hiccups and directly tap into high-value semiconductor chemicals market by late 2026
6. Supriya life science
- 12-15 products are backward integrated to KSM (Key Starting Material) stage, protecting margins (consistently 28-30%+) and reducing raw material volatility.
- Successfully pivoting from China-dependency to regulated markets (Europe/LATAM/North America now ~50%+ of revenue); recently cleared Brazil ANVISA and USFDA audits.
- Capacity doubling (to ~1020 KL) via new Lote Parshuram block and Ambernath facility; aiming for ₹1000cr revenue by FY27 (conservative guidance).
- 10-year exclusive contract with DSM Firmenich (Vitamins) and entry into high-value Contrast Media and Anti-anxiety segments providing future upside.
- Fully funded CAPEX (~₹350cr planned) via internal accruals with a debt-free balance sheet, ensuring high ROCE/ROE remains intact.
7. CCL products
- Global leader in instant coffee processing with ~7–8% share of global export market share
- First mover in India in freeze-dried coffee, now expanding premium capacity where margins are higher
- Pure B2B “coffee foundry” model with cost-plus contracts
- Operates in the hardest part of the value chain (bean-to-soluble); scale + process know-how not replicable with capex alone
- Cost-plus B2B contracts pass through coffee price volatility; margins structurally stable despite commodity swings
- Domestic branded business (Continental Coffee) crosses ₹200+ cr, growing 40–50% YoY; optionality kicker with higher margin potential
- Dual capability across spray-dried (scale) and freeze-dried (premium); aggressive freeze-dried expansion lifts mix and EBITDA/kg
- India + Vietnam manufacturing footprint → scale, redundancy, tax efficiency, proximity to raw material
- Deep moat from 30+ years of process know-how, 900+ custom blends, and customer stickiness across 100+ countries
- Capacity expanded ~80% over last cycle; utilisation ramp ahead drives operating leverage and ROCE expansion
- Massive capacity expansion completed (70k+ TPA), operating leverage kicks in FY26–27
- Clean governance: no promoter pledging, no equity dilution through capex cycle, disciplined capital allocation
- Classic supply-side dominance play: few global competitors, sticky customers, stable EBITDA/kg across cycles
8. 3B Blackbio
- First Indian company to get USFDA EUA for RT-PCR; proves R&D is world-class.
- Scaled production 20x during the pandemic; R&D team is stable and highly qualified.
- ~85–87% of revenue from molecular diagnostics (RT-PCR / MDx), a structurally growing segment with high entry barriers and strong pricing power
- EBITDA margins expand to ~48–56% due to favourable mix (exports + AMR assays); among the highest in Indian diagnostics manufacturing
- Exports up ~50–110% YoY, export mix rises from ~11% to ~18%+; UK subsidiary (TRUPCR Europe) grows ~40%+ CAGR, opens doors to global tenders and long-term contracts
- Customer base expands from ~400 to ~600 labs; TRUPCR kits sold in 45+ countries; sticky relationships with labs due to validation + switching costs
- FY24–26E revenue CAGR ~22%, PAT CAGR ~20–25%; Q1FY25 PAT +77% YoY signals operating leverage kicking in
- Launched 3 AMR assays (Carbapenem, Acinetobacter, Cephalosporin); 5 more in pipeline; strong global demand due to antibiotic resistance focus
- ₹175–180cr cash (~70%+ of balance sheet); zero debt; ex-cash ROCE >100% highlights capital efficiency of core business
- Trading ~20–25x FY26E EPS despite superior margins, clean balance sheet, and export runway; scope for rerating as exports scale sustainably
- Stock derated due to fears over the margin-dilutive Coris acquisition, offering a GARP entry point.
9. HBL Engineering Ltd
- One of only 3 original RDSO-approved vendors.
- Massive ₹1,522 Cr order for on-board Kavach equipment on 2,200 locos
- Kavach has ~40%+ EBITDA margins. Addressable market ~36,000 route-km; ₹18,000–25,000cr opportunity. Even 25% share implies multi-year revenue visibility
- Only Indian maker of batteries for Electronic Fuzes (artillery). It also holds a strong position in submarine batteries (winning against Exide) and torpedo batteries (Varunastra)
- only Indian player (and one of few globally) to manufacture Pure Lead Thin batteries. These are gaining rapid traction in Data Centers (replacing VRLA due to space/charging efficiency) and Defence (battle tanks for cold starts), offering a high-margin alternative to the commoditized lead-acid business.
- The business is heavily dependent on Railways and Defence (government tenders). Delays in tender releases
- Trading ~20–22x FY27E P/E vs multi-decade visibility in rail safety, defence electronics and energy storage. Rerating likely as Kavach execution converts to earnings
- PAT CAGR >35% over FY25–28E; ROCE expands to ~25–28% with limited capex, improving working capital and falling interest costs
- Electronic fuses, submarine batteries, missile and aviation batteries scale up from FY27. E-fuses carry ~40–45% EBITDA margins with limited competition
- Electronics + defence batteries rise from ~15% to ~50% of revenue by FY27E. Margin-accretive mix drives structural EBITDA and PAT expansion
- Approved supplier for India’s indigenous Train Collision Avoidance System; addressable rollout ~36,000 route-km at ~₹50 lakh/km, ₹25,000–28,000cr total opportunity. Current Kavach order book ~₹3,700cr with execution over FY26–27
- Revenue mix transitions from batteries-heavy to electronics-led; Electronics share rises to ~50% by FY27E vs ~15% earlier, materially lifting EBITDA and PAT margins
- Gun and grenade electronic fuses ramp from FY27; EBITDA margins ~40–45%, limited domestic competition, strong profitability lever alongside Kavach
- Revenue CAGR ~45% over FY25–27E; PAT scales sharply with operating leverage, mix shift, and lower interest burden; ROCE improves to ~27–29% in peak years
- Post domestic Kavach execution, management targets global ATP markets (US, Europe, Africa) where pricing is ~10x India; defence exports also scale gradually
- ~22x FY27E P/E despite visible multi-year growth, high-entry-barrier products and improving return ratios; scope for premium as execution sustains
10. SJS enterprise
- Consistent 20-quarter track record of outperforming auto industry volume growth driven by increasing kit value per vehicle.
- Entry into Optical Cover Glass / Optical Plastics (currently 100% imported industry) serves as a massive value driver, potentially doubling content per vehicle.
- High ROCE (~23%) and EBITDA margin (25%+) business with a net-cash balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation to fund organic/inorganic growth.
- Reducing dependency on domestic 2W/PV via aggressive export expansion (targeting 14-15% revenue share) and recent marquee wins like Hero MotoCorp and Stellantis.
11. Tega industries
- Global leader in mill liners and consumables for mining. High entry barriers, mission-critical product, sticky customers.
- Structural tailwinds from copper and gold mining (electrification, EVs, energy transition)
- Acquisition of US-based Molycop ($1.5bn) is a massive small fish eats big fish event - positions Tega as a dominant global leader (deal is ~10x its size).
- Promoter Skin in the Game: Promoter sold all personal assets/land in 2000 to fund initial global expansion.
- Order book ~₹1,000cr+, ~90% international, strong visibility into FY26–27
- Strong Financials: Consistent EBITDA margins (~20%) with pricing power
12. CarTrade tech
- Only profitable new-age auto tech player (unlike cash-burning peers like Cars24/Spinny)
- Operates across discovery (CarWale, BikeWale), remarketing (Shriram Automall, CarTrade Exchange), trust layer (abSure) and classifieds (OLX India).
- Massive operating leverage playing out – Revenue growing ~30% while EBITDA/PAT doubling
- 90% organic traffic which means lowest customer acquisition cost in the industry; hard to replicate
- OLX Acquisition trigger: Acquired at distress value, now highly accretive; creates near-monopoly in used car classifieds
- Added ~30–40mn monthly users, doubling platform reach to ~75mn MUVs with ~95% organic traffic. Loss-making CTX shut; focus now on profitable classifieds with paid listings, subscriptions and ads
- Organic traffic dominance keeps acquisition cost minimal. Incremental revenue drops straight to EBITDA. Margins expand from ~23% to 30%+ over FY25–28E
- FY25–28E revenue CAGR ~25%, EBITDA CAGR ~37%. EBITDA margin expands from ~23.5% in FY25 to ~30%+ by FY28 as monetisation scales without CAC inflation
- Asset-light model: 97% of auto malls leased; fixed costs are stable leading to non-linear profit expansion
- Cyclical tailwind: Beneficiary of new car inventory clearing + structural shift to organized used car market
13. Privi Specialty
- India’s largest aroma chemical exporter; >20% global share in 10 key products, 75+ product portfolio, supplier to almost all large global F&F players
- DHMOL (“God molecule”, used in ~99% of modern perfumes), Amber Fleur, Terpineol drive ~60% revenue; high utilisation, repeat orders, strong pricing power
- ~70% export mix; global clients diversifying supply chains away from China, benefiting a reliable, integrated supplier like Privi
- FY25–28E revenue CAGR ~23–27%, EBITDA CAGR ~30–34%, PAT CAGR ~40–45% driven by mix shift, operating leverage, and new products
- PRIGIV JV produces high-complexity, low-volume fragrance molecules; sticky offtake, 20%+ EBITDA margins, meaningful contribution from FY27 onwards
- EBITDA margins sustained at ~22–25%; ROE ~25% and ROCE trending toward low-20s as asset turns improve and high-margin products scale
- Merger with Privi Fine Sciences adds bio-based molecules (furfural, CP, maltol). New products deliver >40% gross margins; contribution rises from low single digits to ~25%+ over next few years
- Core capacity expands from 48k MT to ~66k MT by FY28; additional 18k MT green chemistry capacity in FY27; capex largely brownfield, fast payback
- One of only 4 global players (and only Asian) using CST instead of GTO; 15–20% raw material cost edge + price stability via long-term contracts; margins structurally higher vs peers
- New JV with Givaudan (top global player) commercializing now; secures long-term offtake for high-margin specialty ingredients.
- Shift from commodity to value-added products (Camphor, Menthol) driving EBITDA margins north of 20% despite macro headwinds
- Trades at ~22–25x FY28E EPS with ROE ~25% and improving ROCE. Premium justified for global leadership, margin durability, and multi-year growth runway
Apologies for any errors. Some of these notes were written a few months back.