RR 2030 Portfolio

Hi @harsh_A

In my view: Mayur Uniquoters (MUL) is not a pure play Auto OEM, with revenue coming from following segments: (source: screener)

  • Footwear: 31%
  • Automobile replacement: 21%
  • Auto Domestic OEMs: 15%
  • Auto Export OEMs: 20%
  • General Exports: 8%
  • Others: 5%

Footwear segment has been a drag on revenue growth as well as margins for a long time and the company has not been able to address it adequately.

MUL thread on VP documents the company’s journey from being discovered by VP stalwarts (Nagabrahma, @Donald @hitesh2710 @basumallick and many more) in 2010 to becoming a 50-bagger and then losing the plot due to problems of scaling up and internal succession plan. I re-read the entire thread today and could visualize all of it like a cinematic story.

Coming back to answering your question:

  • MUL can be a turnaround story with revenue growth picking up since 2022, after years of stagnation at ~500 Crore. The revenue growth guidance from Mr Suresh Poddar in 23 May 2023 con-call is 17%, 18%, 25% & 30% for the next few years.
  • However, as per my assessment, the candidness of top management, which used to be one of the key highlights of con-calls during its early years are missing. So, I would like to see these numbers being delivered before taking a positive investing decision.

Not much activity on technical charts as well:

    1. Stock is in Stage-1 (Basing Area) and is oscillating around its 50 & 200 DMA, which are both flat. As per Stan Weinstein, “the basing action can go on for months or, in some cases, years”.
    1. The immediate resistance levels as per Fibonacci are 550 & 630, which are also major supply zones.
    1. RSI in this raging bull market is sub-60 and minor 2-3 signs of volume spikes in last 3 months.

Happy to know your POV and hypothesis :pray:

Disclaimer: My posts are not recommendations to Buy, Hold or Sell. DYOR.