Hi @harsh_A
In my view: Mayur Uniquoters (MUL) is not a pure play Auto OEM, with revenue coming from following segments: (source: screener)
- Footwear: 31%
- Automobile replacement: 21%
- Auto Domestic OEMs: 15%
- Auto Export OEMs: 20%
- General Exports: 8%
- Others: 5%
Footwear segment has been a drag on revenue growth as well as margins for a long time and the company has not been able to address it adequately.
MUL thread on VP documents the company’s journey from being discovered by VP stalwarts (Nagabrahma, @Donald @hitesh2710 @basumallick and many more) in 2010 to becoming a 50-bagger and then losing the plot due to problems of scaling up and internal succession plan. I re-read the entire thread today and could visualize all of it like a cinematic story.
Coming back to answering your question:
- MUL can be a turnaround story with revenue growth picking up since 2022, after years of stagnation at ~500 Crore. The revenue growth guidance from Mr Suresh Poddar in 23 May 2023 con-call is 17%, 18%, 25% & 30% for the next few years.
- However, as per my assessment, the candidness of top management, which used to be one of the key highlights of con-calls during its early years are missing. So, I would like to see these numbers being delivered before taking a positive investing decision.
Not much activity on technical charts as well:
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- Stock is in Stage-1 (Basing Area) and is oscillating around its 50 & 200 DMA, which are both flat. As per Stan Weinstein, “the basing action can go on for months or, in some cases, years”.
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- The immediate resistance levels as per Fibonacci are 550 & 630, which are also major supply zones.
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- RSI in this raging bull market is sub-60 and minor 2-3 signs of volume spikes in last 3 months.
Happy to know your POV and hypothesis
Disclaimer: My posts are not recommendations to Buy, Hold or Sell. DYOR.