Added some more Hawkins at 2240.
Cera is down after news on capex for expansion. Will add if it goes down further.
shifted from astral to unichem at 180.
Reason… Unichem seems to improve things in near future. Management seems to b buying a lot. Valuations are good.
Astral seems to be fairly valued and I am a bit disturbed by the flat QoQ result and the thing abt forex.
Hey Rohit,
Why do you think Astral is a sell at current levels ? Kindly elaborate.
I think selling long term holdings early by “apparent fair valuation” or a poor quarter is not an ideal approach.
Also please elaborate why do you think Unichem will do better than Astral from here on ? Do you have any data points to base your decision on ?
Disc: Unichem and Astral are among my top 5 holdings.
Hello Rudra,
I was evaluating both Astral and Unichem. I know there is a big market out there and the price increase and good branding efforts in recent times should increase profits even more. So there is nothing negative about Astral. The reason I bought Astral was a sudden drop to 350. Now that it moved to 385 in a week, I shifted to Unichem, which dropped to from 189 odd 180 yesterday. I know it sounds like trying to time things but the opportunity showed up. Both are great companies and some switching in a volatile market adds to profits.
I feel that Unichem is turning around steadily. FY14 will be a good year. Mr Mody has been buying lots of shares even near 52 week highs. That adds to the conviction.
Plus, I wanted to get into Pharma sector. It is my first Pharma buy. I already hold Kajaria and Cera which are a bit similar to Astral in a broad sense.
Added more Unichem at 171
Added more Unichem at 179 and Gruh at 217.
Added more Page at 3312, Unichem at 169, Indusind at 423 and Titan at 250
| Page | 21 |
| Hawkins | 18 |
| Mayur | 15 |
| IndusInd | 14 |
| Unichem | 8 |
| Kajaria | 7 |
| Gruh | 6 |
| Titan | 3 |
| ICICI | 3 |
| HDFC | 2 |
| MPS | 2 |
| Cera | 2 |
Latest portfolio. Short term bets are MPS and ICICI Bank. I will watch Mayur and plan to reduce it after a couple of quarters or so. Not selling because it will attract short term capital gains. Will also wait for some re rating in Unichem and then exit.
Watchlist- Astral for long term. Canfin for short term.
hi rohit
what are your views on titan after its fall? Also by short term are you looking at price targets based on some kind of trigger? if so what is your target for mps?
Hi Sunny,
I think Titan is a good buy at these levels.
Fastrack is doing good. I like the concept of their new stores. I expect Tanishq sales to go up with the drop in gold prices. The govt is taking measures to prevent blind “investment” in gold but it seems that they will bring down the CAD, which will make the rupee stronger and gold still cheaper. Its true that the mandate of producing PAN above a purchase of Rs 50000 can have some effect, I think people can still buy in multiple instances. With expansion into Tier 2 and 3 cities, it will continue a decent growth. I also read that it was going down because of FTSE rebalancing which got over today.
Luckily, I added Titan today at 230 before it went up 5.
I will add more if the price goes down further. I normally average after price goes down 15% or more.
Reducing allocation in Mayur. Sold ICICI and HDFC Bank, Cera. Booked some loss in MPS. Bought Kaveri at 1395, Unichem around 168 and Gruh between 192-200.
Sold Canfin at 162 that I had bought at 140. Plan to re-enter
Current allocation Aimed allocation
Page 20% 20
Hawkins 17 17
Indusind 16 16
Gruh 15 15
Mayur 9 0
Unichem 9 9
Kajaria 7 6
Titan 4 4
Kaveri 3 8
Canfin 0 5
Confused on whether to consolidate further by completely selling off Titan and Kajaria to Kaveri and Canfin. Please give your comments.
I have one question regarding short term capital gains. I bought Mayur in Aug last year and made good profit. Inviting views on this issue of tax on churning.
One stock which demands a higher allocation at these levels is Unichem. Portfolio allocation and stock shift is purely investor specific.
Use ValuePickr capital allocation framework. Unichem with high conviction + under priced + very limited downside certainly calls for a higher allocation.
Hello Rudra,
Thanks for you suggestion. I also like Unichem alot. Promoter is buying, turnaround is almost on track and the rupee devaluation should also help I guess. The dividend yield is also quite good at around 2.6%
The problem I have is which one should I reduce among Titan, Kajaria, Mayur. Maybe All.
Titan has bounced back smartly from 230 and next Q will have good sales because of drop in gold prices.
I dont want to sell Page and Gruh as these will give stability to the portfolio.Indusind has done very good recently and is the biggest beneficiary of rate cut. It can continue to grow at 30%. Hawkins is a bit debatable but it could give a 30-40% return in a year if everything goes well.
For the ones with very large portfolios like 15x -20x times annual salaries it is essential to have solid anchor stocks. Stocks like HDFC twins/Titan/Page/ even Hawkins come to my mind.
Apart from the earnings/profits and the usual multiples it is the kind of scarcity premium they command for a potential acquirer that will never allow these to trade cheaply. Hence downside is fairly protected at all times.
For the ones with much smaller PF size 2x-5x times annual salaries, one can strategize broader themes and play around. Here one can move away from the safer names to be more aggressive, provided the they do not lose sleep over volatility.
The idea is to allow these themes to play out and don’t look at quarterly figures.
The urban housing theme. Financiers for growth beyond large cities (Gruh/Repco) and pseudo infra names (Astral/Cera/Kajaria). This theme should be played for next 8-10 years at least.
Another theme would be pseudo play on consumption like Automobiles on ancillary stocks (Amara Raja/Mayur Uni). Volatility is bound to be more here. The idea is to not sell out during down cycles but raise stakes, so once the downturn subsides gains could be potentially higher. So these would be real long term bets.
Along with this we need to participate in short term opportunities (Symphony/Kaveri etc) depending on short - medium outlook. Supported by strong business and superior balance sheets, the chances of downside debacles are lower.
Allocate Portfolio %age between these buckets “Stable Compounders - Stalwarts”, “Thematic Long Term Plays”, “Short Term plays”. Idea is to have bucket level allocations intact despite of stock shifts.
Hi Rohit,
I checked your portfolio only now.I am still bullish on Mayur and will hold. Mayur is facing some issue pertaining to domestic slowdown only. Their exports should offbeat this. Besides their margins should improve with backward integration, R&D expenses getting subsidized, exports etc. FY14 should be good for them.
Kaveri is too good and you can move some of your mayur portfolio allocation if you wish to. Mayur and kaveri are stocks to be in the long term portfolio.
rudra,
problem with unichem has been its incosistency in results. company got into restructuring earlier and again the Q3 results were not impressive though Q4 was decent. in this environment of earning debacles, market rewards consistency a lot. stocks like sun, lupin and ajanta have been rewarded for their consitency in growth and their valuations have gone higher and higher every quarter. this is one reason why unichem has been lagging even in this amazing pharma bull run. onceit starts showing consistent growth, it should get re-rated to multiples of 18-20 on TTM basis and even higher if this pharma bull run reaches euphoric stages. i believe this pharma has a lot to go on the upside and if unichem can get its act together, this could deliver stellar returns. until consistency comes in, it remains a low allocation bet for me.
Hi Rudra,
I am following the strategy of having a core portfolio with Stalwarts and quality growth stocks like Page, Hawkins, Gruh and IndusInd. I would say Gruh is a class apart from Astral, Cera, Kajaria.
Then I have a satellite mid term portfolio with Unichem, Kaveri and plan to add Canfin.
I feel that the price war between Amamra Raja and exide will not be good for an investor. I will stay away.
Problem as I said occurs when prioritizing amongst these and consolidating the portfolio. Thats the reason I am thinking of selling Mayur. I feel that the undervaluation in Kaveri and Canfin should give a large room for a larger upside. Donald also mentioned this in the Valuepickr scorecard thread.
Thanks Krishna for your comments. It took me very long to decide to sell Mayur.
@hemant…I think Unichem is a good bet because of its limited downside and a large upside. The results have been improving and dividend has been good. But I plan to keep it to 10% of my portfolio. In my opinion once it starts moving, it can go up alot in few days.
Current PF
Allocation Profit/loss
Hawkins 25% -1%
Page 21 39
Gruh 13 11
Indusind 13 14
Unichem 10 -4.5
Mayur 8 96
Kajaria 5 18
Kaveri 2 -9
HDFC bank 3 2
Planning to add more HDFC bank and Kaveri at CMP. I had earlier sold Kaveri at 1600 and then bought a small qty at 1680. Bad move, lesson learnt.
Even ICICI looks very cheap at these levels. HDFC went up from 490 odd to 650 and ICICI has gone nowehere in 1 year. The management seems to be doing a good job with cautious expansion. The performance has been improving slowly. But still long way away from HDFC bank. If by any chance the NPAs dont go up, I think it can easily go up 10% in a week.
Will hold Mayur till next month to avoid short term gains and then decide on whether to sell it based on the results. Strong dollar and slight improvement in US economy may give good support to earnings but the domestic situation isn’t very encouraging.
In the long run, I would like to add more page and make it 25-30% of the portfolio. Lets see when I get the chance to accumulate more. Will buy slowly below 4200.
Hawkins results as always remain uncertain.
Posting an update of current portfolio and a note on my recent mistakes/learnings. Sold Kajaria, Unichem, Mayur and HDFC bank. Added more Page, Repco, Avanti, Shilpa and Polymed. Allocation % Average Price Hawkins 27 1960 Page 23 3345 Gruh 13 203 Indusind 20 370 Kaveri 8 1485 Repco 3 251 Poly Medicure 2 170 Avanti Feeds 2 230 Shilpa Med 2 190 Now coming to the biggest mistakes 1). I sold Mayur at 220 (adjusted) just to see it break that range and move above 260. I realize that I should have held on to it from both fundamental AND technical pov. Looking back, my decision came more out of frustration of it not moving for a long time. I sold it thinking that the depreciating rupee will heavily increase the raw material prices. I read that the risk of forex is offset by increasing exports. I wonder if it gets completely offset because the exports are around 20%. Anyway, even if it doesn’t get offset, I should have held on to it and Mayur would have delivered. It is difficult to find companies like Mayur. 2). Recently, I bought Avanti at 240 (and then at 220). I bought it when it went up from 210 to 240 in a few sessions. At 240, I felt that I will miss the bus if I dont buy now. I need to control the emotions in such situations. I am pretty happy with my capital allocation. I am not very good at analysing new companies but I think that all in all the PF has good businesses and it should do well. Although, I have thought of increasing allocations to the last 3 in the list, but I think it may not be a great idea to sell Hawkins, IndusInd, Gruh at this point of time. Hawkins- Remains illusive but I think this will start to deliver sooner or later. TTK reported a flat Q2 so lets see how Hawkins performs. If it doesnt report good numbers, the stock can go down towards 1500. I would add more around those levels. If it does start delivering and price goes up, I will think of booking some profits around 2800 or so. Page- I have full conviction in this one. Page has been the best performer after Mayur. Recently added more at 3850-3900. I would buy with all gunpowder if it goes to 4000. IndusInd- The Management has proved its mettle over the years. Even in Q2, they managed to grow 32%. Earlier, I had bought more HDFC bank around 580, sold today at 655 and bought IndusInd at 405. My decision to sell HDFC Bank and buy more IndusInd can be argued upon. But I think that even though IndusInd may go down sharply on negative news, I think it will bounce back strongly. Kaveri- The excellent results of FY13 and the superb research by Donald drew me to this one. Conviction still not very high. A large chunk comes from cotton seeds and any regulatory decision or farmers choosing other crops can dent it. I checked up on PI, Shilpa and Polymed pretty recently. I might decide to shift parts of Kaveri to Polymed/Shilpa after we get the recco on VP portfolio.