RIL: Is the 'Reliance" on 'Jio' Justified?

Came to know that, if they convert their store to a Jiomart outlet then Jio will redesign their store according to their standard. But kinara owner has limited space and redesigning according to that format would entail lesser stocking of items.

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Discl - invested.

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Notes from RIL 2019-20 AR -

Consolidated turnover - 659205 cr, up 5.4 pc
Consolidated EBITDA - 102280 cr, up 10.4 pc
Consolidated PAT - 44,324 cr cr, up 11.3 pc
EPS - 70.7, up 5.7 pc

Net Debt as on 31 Mar 2020 - 161000 cr. Total fund raising post 31 mar - 175000 cr. RIL now - net debt free

Employees - 1.95 lakh
Contribution to national exchequer - 1.15 lakh cr
Environment - saplings planted -2.2 cr
Rain water harvesting capacity since inception - 9.9 cr m cube

CSR expenditure - 1022 cr

REFINING and MARKETING -

Oil demand lowest since 2011. RIL continued to outperform singapore complex margins with a premium of $ 5.7 / barrelā€¦signifigantly above 5 yr avg. Petro retail - diesel up 9.8 pc, gasoline up 14.7 pc.

Refining and marketing - revenues - 3.87,522 cr , down 1.6 pc.
EBITDA - 24,461 cr, down 6.1 pc

Petrochemicals -

Segment revenues at 145264 cr, down 15.4 pc.

EBITDA - 30,933 cr

Key products - paraxylene, Monoethylene Glycol, polyethylene terephthalate, polypropylene, polyethylene

Oil and Gas -

Three proctects in KG D6 block are on track to monetise discoveries. Peak production from these 3 fields expected to reach 1 BCP per day by 2023, about 15 pc of Indiaā€™s demand that year.

JIO PLATFORMS -
Aims to provide solutions for -

**TELECOM, FIN SERVICES, HEALTHCARE, E- COMMERCE, EDUCATION, MEDIA AND GAMING , AGRICULTURE, SAMRT CITIES, GOVT TO CITIZEN DELIDERY, MANUFACTURING, HOSPITALITY **

**Jio Mart launched in 200 cities. Touching 5 lakh orders per day. **

****Jio POS lite initiated - 10 lakh agents on boarded for recharges and new aqquisitions. ****

****Strenghtened partnership and provided ininterrupted services to kiranas. ****

Launched AJIO - online fashion and lifestyle platform

Launched Jio Meet

RELIANCE RETAIL - Covered in previous post

Segmental stats -

Retail-

Sales - 1.62, 936 cr ( 24 pc of RILā€™s consolidated sales )

EBITDA - 9654 cr ( 9.4 pc of RILā€™s consolidated EBITDA )

Digital Services -

Jio - ranked no -1 by AGR and total subscribers.
Also rolling out state of the art wireline services across India. This will lay strong platform for offering platform based digital services. Company has consolidated all its tech capabilities, connectivity business into a single holding company - Jio Platforms.

Segment Revenues - 68,462 cr ( 10 pc of RILā€™s consolidated revenues )

EBITDA - 22514 cr ( 22 pc of RILā€™s consolidated EBITDA )

Total Retail + Jio platforms EBITDA at 32168 cr ( aprox 32 pc of RILā€™s consolidated EBITDA )

And these two are fast growing, new gen , tech based businesses for the future

Refining and Marketing -

Revenues at 3,87,522 cr ( 58 pc RILā€™s consolidated revenues )

EBITDA at 24461 cr ( 24 pc of RILā€™s consolidated EBITDA )

GRM at $ 8.9 / barrel outperforming singapore complex margins by $ 5.7 / barrel

Petrochemicals -

Revenues at 1,45,264 cr ( 22 pc of RILā€™s consolidated revenues )
Ebitda at 30,933 cr ( 30 pc of RILā€™s consolidated Ebitda )

Oil and Gas - revenues at 3211 cr ( 3 pc of RILā€™s consolidated revenues )
Ebitda at 353 cr ( 0.35 pc of RILā€™s consolidated EBITDA )

For the yr, RILā€™s share of domestic production was 39 BCF and RILā€™s share of Shale production was 80 BCF - both down substantially , yoy.

Other Income - 13,956 cr ( primarily interest income )

Finance cost - 22,027 cr

Depreciation cost - 22,203 cr

EPS - 70.1 vs 66.8 in the PY

Fixed assets - 6,31,505 cr

Capex for the yr at - 77,444 cr - across all verticals like - digital services, petchem projects, refining business, organised retail.

Gross Debt on 31 Mar - 3,26,000 cr
Gross Investments ( liquid ) - 1,75,000 cr
And after that - the great fund raising of 1,75,000 cr took placeā€¦making reliance Industries Net Debt free

I ll try and cover the other aspects in the next post.

Disc : invested

Regards
Ranvir Dehal

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Continuing with the RIL story -

JIO Platforms -

Still, smart phone penetration in India at only 65 cr users, constrained by avlb of affordable devices for lowest economic strata. No of feature phone users at 35 cr- using 2G/3G services.

Over last 2 yrs, Jio Phone has transitioned over 10 cr erstwhile feature phone users to 4G network. Rural smartphone penetration still low at 28 pc.

Jio wireless marketshare - 43 pc

Jio is No 1 service provider in 17 out of 22 circles across India. Circles where Jio is not No 1 are- Delhi, Mumbai, Karnataka, TN, Kerala

After the Investment of Facebook into Jio, Jio Platforms , Reliance retail and Whatsapp entered into a commercial partnership to accelerate reliance retailā€™s digital commerce business on Jio Mart platform using Whatsapp. This will help Kirana stores provide products and services to their catchment homes using Jiomart on Whatsapp

Microsoftā€™s Investment in Jio will promote adoption of Microsoft Azure cloud platform and Tech stack to its enterprise customers. Also, Jio will leverage the Microsoftā€™s Azure cloud platform to develop innovative cloud solutions focussed on the needs of Indian Businesses.

WIRED BROADBAND -

Increase in Broadband connections across in 2019-20 - 50 pc YoY, still overall penetration - abysmal at 7 pc.

Fiber to home ( FTH ) - being eyed as a huge greenfield opportunity for Jio. Aims to connect 5 cr homes and 1.5 cr enterprises across 1600 cities / towns.
Current Jio fiber connections - 10 lakh.

**Jio fiber to provide the following - **
High Speed internet
Home networking
Free HD voice
Security and Surveillance
TV Plus
Gaming
TV video calling
Music
Movies , TV shows, Videos on Demand

Jioā€™s rich Suite of Digital apps -

Jio TV - 680 channels, 15 languages
Jio Cinema - 10000 + movies, 1,20,000 + episodes, 60,000+ music videos
Ji Money
Jio news- 190 + live channels, 800+ magazines
Jio Savan - Indiaā€™s no 1 OTT music app with 5.5 cr tracksacross 16 languages

Jio has done deep integration of Ji savan, Jio cinema, and Jio Cloud among othersinto Myjio to provide single window access to all apps.

Future expansion - education, healthcare, agriculture and e-governance.

MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT

Channels -

CNBC TV 18
CNBC Awaz
Colours
Colours Rishtey
Colours Cineplex
Colours Infinity
News India 18
News 18
CNN news 18
Comedy Central
History Channel
VH1
MTV
Total Viewership share at 12 pc

Digitals assets -

Moneycontrol
News 18
Firstpost
CNBC TV 18
BookmyShow

Publishing business -

Overdrive
Better interiors
Forbes India

Filmed entertainment -

Viacom18 studios
Jio Studios
Better Photography

Media and entertainment financials -

Sales - 5357 cr , up 4pc
EBITDA - 617 cr , up 200 pc. ( vs 102000 cr for RIL as a consolidated entity )

I ll cover the REFINING and MARKETING , PETCHEM IN SUBSEQUENT POSTS

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
Disc - invested

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RIL summary contdā€¦

REFINING AND MARKETING -

Refining Products -

High speed diesel, gasoline

LPG

Feedstock for propylene

Naptha - which is a feedstock for rthylene, propylene, fertilizers and fuel in power plants

Sulphur - feedstock for fertilizers and pharmaceuticals

Petro Retail -

Retail of petrol, diesel, LPG

Fleet Management services

A1 plaza - highway hospitality services

Refresh Foods - foodcourts on Highways

Qwik Mart - retail of beverages, snacks, gifts on highways

Relstar - Lubricants

Reliance - Jet aviation fuel

LAST FOUR YRS -

Revenues - 250 lakh, 306 lakh cr, 393 lakh cr, 387 lakh cr

EBITDA - 25k cr, 24.7 k cr, 22.8 k cr, 21.3 k cr

GRM ( $/ bbl ) - 11.0, 11.6, 9.2,8.9

Refinery sales - 73 MMT

Exports - 42 MMT
Domestic - 15 MMT
Captive - 13 MMT

Petro retail network - now at 1400 outlets, avg growth across outlets at 10 pc.

RIL to pioneer - High Density Polyethylene Packs ( HDPE packs ) for doorstep delivery of fuel in the country.

ATF -

Double digit growth seen in 52 consecutive Qtrs till Dec 2019.

Market share at domestic Airports - 20 pc.

Presently RIL ATF is avlb at 30 locations, to be expanded to 45 locations.

**NEW PROJECT - Petcoke gasification - **
Worldā€™s largest project has achieved steady state operations. The project at Jamnagar has achieved iconic status in the Gasification Universe.

PETROCHEMICALS -

Last three yr petchem division data -
Revenues - 1.25 lakh cr, 1.72 lakh cr, 1.45 lakh cr
EBITDA - 21.9 k cr, 32.39 k cr, 25.5 k cr

EBITDA margins - 14.1, 18.8, 17.6

Strategic advantages -

One of the most integrated players - globally
Leading mkt postn across categories
Comissioning high purity Iso-Butylene unit

Product portfolio -

Olefins - Ethylene, Propylene, Butadiene -used in industrial chemicals, polymers

Polymers - Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PVC - used in construction, agriculture, automobile, consumer goods, packaging

Polyesters- PFY,PSF,PET - used in Textile/Apparel industries and beverages

Aromatics and Fiber intermediates - PTA, MEG, Benzene, Paraxylene - Textile industries, industrial chemicals

Elastomers ( polymers with rubber like elasticity) - Butyl rubber, Poly butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber - used in typres and automobiles

Consumer facing launches -

RiELAN - next gen fabric brand made with speciality polyester fibers. RiELAN continued to grow consolidating its brand partnership with more than 50 brands and extending its value chain globally.

RELWOOD - composite material made up of natural fibers and polymers with the look and feel of wood. Advantages over wood - thermoforming, weatherability, water and termite proof, fire retartdancy.

RELINFORCE - range of carbon and glass fiber range of reinforced polymer systems for strengthening and protection of old structures and pipes.

RELX - composites solutions under the brand name Relx - to be supplied to composite material manufacturers across India.

Disc : invested

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Detailed discussion regarding upcoming Spectrum auction and expected price hike with Telecom expert Rajiv sharma. Best part is that he is giving the details from the perspective of Industry and not from the perspective of any company per se.

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Notes from RIL Q2 results -

Sales - 1.28 lakh cr, down 22 pc yoy, up 27 pc qoq
EBITDA - 23.3 k cr , down 9.8 pc, up 7.9 pc qoq
Finance cost - 6084 cr, up 11 pc yoy, down 9.7 pc qoq
Depreciation - 6626 cr, up 24 pc yoy, up 5 pc qoq
Tax - (-) 13 cr vs 3703 cr LY vs 260 cr LQ
NP - 10.6 k cr, down 6.6 pc yoy, up 28 pc qoq

CONDOLIDATED EBITDA CONTRIBUTORS- current qtr vs Q1

Refining and Marketing - 3002 cr vs 3818 cr
Petrochemicals - 5964 cr vs 4430 cr
Retail - 2009 cr vs 1083 cr
Digital Services - 8345 vs 7803 cr
Oil and Gas - (-) 194 cr vs (-) 32 cr
Others - 4173 vs 4383 cr

EBITDA Contribution from consumer businesses - 49 pc

Other highlights -

Added 232 new retail stores

Activity levels in retail stores likely to be back to pre COVID levels by 3Q

Total money raised - 2.5 lakh cr
Recieved till 30 Sep - 1.46 lakh cr
Balance commitments - 74 k cr

Funds being used to retire Debt

Benifits of lower interest cost to be visible from next Qtr

Jio postpaid plus - Industry first bundling of Netflix, Amazon prime and Disney plus HotstarJio - total customers - 40.56 cr, additions during the Qtr - 73 lakh, ARPU- 145 vs 127 last year, per capita wireless data per month - 12 GB vs 11.7 GB LY

New Single plan for entire family, with data rollover

Superior international services - Unlimited roaming in USA, UAE

Good growth in Digital business - led by AJIO, Jiomart and Rel Digital

Entered E-Pharmacy during the Qtr - acquired Netmeds

Acquired - Future groupā€™s retail/wholesale, logistics and warehousing business

Jiomart - Kirana partnerships extended to 20 cities

Company to accelrate new store openings - particularly in fashion and lifestyle

Disc : invested

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Kiranas will source goods from Reliance or elsewhere. In the case of products ordered on JioMart and not in stock with the kiranas ā€” which typically sell the 300-400 most popular items ā€” Reliance Retail will supply them and the margins will be shared equally. However, Reliance will continue with the sale of perishables such as fruits and vegetables from its stores or fulfilment centres, the business daily mentioned.
.
Further Reliance Retail has decided to shelve its B2B cash-and-carry store format, Reliance Market, which will be turned into fulfilment centres for B2B delivery of products to kiranas. The neighbourhood stores will place their orders online and get deliveries at their outlets.

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This is a smart move by Reliance. For most of the orders, the time to deliver to customer would be down to a few hours at max. Also, reduces the last mile logistics costs.
Slowly, as the ecosystem gets entrenched and Reliance gets data on what products are most needed and where, the company can make more efficient decisions.

Media-Release-RIL-Q3-FY21-22012021.pdf (827.7 KB)

Disc : Invested

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RIL Q3 HIGHLIGHTS -

JIO PLATFORMS ( QoQ) -

Sales at 22858 cr, up 5.3 pc
EBITDA at 8483 cr, up 6.4 pc
NP at 3489 cr, up 15 pc
Total Customers at 41.08 cr, up 52 lakh
ARPU at Rs 151 vs Rs 145

Jio Meet users at 1.5 cr

Reliance Retail -

Sales at 37845 cr, down 7.9 pc
EBITDA at 3087 cr, up 53.9 pc
NP at 1830 cr, up 88 pc due - doubling of sales contribution from fashion and lifestyle segments,cost management and boost from higher investment income at 770 cr

Toatl operational stores - 12201, new additions at 327 cr

96 pc of the stores were open during the Qtr. However, only half of them were fully operational.

Grocery and Electronics sustained double digit growth while Fashion and Lifestyle business delivered a strong rebound, surpassing pre COVID levels.

Acquired 96 pc stake in - URBAN LADDER during the Qtr

Digital commerce - up 12 times, YoY

Jewelry sales grew in high double digits over PY and nearly doubled over previous Qtr. Launched new range of collections.

Oil to Chemicals -

Sales at 88838 cr, up 10 pc QoQ
EBITDA at 9756 cr, up 10.3 pc

MEDIA BUSINESS -

Sales - 1650 cr, up 33 pc QoQ
EBITDA - 324 cr, up 95 pc QoQ

CONSOLIDATED -

Sales at 137829 cr up 7.4 pc QoQ
EBITDA at 26094 cr, up 12 pc QoQ
PAT - 15015 cr, up 40 pc QoQ

Outstanding Debt on 31 Dec 2020 was 257412 cr. Cash and Cash Equivalents at 220524 cr

Disc - invested from 1700 levels

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Hey @ranvir
Any idea why reliance has been paying nearly nil tax for 3 quarters now? Used to be 25+ percentā€¦ but single digit last 3 quarters. Attached the screenshot below.
Or is this an error on screener?

Disc: Not invested yet. Just begun studying. Please flag and delete if required.

On what basis you are saying RIL is not paying any tax?

@Rakesh_Aggarwal
Their last few quarter results. Tax has fallen sharply from a constant 20 to 28 percent to single digits. Just begun looking at their balance sheets and Operating income has been flat for 2 years. Wondering why the excemptions for tax and for how long they are exempt?
Again, please flag if inappropriate. Cheers.

78% cut in tax provision (current tax) in 9months is quite interesting. May be using some exemptions, only management can throw some light on it.

Cheers. So if Iā€™m reading this correctly they created a deferred tax asset last year and have recognised it and paid less current tax past few quarters alongside exemptions regards SEZ etc and this will revert to norm soon(This still doesnā€™t explain the full cut in tax though and Iā€™m still not sure I fully understand the huge drop)?

Articles covering reliance post previous few quarters keep talking about reliance PAT vs previous years and ignores the operating income being stagnant and considering this is the first time Iā€™m looking at Reliance seriously it came as a bit of a shock.

Could be a good entry point in a couple quarters when other income reduces and the 20+ percent tax rate eats into the profit margin and the media goes crazy reporting decline in profits/panic etc since the long term story regards jio and retail look strong.
Thanks again.

Edit: Thanks @kartiks

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Agreed @kartiks . Seeing jio and retail contribution to P&L this quarter was impressive and got me interested. I canā€™t see reliance getting anything but a lot bigger and more powerful over the next decade. That being said the negatives have to be looked at too like the number of new subscribers added for jio this quarter being the lowest in a while plus what happens to subscriber addition growth which has already slowed down when tarrifs are hiked in FY22(arpu increase this quarter was impressive)
Trying to figure out an entry point and was checking to see if today was itā€¦but by the looks of it there will be one soon enough once the full weight of taxes and decrease in other income hits the balance sheet over the next few quarters. Thanks again

Not a sebi advisor and not invested yet

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ARPU increase will be by all players not just for Jio, so donā€™t expect much negative because of that.

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