RBL BANK - Is it a Good Long Term Story?

In my previous company where shares are listed in US and EU, there will be black period where Employees cannot make transactions. As per below notification
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/5fc6e60a-7c4f-42a2-bfd2-18b5dbea6d5b.pdf trading window closed for designated persons from July 1 to July 21 i.e 2 days after Quarterly results.

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Maybe what you are talking is RSU(Resticted stock units) which gets 25% gets vested every year i think…they are used a retention tool in corporate …but they are different from employee stock options i believe

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/d02fd8a9-b52f-4715-88a4-011017ed684c.pdf To filing to exchange says "Further, no Management Committee member including Key Managerial Personal (KMP) have sold any shares on July 30, 2019 and thereafter till date. "

HDFC.xls (55.3 KB) IndusInd.xls (20.1 KB) RBL.xls (113.8 KB)

I have done comparison in HDFC , IndusInd, RBL between last 4 month of transaction i found out that all bank do esop,selling but in RBL the data is huge as compared to hdfc or indusind may be because of the price fluctuation that share has seen. i trust the management i am invested in this stock but if this matter is taken casually then there is big question mark on integrity of Management :frowning:

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I feel insider trading has less to do with the fall in share price, it is more due to fear that the NPAs could be more than 2.5-3% in the next 6-12 months. Also RBL have guided towards lower growth projection for the next year. Hence the price got corrected from the premium. However is it too early to write off the future story, numbers should be closely watched in the next 1-2 quarter result.

I had sold out 90% of my holding at 550-600 level last year. Slowly started buying at 325 level. Will look to add up more at every 10% fall.

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RBL Bank-backed microlender Utkarsh SFB plans ₹500 crore IPO

Rating update. Reaffirmed.

http://www.careratings.com/upload/CompanyFiles/PR/RBL%20Bank%20Ltd-10-09-2019.pdf

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Usually when a stock crashes noticeably more than its sector index, it raises all sorts of red flags for retail investors who are certainly not privy to what might really be cooking.

Whereas, the ones following every beat closely have a higher level of confidence.

RBL is now trading at its IPO listing price.

When price breakdown happens with constant news it causes more damage. Better sit out and buy slowly if u believe the company will get over all the issues in near term.

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RBL clarified that Indiabulls exposure is 0.25%-0.3%. FDs from indiabulls are 125% of the loans given to it and can be recovered in 2 hrs with company permission.
listen here : https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1178969778381180928?s=20

Zee exposure of 700+cr (not confirmed by mgmt, this number is making rounds), may be reduced as Zee promoter sold stake worth 4200 cr.

Even CCD group sold 2800 cr worth techpark , so CCD exposure of 170 cr ( again not confirmed) may be cleared completely

Many lenders sold pledged shares of ccd and zee in open market to recover some amount.
We shud wait till Oct 22nd for real clarity. but at 1.6 times book with a growing book value, it a no brainer…

Remember RBL bank is india’s largest pos machine(card swiping machine) network. So festive season fee income can be huge.
Reserve Bank of India - Bankwise ATM/POS/Card Statistics (as of july 2019)

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Wow, what a thread, shows how price change people’s perception
@Yogesh_s and @rupeshtatiya hinted early warning signals.
Some kid with no experience suggested a top contributor not to worry about all the warnings and just enjoy the growth story. Huge ESOPs and capital raising, Aggressive multi year growth of an unseasoned commercial bank with poor ratios. Also, the bank have a good chunk of wholesale loan book which is yet to turn NPAs? Not sure will Ahujas ever report them. RBL fortunes now depend on how long the GDP slow down persists. If it persists longer, raising capital at lower price will be a double blow with poor ROA. Also, with raising NPAs leading to poor loan growth, 2020 road map will falter. But if economy turnaround happens quick, RBL will get out of bear grip and should be back soon.

Not invested. Going through many finance companies just for sectorial comparison and pondered over RBL as the price has fallen so much like yes, dhfl all of a sudden

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NIM : 4.35%
Loan growth at 12qtr low & <30% for 1st time in yrs
Watchlist : 1800cr vs 1000cr QOQ
Slippages : 1377 cr vs 225cr QOQ
Slippage ratio : 9.4% vs 1.58% QOQ
GNPA : 1539 cr, +95% QOQ GNPA ratio : 2.6% vs 1.38% QOQ Writeoffs : 313cr

The result shows why it was beaten down in 3-4 weeks

Very weak set of results as management guided npa could rise to 2.5% and it came so. Profits declined due to spike in provisions. Markets discount future earnings before actual earnings come. Has market discounted rbl worse wrt to price correction, I think it will tank more.

RBL is a small bank and will be more vulnerable, also MF holding is huge in RBL, in current market this kind of results may attract panic selling, still bottom out process is 6 months away, we found one cockroach, lets see how many more come out

Detailed breakup provided with the result this time.

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/bd77e083-c7fa-4120-8053-300b38c69cad.pdf

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HDFC Sec Report on Q2 Results Update

Nirmal Bang Report

Check out page no 10 of hdfc report. They have been mostly positive on the stock and turned neutral at price of 500 few months back. So they have mostly been behind the game and I will not be surprised that even now they will end up being conservative when the elephant is mostly out of the room.
Disc: not invested…

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RBL_Buy_Angelbrokering_1.11.2019.pdf (286.0 KB)

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