New, 7th JDA project worth 3000 crores revenue
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I’ve been diving really deep into Raymond Realty lately because there is a massive price-to-reality disconnect happening right now, which is even more obvious with today’s latest updates. Just today, March 9th, management officially announced their seventh Joint Development Agreement—a massive ₹3,000 crore residential project in Kandivali that pushes their total Gross Development Value to a staggering ₹43,000 crores. Despite this huge news today, the stock is barely reacting and has been hovering sluggishly around the ₹375 to ₹380 level, proving the market is heavily discounting their prime 100-acre Thane land bank and punishing them for their margins compressing to 13% in Q3, essentially treating their future growth guidance as a bit of a false promise. However, my ground-level channel checks tell a crazy story about what’s actually happening behind the scenes for Q4. To hit their massive FY26 guidance, they need to pull in about ₹1,300 crores this quarter alone, and they are pulling every single lever to do it. I’ve seen local sales executive WhatsApp statuses showing them throwing heavy incentives at brokers, like an extra 1% brokerage on luxury 4BHK deals and a 0.50% bonus for converting EOIs within a tight two-day window, plus pushing a 20:80 subvention scheme to ruthlessly front-load cash collections. The sales engine is absolutely firing, meaning Q4 top-line numbers are going to look explosive and could easily trigger a short-term breakout to correct this muted price action we are seeing today, but there is a massive elephant in the room regarding corporate governance that explains why the market won’t give them a premium valuation. When you look at their Related Party Transactions, things get very murky; for example, they booked ₹425 crores in revenue from Eternal Building Assets Pvt Ltd, but their trade receivables from them are sitting at a glaring ₹742 crores, meaning they are logging the revenue on paper without collecting the actual cash fast enough. You even see circular risks with entities like Artemis Electricals acting as both customers and vendors, which inflates turnover without generating real external cash flow. So, while I think the stock is a strong trade for the short-term because of this aggressive Q4 sales push and the massive Kandivali pipeline they just added today, I seriously question if management’s promise to return to 18 to 20 percent margins is realistic given how much they are paying brokers to move inventory, making it a highly watchful hold for the long term until they clean up those receivables.
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Was this question asked in todays concall? I agree with CG because if you tell someone about the stock they immediately question Mr. Singhania.
I invested knowing promoter history and kept allocation in line with the risk.
Does anyone attended it? If anyone did then please share what was discussed
Is this the reason why the other group stock Raymond ( JK Maini) the aerospace arm is trading at such low pe and low ev/ ebidta
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This is transcript of today Concall made by me with help of Ai.
Raymond_Realty_Arihant Concall Transcript (77.5 KB)
yes i joined that concall and attended with full energy. i will share notes and insights tomorrow
disc- biggest holding with high conviction. Recent Transaction in last 7 days