Ravi's Portfolio - Seeking Feedback

Above is snapshot of my Equity portfolio.

Objective

  • To keep these for long term (10 yrs).
  • Medium to low risk portfolio
  • To keep 10-12 stocks
  • One MF - Parag Parekh is for diversification purpose
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NOCIL and Phillips Carbon - Stocks are for short term and plan to sell soon.

Ravi - For someone to comment, do share your thoughts around:

  1. Investment Goal
  2. For each business, What is/are the:
  • Rationale
  • Key Risk
  • Key Monitorable
  1. What diversification MF (indirect equity exposure) provides?
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Thanks for checking.

  1. Investment Goal

Wealth creation in long term with decent (expectation 15% CAGR)

  1. For each business, What is/are the:
  • Rationale
  • Key Risk
  • Key Monitorable

Broadly selected stocks with some kind of moat. Prefer consumer segment, B2C.
LTTS - very few IT companies are in real R&D. LTTS is one of them, and I feel this business can grow exponentially if they are able to stick to plans.

Risk - valuations

  1. What diversification MF (indirect equity exposure) provides?

Since I plan to keep 10-12 stocks, which I can monitor closely. This makes overall portfolio as concentrated. MF added to avoid further addition of stocks in portfolio. Also this investment goes through SIP, so not tracking valuations etc.

On risk front, I was thinking business risk but you listed risk relevant to your expected return.

NOCIL & Philips Carbon - No comments as you plan to flip them.
MF - No comment.
HDFC Life - No competence. No comment.

/Good Business - I think Yes for all except ITC which is too diversified to focus & has huge float of equity capital.
/Sector wise - Diversified.
/Time Horizon - Reasonable for equity investment.
/ Expected Returns - Reasonable from equity investment.
/Good Investment considering your goal of 15% CAGR - As of now, growth expectation from all these names (except ITC) is very high, reflected in elevated P/E. If the market’s enthusiasm sustains for these names, you could expect to have capital gains that mimic the earnings growth.

Below aspects need deep work (quantitative, qualitative and psychological) at your end to evolve a plan that addresses :

  • If market nosedives-a very likely scenario considering your time horizon- due to ‘n-1’ reasons & P/E as well as portfolio returns scale downwards due to such an external shock, how you would act.
  • What will keep the market’s excited about these names to keep P/E at similar levels till you plan to sell?
  • What are the levers for each story to achieve an earnings growth of ~ 25 +% CAGR (cushion for P/E derating before expected returns become unachievable) on long term basis?
  • What are the key risks to each story to act/react/ignore?

Note: Not an RA/IA and not an investment advice. Just personal opinions. As I do not hold any of these names, you shall discount my opinion accordingly!!!

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Here is latest portfolio, after clean-up. 10 stock portfolio.

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Hi…any changes in the portfolio

No further changes. Plan to keep 10-12 stocks portfolio for long term, with minimum churn.

Entered Dr Lalpath Labs and topped up few others in this downturn.

Portfolio looks like below now -

What about PPFAS Flexicap?

I have reduced SIP amount but continuing in PPFAS Flexicap. Currently only tracking stocks portfolio.

Sold Dabur and spread that amount to other stocks.
Current portfolio - 10 stocks

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Don’t you think hospital businesses like Narayana Hrudayalaya or HCG or Max Healthcare etc would have been better over Diagnostic business like Dr. Lalpath Labs ? Obviously, I am just trying to understand your logic nothing more

I have not compared Dr Lal with Hospital businesses. In Diagnostic business Dr Lal is leader and I feel they will continue to dominate this space. Added this in small proportion mainly due to price correction. Currently in watch mode and will decide more steps after seeing it’s business performance.