Ranvir's Portfolio

[ranvir]

FEDERAL BANK -

Q4 FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Key financial parameters -

Deposits @ 2.52 lakh cr, up 18 pc YoY

Advances @ 2.09 lakh cr, up 20 pc YoY

Gross NPAs @ 2.13 vs 2.36 pc

Net NPAs @ 0.6 vs 0.69 pc

PCR @ 71.08 vs 70.02 pc

Credit cost for FY24 @ 0.23 vs 0.40 pc YoY

Q4 NII @ 2195 vs 1909 cr, up 15 pc YoY

Other income @ 754 vs 734 cr

Fee income @ 620 vs 542 cr

PAT @ 906 vs 903 cr ( affected adversely due - Rs 162 cr being set aside for VRS settlement of employees )

Cost of funds @ 5.97 vs 5.21 pc YoY

Yield on Advances @ 9.48 vs 9.13 pc YoY

NIMs @ 3.21 vs 3.36 pc YoY

Segment wise loan / advance growth -

Retail - 20 pc

Agri - 28 pc

Business banking - 21 pc

CV/CE - 57 pc

MFI - 141 pc

Commercial banking - 27 pc

Corporate banking - 12 pc

High yielding segments include - Credit cards, Personal loans, MSME loans, CV/CE loans, Micro Finance. These segments are also the fastest growing ones. These segments combined form 24.6 pc of loan book vs 21.8 pc YoY - growth and asset quality in these segments is a key monitor able to be tracked

CASA ratio @ 29.38 vs 33.81 pc ( falling CASA is an industry wide phenomenon )

CASA + Deposits ( < 2 cr ) @ 80 pc of total deposits vs 85 pc YoY

Total branch count @ 1500, up by 140 branches YoY

In Q4, slippages were below the recoveries - a very very encouraging sign ( there were no one offs in recoveries ). Q4 slippages were at 352 cr vs 436 cr YoY

Expect fee income to keep growing @ 20 pc kind of rates for FY 25 as well

The rapid branch expansion is leading to increased growth in operating expenses ( even after accounting for one time VRS related provisions )

Aim to open a min of 100 branches in FY 25

Guiding for a credit cost of 30 bps for FY 25

Market conditions wrt garnering deposits continues to be tough. Should see cost of deposits icing up further - over next 1-2 Qtrs

Despite that, the bank is guiding for a 2-3 bps NIM expansion due greater focus on high yielding business

IT spends @ 6 pc of OPEX. Aim to take this to 8 pc of OPEX

Overall OPEX is likely to remain elevated due IT spends, branch expansion

Disc : holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Usha Martin -

Q4 FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Revenues - 829 vs 855 cr
EBITDA - 152 vs 154 cr ( margins remained stable at 18 pc )
PAT - 106 vs 105 cr

Segment wise revenues -

Wire Ropes - 607 vs 598 cr ( this is the high value add, high margin segment for the company )
Wire and Strand - 66 vs 79 cr
LRPC - 85 vs 105 cr

Wire Ropes - contributed to 71 pc of sales vs 67 pc YoY - indicating an improvement in quality of business

Export:Domestic sales breakup stood at - 55:45

EBITDA / Ton for Q4 @ Rs 31728. It remained in the 31k -34 k band throughout FY 24

Gross Debt @ 292 vs 347 cr YoY
Net Debt @ 124 vs 191 cr YoY

Wave - 1 capex at Ranchi facility is expected to commence commercial production in Q1 FY 25. New capacities are mainly focussed on company’s value added segments. Meaningful ramp up from this facility is expected in 9-12 months

Wave -2 of Ranchi capex ( company is spending 167 cr for this phase ) is expected to be completed in 18-24 months

Demand scenario remains stable. Order book is also healthy. However - since 85 pc of company sales are in the replacement segments, company is generally not too dependent on new order flows

Brunton Shaw - company’s subsidiary in UK is now sourcing from India and Thailand. This gives them a cost advantage of $300-400 / Ton which is critical. Brunton Shaw also has on order book of 6-8 months at hand

Because of logistical issues due red-sea disruptions, some of company’s sales have been pushed into Q1 - from Q4. Also due to planned maintenance of 06 weeks wrt LRPC making equipment, company lost production in Q4. But for these, Q4 growth would ve been higher

Expecting a 12-15 pc CAGR volume growth in FY 25,26

Rock Knitting wires - used in mountainous terrains is a lucrative opportunity both wrt volumes and margins. Company expects its capacities to make specialised Aluminium, Zinc wires for this segment to go live in FY 25

Saudi Arabia - Mkt demand is buoyant, plus it’s a large mkt. Oil/Gas, Infra, Ports - segments in Saudi Arabia are generating good demand for company’s products. Should start to contribute meaningfully to company’s revenues in FY 25

Synthetic Slings - is another segment that company is planning to launch wef Q2 FY25. To initially supply to UK, European mkts. It finds wide applications in Wind energy , Oil-Gas sectors

Aim to be around 20 pc kind of EBITDA margins in FY 25

LRPC segment is seeing pricing pressure due increased competition. Company is trying to focus more on the plasticated, galvanised LRPCs to protect its margins

Wave - 1 capacity coming on stream is around 40,000 MT/yr. Wave -2 capacities are around 10,000 MT/yr. Company sold around 1,80,000 MT in FY 24

Currently - US contributes to around 5 pc of sales. Targeting - manning ropes, elevator ropes and gondola ropes - as growth areas in the US mkt. Plus these r high margin products

Company is making very good inroads wrt new customer acquisition in EU mkts ( specially in oil/gas - offshore and wind energy segment ) - expecting to receive meaningful orders from new customers in next 2-3 Qtrs

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Innova Captab ( new listing ) -

Company overview and Q3 FY 24 performance -

Company operates in 4 business segments -

Contract manufacturer for domestic formulators

Branded domestic formulations

Branded international formulations

Sharon Bio business ( acquired last yr )

Manufacturing base -

02 plants at Baddi - both for formulations. Capable of making - capsules, tablets, ointments, dry powder injections, dry syrups, liquid orals. Overall capacity utilisation @ 50 pc

01 plant at Dehradun - acquired with Sharon Bio - its a formulations facility - can produce tablets and capsules.

01 plant at Taloja - acquired with Sharon Bio - Its an API manufacturing facility. Combined capacity utilisation at 50 pc for Taloja + Dehradun plants

01 Greenfield multipurpose plant is under construction at Jammu. Company is spending 350 cr for the same. Expected to go live in H1 FY 25. Full capacities to ramp up over a period of 2-3 yrs. Its a formulations plant mainly focussed on - Cephalosporins, Penicillin, Carbapenems product families. To make dosage forms like - tablets, capsules, dry powder injectables, dry syrup and respiratory respules

01 R&D facility at Baddi. Setting up another facility in Panchkula

14 out of top 15 Indian Pharma companies are Innova’s clients

FY 23 - segment wise business breakup -

Contract manufacturing - 680 cr
Domestic branded formulations - 166 cr
International branded formulations - 81 cr
Sharon Bio - 192 cr

Q3 FY 24 performance ( includes the benefits of Sharon Bio’s consolidation ) -

Revenues - 302 vs 242 cr, up 25 pc
EBITDA - 47 vs 37 cr, up 27 pc
PAT - 25 vs 19 cr ( up 28 pc )

Q3 FY 24 Concall highlights -

Company is the third largest contract manufacturer of formulations in India

Acquisition of Sharon Bio has given company an entry into regulated mkts like Canada, UK, Australia, EU

9M revenues of contract manufacturing services in FY 24 has been flat in FY 24. This is because of price deflation in API prices that the company had to pass to its clients

Sharon Bio is currently doing an avg annual revenue run rate of 180 odd cr. Without any further capex, Sharon Bio’s facilities can generate another 90-100 cr of annual sales which can increase further with not so capital intensive de-bottlenecking exercise

A large chunk of money raised via IPO has been used for debt repayment. It ll lead of annual interest savings of aprox 20 cr. The only debt that the company is now carrying is 235 cr for Jammu project. Company is eligible to receive interest rate subvention on the same from the Govt of J&K. Effective interest rate on this loan is as low as 2.5 pc

The Jammu facility is expected to be commercialised towards the end of Q1 FY 25. Expect good ramp up from that facility only by Q3 FY 25

Jammu facility has a peak revenue potential of > 1500 cr / yr. Likely to be achieved within 5 yrs. Expect to do > 300 cr sales from this plant in FY 26

Expect the company level margins to improve going forward as the capacity utilisation from existing facilities improve. The Jammu facility is eligible for GST refunds from the Govt. That should also help the blended margins when Jammu facility starts contributing meaningfully

As the regulations fro Govt wrt Quality controls, good manufacturing practises keep tightening, its advantage organised / large contract manufacturers like Innova Captab

Disc: not holding, not SEBI registered, may buy in future ( on dips )

[ranvir]

Bajaj Auto -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 11555 vs 8929 cr
EBITDA - 2284 vs 1657 cr ( margins @ 20 vs 19 pc )
Other income - 444 vs 595 cr
PAT - 2011 vs 1705 cr

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 44870 vs 36455 cr
EBITDA - 8762 vs 6465 cr ( margins @ 20 vs 18 pc )
Other income - 1704 vs 1703 cr
PAT - 7708 vs 6060 cr

Highest reported highest ever Pulsar, Three wheeler and KTM volumes in India in FY 24

In Q4, volume growth was 24 pc ( despite continued sluggishness in the export markets )

Export markets like Kenya, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Argentina, Egypt - continue to be under pressure due steep inflation and current devaluations

Other LATAM countries, ASEAN mkts continue to do well

To commence exports of Quadricycle - Qute to Egypt in Q1 FY 25 ( 3-wheelers were banned in Egypt - LY. Qute can capture a large Mkt in Egypt )

The manufacturing plant in Brazil to go online in Jun 25- should be able to address the pent up demand in Brazil

Company’s mkt share has improved by 800 bps ( 8 pc ) in the 125-200 cc category of bikes. Company is now no-2 in this category

Launched Pulsar -400 in first week of May 24. Company has 4 popular models in above 300 cc category ie - Pulsar 400, Dominar, KTM 390 and Triumph 400. This makes Bajaj Auto - the second largest player in this segment behind RE

Company’s 3 wheeler EVs are now avlb in 60 cities. Will double the no of cities covered by opening 90 new stores in Q1 FY 25 !!!

Chetak is now ranked no 3 in the EV scooters mkt. It started FY 24 at 6th rank and gained 3rd ranks within FY 24 ( mkt share up to 13 pc vs 5 pc YoY ). Chetak’s monthly sales have risen from 3k units / month to 12k units / month inside 1 yr

Bajaj Chetak is being sold through 200 showrooms across India. Company to ramp this up to 600 stores in Q1 FY 25. Will also launch another model of Chetak in Q1 FY 25

To scale up the Triumph business in H1 FY 25 by taking the total Triumph - stores count to 150 in India. Made in India Triumph’s exports are holding up well. Company exported 19k units of Triumph bikes from India in FY 24

Cash on books is around 16000 cr

To launch a CNG motorcycle in June 25

With PLI benefits, the electric three wheelers business is as profitable as ICE three wheeler business. However, electric two wheelers are yet to break even, despite PLI incentives. Company has undertaken a lot of cost reduction initiatives in this space. Additionally, the EV costs are structurally slated to come down. Assuming a stable selling price iro Electric Chetaks, unit economics should improve with every passing Qtr

Seeing good response for Triumph - 400 (both models) in domestic mkt

Company has set up a subsidiary - Bajaj Auto Credit Ltd ( an NBFC ) to finance 2 - wheeler sales. Aim to cover 100 pc of Bajaj outlets by end of FY 25. Have pumped in 2250 cr into the subsidiary

Disc: hold a small tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered

[saurabhgupta]

sir i learnt so much from your concall notes and really want to thank for giving us such a valuable content, hope you will continue the same and make us more knowledgeable.Sir i can understand the hardwork and continous efforts it take to provide such a valuable information to us, thank you from the bottom of my heart.

[ranvir]

Dr Reddy -
Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 7083 vs 6315 cr
Gross margins @ 58.5 vs 57.2 pc
EBITDA - 1872 vs 1534 cr ( margins @ 26 vs 24 pc YoY )
R&D expenses @ 687 cr ( @ 9.7 pc of sales - very healthy run rate )
PAT - 1307 vs 960 cr

Segment wise sales breakup -

North America - 3262 vs 2532 cr, up 29 pc

Europe - 520 vs 496 cr, up 5 pc

India - 1126 vs 1283 cr, down 12 pc ( due to divestment of certain brands in Q4 LY, adjusted for that - India business growth was a strong 17 pc )

Emerging Mkts - 1209 vs 1114 cr, up 9 pc

APIs + Pharmaceutical services - 821 vs 778 cr , up 6 pc

Entered into an agreement with Sanofi to market and distribute vaccine brands in India

Partnered with Bayer to distribute their heart - failure management brand in India - Vericiguat

Acquired - Menolabs. It has a well developed Women’s health and dietary supplements product portfolio in US ( has a portfolio of 7 branded products )

Entered consumer heath mkt in UK with the launch of allergy medicine - Histallay

Launched Bevacizumab - Dr Reddy’s first bio similar in UK

Launched - Nerivio - wearable migraine management device in Germany, SA

Strong growth in US business in FY 24 led by - increased volumes in base business, integration of Mayne Portfolio ( an Australian generics company, was acquired by Dr Reddy’s in the last FY ), new launches - partially offset by price erosions

Launched a total of 13 branded products in India in FY 24

Higher R&D spends for Q4 and FY 24 directed towards company’s development efforts to develop - small molecules of greater complexity and Biosimilars

Surplus cash on books @ 6500 cr

Formed a JV with Nestle India to roll out nutraceutical products like - health supplements for women and kids, metabolic wellness, hospital wellness etc in India and certain other agreed markets

Dr Reddy’s rank is IPM is at no 10

Among EMs, Russian sales grew strongly at 17 pc YoY growth in FY 24

Expect R&D investments to be aggressive in FY 25 as well. Broad breakup of these spends towards chemical molecules, bio molecules, APIs is 60:20:20. The clinical trials of Biosimilars does consume significant R&D dollars

Expecting Brazil, China business to clock double digit growth in FY 25

Company’s capex is mainly focussed towards building additional API and Injectable facilities

Timeline for the launch of Company’s first Biosimilar in US remains at FY 27

60 pc of branded generics sold by the company in India are made in-house. This percentage should go up in future

Increase in inventory levels in Q4 is a deliberate step by the company to insulate themselves from geo-political tensions / supply disruptions

Confident of continuing the double digit growth in India branded mkt. This is a key focus area for the company. Company aims to be in top 5 companies in the domestic mkt by 2030

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Kamat Hotels -

Q4 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 84 vs 80 cr
EBITDA - 23 vs 27 cr ( margins @ 27 vs 34 pc )
PAT - 2 vs 271 cr ( there were a number of one-offs in Q4 LY. basically PAT is not comparable )

Opened IRA by Orchid hotel in Ayodhya on the occasion of Ram Naomi. The property has 49 rooms, 02 Banquet halls. Already clocking an ARR of Rs 6800 at this property

Recently opened hotels - IRA by Orchid at Sambhajinagar, Nahsik, Orchid at Jamnagar are ramping up well

Company has repurchased its NCDs issued earlier at 21 pc interest rates and substituted them with a loan from Axis bank @ 10.75 pc

Current Debt @ 175 cr vs 327 cr YoY ( significant improvement )

Last year in Q2, the company sold its IRA by Orchid - Mumbai property for 125 cr to pare its debt. Post the sale, the company entered into a lease - rental agreement with the new owners and continued running the Hotel. Basically, the interest cost got converted to lease - rental. Hence there is a drop in EBITDA to that extent. Post payment of lease - rental, the company still made a 4 cr kind of EBITDA from this property in 5 months

Hotels slated to open over next 1-2 Qtrs - Orchid at Chandigarh, Dehradun, Toyam. IRA by Orchid at Bhavnagar, Noida

There was pressure on EBITDA - also because of increased employee costs due opening of new properties at Sambhajinagar, Jamnagar, Ayodhya

Company forecasts annual interest payments for FY 25 to be around 25 cr ( so … that should be around 6.25 cr / qtr )

Topline and EBITDA guidance for next FY at 400 cr and 140 cr respectively ( I hope they can achieve this … they have a tendency to over promise and under deliver )

32 pc of company’s revenues come from repeat customers - which is a healthy sign

Disc: holding, disappointed by the topline miss in Q4, hoping for a better performance in FY 25, biased, not SEBI registered

[saurabhgupta]

Screener is not showing the right debt and P/E ratio or am i missing something?

Debt- 175cr(Screener- 265)
P/E- 260/18=14(Screener P/E- 31)

[ranvir]

Kajaria Ceramics -

Q4 FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Revenues - 1241 vs 1205 cr
EBITDA - 171 vs 176 cr ( margins @ 14 vs 15 pc )
PAT - 104 vs 111 cr

Tiles sold @ 29.57 vs 28.02 MSM ( up 6 pc YoY )

Q4 Revenue breakup -

Tiles - Own manufacturing - 606 vs 599 cr
Tiles - Subsidiaries - 225 vs 231 cr
Outsourced - 259 vs 253 cr
Sanitaryware - 32 vs 18 cr
Plywood - 102 vs 90 cr
Adhesives - 14 vs 11 cr

Manufacturing capacities -

Ceramic wall and floor tiles - 36 MSM
Polished vitrified tiles - 15.4 MSM
Glazed vitrified tiles - 35 MSM

New plant in Nepal ( capacity @ 5.1 MSM ) expected to go live by Jul 24

Company has acquired a Tiles plant in Morbi
( Gujarat ) for 65 cr. It has a production capacity of 6 MSM

Commenced commercial production of sanitary ware from a new facility at Morbi ( current capacity at 4.5 lakh pieces / yr )

Going to spend Rs 15 cr to set up a manufacturing facility for adhesives in Gailpur in Rajasthan

Next 3 yrs guidance ( on a conservative basis ) -

Consol revenues > 6500 cr ( 5500 cr from tiles, rest from others )
Tiles manufacturing capacity @ 150 MSM
EBITDA is the band of 15-17 pc

Aggressively focussing on opening new exclusive branded stores in Tier -1,2,3 towns

To improve distribution to 2000 towns from 1000 towns at present

Generally see strong demand in a RE upcycle wef T+2. Current upcycle started in 2022. Expecting strong demand wef Jun this year

Expecting double digit volume growth in FY 25 ( 11-13 kind of band )

Gas prices continue to remain stable

Institutional : Retail sales mix @ 30:70 vs industry norm of 50:50. That’s why their margins are better

Break up of 30 pc of institutional sales - Govt projects : large builders : mid and small size builders @ 12 : 08 : 10

Institutional sales margins are 4-5 pc lower than retail sales margins

Disc : holding both Somany, Kajaria ceramics, not SEBI registered, biased

[ranvir]

Hi …

I am reasonably sure that the total debt figure for the company ( Kamat Hotels ) at the end of FY 25 is around that 175 cr mark

Can’t comment on the screener’s data

[saurabhgupta]

At the end of FY25 or FY24?

I also read in their May Presentation that they have debt of 175cr,i think screener data is not updated yet

[ranvir]

A total Debt of 175 cr at the end of FY 24 ( iro Kamat Hotels )

[ranvir]

CIPLA Ltd -

Q4 FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 6163 vs 5739 cr, up 10 pc YoY
EBITDA - 1316 vs 1174 cr ( up 13 pc YoY, margins @ 21 vs 20 cr )
PAT - 932 vs 522 cr

R&D spends @ 444 cr, @ 7.2 pc of sales

Segment Wise revenue break up -

India - 2417 cr, up 7 pc
North America - 1876 cr, up 11 pc
South Africa - 560 cr, up 26 pc
EMs - 830 cr, up 5 pc
APIs - 190 cr, up 40 pc

Total Debt @ 560 cr
Cash on books @ 8270 cr. Company is open to inorganic growth initiatives

Investments made in FY 24 -

Acquired Actor Pharma in South Africa for 400 cr. It has a portfolio of branded generics and OTC brands in SA

Got into a marketing and distribution partnership with SANOFI to distribute 06 of their CNS brands in India

Acquired OTC brand portfolio of IVIA beauty and Astaberry in India for 130 cr

Company has 21 brands ( branded generics ) in top 300 brands in IPM. These brands have a turnover > 100 cr each

Company has a booming Speciality - InLicensing business with FY 24 sales @ 761 cr. Last 5 yr CAGR here has been @ 39 pc

In addition, company has 5 OTC brands with sales > 100 cr / yr. These are - Omnigel, Nicotex, Prolyte ORS, Cipladyne, Cofsils

North American product pipeline -

Respiratory pipeline - 05 assets filed assets in last 12 months. Going to file 02 more assets in next 12-15 months. Major launches expected in next 12-15 months

Peptides and Complex generics - 12 assets already filed. Going to file 08 more assets in next 1-2 yrs. Multiple launches expected over FY 25-27

505(b)(2) assets - have filed 02 assets. Launches expected in next 1-2 yrs

Company has reached no 1 spot in the prescriptions business in SA

In India, Chronic portfolio’s share is now at 61 pc. Chronic business has a far superior gross margin profile vs Acute business

Company has hit 20 pc mkt share in Lanreotide
( injectable peptide - a 505(b)(2) products )and 13 pc Mkt share in Albuterol ( complex generic - inhaler ) mkt

Guiding for an EBITDA margin band of 24-25 pc for FY 25

30 pc of company’s total revenues come from Respiratory products

Company has set up a manufacturing facility in China. Have got US FDA approval for the same. Have spent aprox 430 cr to set up that facility. Also looking to penetrate / expand into the Chinese market

Company is likely to see 2 more years of strong Revlimid sales ie FY 25, 26

Company’s Pitampur and Goa plants are yet to resolve their USFDA issues ( warning letters ). Once company resolves these regulatory issues, there could be significant bump up in the US business ( company expects Goa resolution and commencement of supplies only towards the end of FY 25 )

R&D expenses to continue to remain in the band of 6-7 pc of revenues

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

ADF Foods (very bullish management commentary) -

Q4 FY 24 concall highlights -

Revenues - 153 vs 123 cr
EBITDA - 34 vs 24 cr ( margins @ 22.3 vs 21.5 pc )
PAT - 25 vs 16 cr

For Full FY 24 -

Revenues - 520 vs 450 cr, up 16 pc
EBITDA - 104 vs 80 cr (up 30 pc, margins @ 20 vs 18 pc)
PAT - 74 vs 56 cr, up 32 pc

Segmental performance -

Processed foods -

Sales - 132 cr, EBITDA - 36 cr ( margins @ 27 pc )

Distribution of Unilever brands (company distributes Red label, Knorr, Taj Mahal brands in international mkts) - Sales - 21 cr, EBITDA - 1.7 cr ( margins @ 8.2 pc )

Company is presently exporting its processed foods offerings to 55 countries

Ashoka brand ( company’s biggest brand ) revenues for FY 24 @ 254 cr ( 5 yr CAGR @ 29 pc )

Company expects the strong topline growth in Q4 to continue into the next FY

The Truly Indian - brand launched in US. Seeing descent traction

Expansion in Gross Margins due to mix change towards higher margin products

Both the brands - Truly Indian ( for International markets ), Soul ( for Indian markets ) continue to be in investment mode. Likely to remain like that for foreseeable future

Have been trying to list Truly Indian brands in American supermarket chains. Currently listed with 02 large chains giving the company access to about 350 retail outlets. In Germany, Truly Indian brand is available in over 1000 stores. In UK, its available in over 500 stores

Targeting > 20 pc topline growth for FY 25 !!! ( with better capacity utilisation, cost absorptions … this should led to an even better PAT growth )

Because of issues with supply chains wrt Red Sea crisis, EBITDA margins were adversely affected in Q4. Company is seeing return of normalcy wef Q1. This should further add to margins

Company intends / targets - Truly Indian brand to be as big as the Ashoka brand in 4-5 yrs. For soul brand, company is targeting > 100 cr sales in about 3 yrs

Company’s Surat manufacturing facility ( Greenfield capex ) is expected to be ready in 15-18 months

25 pc of company’s standalone top line comes from contract manufacturing for various brands. Company is in talks with multiple brands and they expect this B2B vertical to expand to 30 pc of sales in FY 25

Have lined up another 20 products for launch under the Soul brand in India in FY 25

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Sterling tools -

Company overview and FY 24 result analysis -

India’s second largest manufacturer of Fasteners for
Auto OEMs. Makes fasteners for Chasis, Engine and other Standard applications. Company ( through its fully owned subsidiary - Sterling GTAKE mobility ltd ) manufactures and sells Motor Control Units ( MCUs ) for EVs in India

Company’s mkt share of MCUs in 2 wheeler EVs @ 30 pc

Manufacturing facilities - 04 for fasteners and 01 for MCUs

Q4 FY 24 results -

Revenues - 269 vs 212 cr
EBITDA - 31 vs 22 cr ( margins @ 11 vs 11 pc )
PAT - 16 vs 8 cr

Full FY 24 results -

Revenues - 932 vs 772 cr
EBITDA - 108 vs 98 cr ( margins @ 12 vs 13 pc )
PAT - 55 vs 48 cr

FY 24 Revenues breakup -

Fasteners segment - 608 cr
MCU segment - 323 cr

Company has announced setting up of Greenfield capacity in India to make magnetic and electronic auto components in a JV with Yangin Electronics. Yangin is a major supplier to Kia and Hyundai Motor companies. Aim to generate a 200 cr/ yr kind of business from this initiative ( inside next 5 yrs ). A partnership with Yangin is expected to help company have firm visibility on orders from the Korean OEMs in India. Beyond the Korean OEMs, company will also target the Indian OEMs for these Electro-Magnetic components

EBITDA margins for Fasteners segment @ 14 pc and 7 pc for MCU segment for FY 24

MCU segment is expected to keep expanding margins gradually and reach the targeted 10-12 pc margins in 2-3 yrs

MCU capacity now @ 6 lakh units / yr. Company sold aprox 4 lakh units in FY 24

Revenue potential from fasteners segment is 750-800 cr / yr without any further CAPEX

Subdued performance in fasteners business in FY 24 is due to 17 pc de-growth in the business from Farm-Equipment / tractors business. Other segments like - Cars, 2-Wheelers grew steadily

An avg MCU costs aprox 8-12 pc of the cost of a two wheeler - depending on model to model

Company is the single source supplier of MCUs for all the 2-wheeler models that the company is supplying to ( this is a big deal - IMO )

Aiming to grow by 30 pc in the MCU segment in FY 25 ( Apr month sales were however subdued due ending of FAME-II subsidy scheme for EVs on 31 Mar 24. Expect a reversal going fwd )

Have lined up a capex of 60 cr for the fasteners and MCU businesses in FY 25. Plus there will be additional capex on the new JV ( amount not yet finalised )

Disc: bought a tracking position recently, biased, not SEBI registered

[hardik_shah1]

Hi

Are you invested here. Any key triggers/drawbacks that you can observe.

Company looks interesting. What would be the criteria that would stop you if you would want to invest at this price.

Thanks

[ranvir]

I think, ADF foods at CMP is a descent buy

Disc: its just my personal opinion, have bought recently, like the company and recent business momentum

[ranvir]

Concord Biotech -

Company overview -

Company has a portfolio of 25 Fermentation based APIs. Company enjoys 20 pc global mkt share in 05 of the molecules that it makes

Manufacturing facilities at 3 places - all in Gujarat. All three are zero liquid discharge facilities. All are USFDA approved

Total installed capacity @ 1250 Meter Cube

Most of the APIs produced by the company are backward integrated to KSM levels

API portfolio primarily comprises of - Immuno-supressants, Oncology, Anti-Infectives and Anti-Fungal APIs

Company ventured into the formulations segment in 2016. Enjoys the benefits of backward integration. Company mainly operates in B2B segment for exports and domestic mkts with some B2C component only in the domestic mkt. Currently the company is only into oral solids. Going to foray into Injectables in near future

9M FY 24 financial outcomes -

Sales - 698 vs 580 cr, up 20 pc ( API revenues @ 562 cr, up 7 pc. Formulation revenue @ 135 cr, up 135 pc )

EBITDA - 302 vs 218 cr, up 39 pc ( margins @ 43 vs 37 pc )

PAT - 213 vs 148 cr ( margins @ 30 vs 25 pc )

Q3 FY 24 financial outcomes -

Sales - 241 vs 241 cr
EBITDA - 106 vs 112 cr ( margins @ 44 pc 46 pc )
PAT - 75 vs 79 cr

Concall highlights -

Company insists that there can be Qtr-Qtr lumpiness in its business performance due frequent changes in Customer’s order uptakes. Hence, its much better to judge company’s performance on a YoY basis

Aim to introduce 8-10 new API products over the next 3-4 yrs in the Oncology and Anti-Infective spaces

The injectable formulations facility is likely to start commercial production wef Q1 FY 25. Should start contributing meaningfully wef FY 26

9M revenues of the company are up 20 pc. Continue to aim to grow @ 25 pc CAGR for next 5 yrs ( this should mean higher growth in Q4 !!! )

Aim to maintain the API:Formulations sale split at 80:20 in near future

Initially - planning to launch 8-10 backward integrated Injectable formulations ( backward integration in these injectables should be a significant advantage )

02 of company’s API facilities are operating at capacity utilisations of 36 and 18 pc respectively ( indicating significant scope for positive operating leverage )

Majority of company’s exports are Air-Shipped. Hence the Red Sea issue is not such a big concern

Company has invested around 200 cr in their Injectables plant. Should be able to do 400-500 cr of sales from this facility in 4-5 yrs

Disc: initiated a tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered, inclined to add only on dips as valuations may be rich

[ranvir]

Mankind Pharma -

FY 24 results and Q4 concall updates -

Q4 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 2441 vs 2053 cr ( up 19 pc )
EBITDA - 594 vs 419 cr ( up 42 pc, margins @ 25 vs 20 pc )
PAT - 477 vs 294 cr ( up 62 pc )

FY 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 10335 vs 8749 cr ( up 18 pc )
EBITDA - 2550 vs 1913 cr ( up 33 pc, margins @ 24.7 vs 21.9 pc )
PAT - 1942 vs 1310 cr ( up 48 pc )

Net cash on balance sheet @ 3260 cr

Three of company’s brands crossed 100 cr/yr revenues taking the total brands with > 100 cr/yr revenues to 23 !!! Another 40 brands generate sales > 50 cr/yr

Share of chronic portfolio increased to 37 vs 35 pc - thus helping margins. In-licensed Astra Zeneca’s Symicort to boost their chronic portfolio

FY 24 capex spends @ 390 cr

Domestic revenues @ 9522 vs 8453 cr ( up 13 pc )

Consumer healthcare / OTC business revenues @ 706 vs 692 cr. Sluggish growth in this segment due optimisation of channel inventories. Key brands include - Gas O Fast, PregaNews, AcneStar, ManForce, Unwanted72, HealthOK

Exports revenues in FY 24 grew by a whopping 175 pc from 296 to 813 cr YoY ( aided by one off opportunities in US ). Launched 4 new products in US taking the total products in US to 39

Mankind Pharma -

FY 24 results and Q4 concall updates -

Q4 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 2441 vs 2053 cr ( up 19 pc )
EBITDA - 594 vs 419 cr ( up 42 pc, margins @ 25 vs 20 pc )
PAT - 477 vs 294 cr ( up 62 pc )

FY 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 10335 vs 8749 cr ( up 18 pc )
EBITDA - 2550 vs 1913 cr ( up 33 pc, margins @ 24.7 vs 21.9 pc )
PAT - 1942 vs 1310 cr ( up 48 pc )

Net cash on balance sheet @ 3260 cr

Three of company’s brands crossed 100 cr/yr revenues taking the total brands with > 100 cr/yr revenues to 23 !!! Another 40 brands generate sales > 50 cr/yr

Share of chronic portfolio increased to 37 vs 35 pc - thus helping margins. In-licensed Astra Zeneca’s Symicort to boost their chronic portfolio

FY 24 capex spends @ 390 cr

Domestic revenues @ 9522 vs 8453 cr ( up 13 pc )

Consumer healthcare / OTC business revenues @ 706 vs 692 cr. Sluggish growth in this segment due optimisation of channel inventories. Key brands include - Gas O Fast, PregaNews, AcneStar, ManForce, Unwanted72, HealthOK

Exports revenues in FY 24 grew by a whopping 175 pc from 296 to 813 cr YoY ( aided by one off opportunities in US ). Launched 4 new products in US taking the total products in US to 39

Aim to continue to grow at 1.3-1.4 time the IPM growth. Company is ranked No 4 in IPM by value. However, its ranked no - 1 going by no of prescriptions ( this is a big achievement and goes to show the extent of company’s penetration among the doctor’s fraternity )

Actively looking out for high entry barrier - acquisition targets to utilise cash on books

Company expects OTC brands to grow in mid teens in FY 25 as one time inventory corrections are now over

Gross margins for full FY 24 at 69 vs 66 pc YoY - very health levels

Guiding for an EBITDA margin range of 25-26 pc for FY 25

The EBITDA margins for export business is comparable to company level EBITDA margins

Expect to grow export business in mid-teens in near future. Aim to get 5-7 approvals / yr in US

Expect 3-4 pc growth contribution in next FY from new product launches - as the company’s new product pipeline for FY 25 is exiting ( including 1-2 big in-licensing opportunities like Symbicort )

At present, only 15 pc of company’s portfolio is under NLEM

Mankind had acquired Panacea Bio’s formulations business in FY 22. That portfolio is growing > 25 pc CAGR. Overall, it has proven to be a very successful acquisition

Astra-Zeneca out-licensing its blockbuster drug to Mankind Pharma alone speaks volumes about company’s distribution and execution capabilities

At present, about 75 pc of company’s products are manufactured in house. Rest are outsourced

As the chronic share in overall sales keeps growing, EBITDA margins should improve over medium term

Aim to maintain the Domestic : International business mix at 90 : 10 in medium term. Not planning to acquire anything in the international mkts

Current field force strength @ 12500 with productivity @ 6.5 lakh vs 6.1 lakh YoY

Not likely to take on Debt beyond 6-7k cr if going for a major acquisition

Disc: hold a tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Somany Ceramics -

Q4 and FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Q4 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 732 vs 675 cr, up 8 pc
EBITDA - 79 vs 61 cr, up 30 pc ( margins @ 11 vs 9 pc )
PAT - 34 vs 24 cr ( up 39 pc )

FY 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 2577 vs 2465 cr ( up 4.5 pc )
EBITDA - 253 vs 189 cr ( up 34 pc, margins @ 10 vs 8 pc )
PAT - 97 vs 71 cr ( up 35 pc )

Breakdown of sales -

Own manufacturing - Tiles - 815 vs 833 cr
JV - Tiles - 771 vs 804 cr
Outsourced - Tiles - 611 vs 510 cr
Bathware - 267 vs 244 cr
Others - 59 vs 33 cr

It was a very tough year for the building materials industry

Only positive during FY 24 was the correction in Natural gas prices ( a key RM ). It fell from Rs 59 / cubic mtr to Rs 40 / cubic mtr ( yearly avg price ). This has helped boost margins

Capacity utilisation in FY 24 @ 86 pc, down by 1 pc vs FY 23. Capacity utilisation at sanitary ware @ 70 pc and @ 100 pc for faucets

Amounts spent on brand building @ 2.5 pc of revenues for FY 24. Aim to spend 3 pc of sales in FY 25

Current installed capacity of tiles @ 78 million Sq Mtrs. FY 24 sales @ 68 million Sq Mtrs

Aim to grow revenues in mid single digits ( with low double digit volume growth ) in FY 25 ( conservative estimate ) with 100-150 bps improvement in EBITDA margins

Aim to increase growth rates in the Bathware segment in FY 25

Only maintenance / routine capex is planned for FY 25 @ 50-60 cr

Company expects good growth in FY 25
( specially in H2 ) due booming RE mkts in India

GVT tiles contribution @ 34 pc for FY 24. GVT tiles realisations are better than Ceramic and polished vitrified tiles. Aim to take this share to 40 pc of sales in 2-3 yrs

There was a substantial dip in the exports mkt in Q4 which led to increased competition from Morbi players in the domestic mkt. However, exports have picked up in Apr-May. Also, company believes that the worst of pricing pressures may now be behind them. They do expect to clock in 11 pc kind of EBITDA margins for full FY 25

Q1 has been sluggish due elections. Expect a strong pick up in sales in H2

Somany’s margins are inferior to Kajaria’s because of Kajaria’s better product mix and operating leverage vs Somany

Company’s sales mix @ 80 : 12 : 08 - Retail : Govt Projects : Private projects

Don’t see any significant capacity addition at Morbi for next 12-18 months

Company’s Govt projects segment has been doing well. Expect the same to continue

Company is not on a hurry to add capacities. Incase there is a sudden surge in demand in H2 and beyond, they can always outsource the capacities and ample spare capacities are available at Morbi

Disc : holding, biased, carefully looking out for pricing pressures, not SEBI registered