Ranvir's Portfolio

[ranvir]

Godrej Agrovet -

Q3 FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Revenues - 2345 vs 2324 cr, up 1 pc
EBITDA - 171 vs 160 cr, up 7 pc ( margins @ 7.3 vs 6.9 pc )
PAT - 85 vs 67 cr, up 27 pc

Segment wise revenues -

Animal Feed - 1291 vs 1272cr, up 1.5 pc
Vegetable Oils - 355 vs 362 cr, down 2 pc
Crop protection- standalone - 172 vs 100 cr, up 72 pc
Astec Lifeciences - 51 vs 117 cr, down 56 pc
Creamline Dairy - 366 vs 348 cr, up 5 pc ( sale of Value added products grew by 20 pc )
Godrej-Tyson foods - 223 vs 280 cr ( due sharp fall in live bird prices )
ACI-Godrej JV - 610 vs 600 cr, up 1.7 pc

Percentage of sale of value added products in the Dairy business increased to 36 pc vs 32 pc YoY

Investing aggressively behind Astec’s CDMO business. Should yield good results in medium term

Expecting better margins in Animal feed business in Q4 on the back of better realisations. Realisations for 9M FY 24 @ Rs 1435 / Ton vs Rs 1200 / Ton for 9M FY 23. Expecting these realisations to improve further

Witnessed healthy growth in cattle feed and aqua feed business. Was partially offset by de-growth in poultry feed business

Astec’s CDMO revenues got deferred from Q3 into Q4. Expect a better outcome in Q4

Seeing recovery in live bird prices in Q4. This should aid growth in Godrej Tyson business. Should also help in the recovery in layer feed and poultry feed business

Astec’s R&D engine should start firing as we go fwd. Should help in both CDMO and enterprise business. Expecting to grow CDMO business @ 30-40 CAGR for next few yrs

Astec’s enterprise business continues to be under pressure. The overstocking of agrochemicals in global mkts was to the tune of 12-18 months of consumption. Complete inventory correction may take some more time

CDMO business steady state margins are 5-7 pc higher than enterprise business

Disc : hold a small tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Gufic Bio -

Q3 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 202 vs 177 cr, up 13 pc
EBITDA - 37 vs 34 cr ( margins @ 18 vs 19 pc )
PAT - 22 vs 20 cr

New launches -

Cavim ( Ceftazidine Avibactum - used against bacterial infections ) - receiving encouraging response

First company to launch dual chamber bags of Merofic ( used in severe bacterial infections )

First company to launch Dalbavancin Injection
( used against acute skin infections ) in India

Company maintained market leadership in 2 of its products - Polyfic ( Polymyxin - used against Urinary track bacterial infections ) and Micafung ( anti fungal injections )

Company’s Botuulinum Toxin brand - Zarbot
( used in chronic Migraine’s treatment ) is gaining good acceptance among neurologists in India

Have launched Guficin - to address recurrent implantation failures in the treatment of infertility. Early feedback indicates encouraging results

Sparsh division ( basically selling 90 + injectable molecules directly to 1000 + hospitals ) - has added 70 new hospitals each month in Q3

Indore Capex - progressing well. Capacity to have capacity to make 52 million lyophilised injections and 60 million liquid ampoule injections and 30 million liquid vial injections. This will be the world’s largest single site injectable facility

Segment wise sales -

Domestic formulations( 56 pc of total sales ) - Mainly led by critical care ( 38 pc of domestic sales ), 27 pc of domestic sales come from infertility division, rest comes from mass marketed products, cosmetic brands, Sparsh division

Critical care grew by 16 pc in Q3

Fertility division grew by 18 pc in Q3

Mass marketed products grew by 14 pc in Q3

International formulations( 18 pc of total sales )

Contract manufacturing( 23 pc of sales )

APIs ( 3 pc of sales )

R&D spends for next two years expected to be at around 9-10 pc of sales as the company commercialises new products from its Indore facility

Expect to commercialise the Indore facility by Q1 FY 25. Early plan is to shift a part of domestic business from Navsari facilities to Indore to de-bottleneck the Navsari facilities wrt International orders. By end of FY 25, expect capacity utilisation from Indore at around 25 odd pc as the facility will only be catering to domestic mkts. As they get global approvals in FY 26,27 - capacity utilisation is likely to improve rapidly

Have raised Rs 100 cr from Motilal Oswal MF via preferential allotment ( in Q3 FY 24 )

Already have backlog of orders from Brazil, Germany, Canada. The shifting of domestic production from Navsari to Indore should help company to meet these orders

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

ADF Foods -

Q3 FY 24 concall and results highlights -

A leading manufacturer and distributor of prepared ethnic foods with annual food processing capacity of 28000 MT at 02 manufacturing facilities - @ Nadiad ( Gujarat ) and Nasik ( Maharashtra )

Exporting to 55 countries, has 180 worldwide distributors, 02 warehouses in US

Exporting over 400 SKUs, 8 well known International brands

Flagship brand - Ashoka

New brand launches - Truly Indian, Soul

Legacy brands - Camel, Aeroplane

Q3 FY 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 129 vs 123 cr
EBITDA - 27 vs 27 cr
PAT - 19 vs 18 cr

9M FY 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 366 vs 327 cr
EBITDA - 70 vs 54 cr ( margins @ 19 vs 16 pc, overall very healthy margins )
PAT - 49 vs 40 cr ( PAT margins @ 13 vs 12 pc )

Company has 02 business verticals -

Food processing ( 80 pc of sales, Q3 EBITDA margins @ 27 pc ) - own product portfolio targeted at Indian Diaspora

Distribution ( 20 pc of sales, Q3 EBITDA margins @ 8 pc ) - agency distribution business for leading FMCG companies at an international level. Company distributes Unilever brands like - Taj Mahal, Lipton, Red Label, Knorr

Soul Brand - offers a wide array of Pickles, Sauces and Pastes - aimed at domestic Indian Mkts in Urban areas. Aim to make it a 100 cr brand in 3-4 yrs

Truly India brand - aimed at international mkts for customers seeking Indian flavours. Offers - ready to heat foods including vegan and vegetarian options

Camel Brand - premium brand aimed at Indians residing in Gulf countries. Includes - meal accompaniments, pastes, sauces. Drives 95 pc of sales through modern trade

Aeroplane brand - economy brand aimed at Indians residing in gulf countries. Includes - meal accompaniments, pastes, sauces. Drives 65 of sales through modern trade and 35 pc through general trade

Company continues to be debt free

Q3 sales were impacted by Red Sea crisis

Company invested an additional Rs 13 cr in its subsidiary Telluric foods to accelerate its India business growth ( under the brand - Soul )

Launched several new products under the Ashoka brand in Q3 in frozen foods, canned sweets and Indo-Chinese sauces categories

Capex spend for Q3 was Rs 7 cr ( 3.5 cr each towards de-bottlenecking and expansion of cold storage infra )

Looking to add some additional brands to the distribution business - in order to drive the distribution business’s growth

Company has recently tied up with Tesco ( UK based retailer ) for 3 of its SKUs. Aiming to drive > 8 cr sales from this tie up for next FY

**Expecting 15 pc kind of topline growth for full FY 24. Also expecting to recover sales lost in Q3 **
( due Red Sea issue )

Ashoka brand contributes to around 55-60 pc of company’s foods business ( ie - Ex - distribution )

Normal Capex lined up for FY 25 is about 3-4 cr. Additionally, the company intends to spend around 60-70 cr towards Greenfield capex over 15 months starting Apr 24

Freight costs @ 7 pc of standalone sales ie excluding the distribution sales ( in Q3 )

Aim to grow Ashoka brand @ 25 pc kind of run rate in FY 24

Soul brand is targeted at Urban areas - to upper middle class audience. Currently doing 5 - 6 cr of annual sales. Currently only selling via E-Commerce. Modern trade launch is lined up

Expect to do more than 100 cr of sales in the distribution business in FY 25

Company is having 140 cr of cash on balance sheet

Company is entitled to receive PLI benefits worth aprox 50 cr over next 3 yrs

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[anantsingh]

sir ,all things looking good .but price not moving as par guidance. how do we calculate fair value of any company

[ranvir]

SAMHI HOTELS -

Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Company profile -

Operate a total of 31 Hotels, 4800 rooms in 13 cities under 8 brand names

Upscale Hotel rooms - 1074. These include properties like -

Hyatt @ Gurugram, Pune
Sheraton @ Hyderabad
Renaissance @ Ahemdabad
Courtyard @ Bengaluru

Upper Midscale Hotel rooms - 2163. These include properties like -

Four Points @ Pune, Vizag, Jaipur, Chennai
Fairfield by Marriot @ Bengaluru (03 hotels), Coimbatore, Chennai (02 hotels), Hyderabad
Caspia @ Delhi

Midscale hotel rooms - 1564. These include properties like -

HIEX @ Pune (02 hotels), Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Nasik, Hyderabad, Gurugram, Chennai
Caspia Pro @ Noida

Q3 FY 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 268 vs 191 cr
EBITDA - 85 vs 62 cr ( margins @ 32 vs 33 pc )
PAT - (-) 74 vs (-) 80 cr ( There was an exceptional loss of 75 cr )

Continue to hold cash of Aprox 300 cr - to be used to reduce debt further to reduce the interest costs

Since company’s hotels are primarily in Metro cities, their weekday occupancies are higher than their weekend occupancies

Aim to take the rooms inventory to > 5400 rooms by FY 27

By Sep 24, company would have added 180 rooms to its existing portfolio of 4800 rooms. Plus company’s additional 130 renovated rooms will also come on stream by Sep 24. Basically, the company would drive revenues from additional 310 rooms which did not contribute in Q3 FY 24

Finance costs in Q3 were 65 vs 115 cr YoY. This is likely to reduce further

Company’s net debt now stands at 1800 cr vs 2900 cr in June 23

Current cost of debt stands at 10.3 vs 13 pc pre - IPO

Debt/EBITDA guidance for end of FY 25 @ 3.5 - signalling rapid debt reduction

A lot of company’s hotels are managed by Marriot group. They charge an avg of 4.9 pc of revenues as management fees

Company’s assets in Tier -1 cities are outperforming the Tier -2 assets by a wide margin

International travel is also picking up. However, still lower than pre-Covid levels

Company is very confident about demand trends for Hotels for next 2-3 yrs. Usual spoiler for hotel industry used to be over-supply. At present, an over-supply situation is not on the horizon for next 4-5 yrs

India is adding 40 million sq ft of office space every year. This is like adding one Singapore / year. This bodes very well for the Hotel industry in Tier - 1 cities

Company is likely to be in green at PAT level in Q4

Company is expecting ARR growth rates in double digits for next 2-3 yrs. This is likely to result in much higher EBITDA growth due operating leverage

Since the company is a business hotel focussed chain, the seasonality doesn’t hit them as much as Leisure hotel chains

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Which company are u talking about ???

[ranvir]

Dr Reddy -

Q3 concall and results highlights -

Revenues -7237 vs 6790 cr
Gross Margins @ 58.5 vs 59.2 pc
EBITDA -2023 vs 1939 cr ( margins @ 28 vs 29 pc )
PAT -1381 vs 1244 cr

R&D spends @ 556 cr ( @ 7 pc of sales, up 15 pc YoY )

Cash on books @ 5900 cr

Region wise sales performance -

North America - 3349 vs 3056 cr, up 7 pc
Europe - 497 vs 430 cr, up 15 pc
India - 1180 vs 1127 cr, up 5 pc
Emerging Mkts - 1283 vs 1309 cr, down 2 pc
APIs + Pharma Services - 783 vs 775 cr, up 1 pc

Acquired the branded portfolio of MenoLabs in US. Its focussed on women health ( basically - health supplements ). The portfolio consists of 07 brands mainly targeting the symptoms of menopause and pre-menopause

Entered into exclusive collaboration with Coya Therapeutics for development and commercialisation of COYA 302 ( a biologic ) - for treatment of Lateral Sclerosis

Hoping for a double digit growth in India business in Q4. Focussing on in-licensing and collaborations to bring innovative products to Indian Mkts. Company is investing significantly behind this initiative

Also launched the innovative - Wearable Medical Device - Nerivio in India in Q3. It’s used for treatment of Migraine. The device is worn on the arm and works on Remote Neuromodulation principles to alleviate migraine symptoms. The device transmits electrical pulses to achieve Neuromodulation. Its a USFDA approved treatment

Generics pricing declines in US are mild to moderate

Company has received 09 product approvals in the China Mkt. 03 of them were received in Q3

Company had earlier acquired Premama Wellness ( in 2022 ) in the US mkts - also focussed on Women’s health. The recent acquisition of MenoLabs adds to company’s presence in Women’s health in the OTC space. That’s where the company intends to expand even more

OTC sales in US already contribute to 10 pc of company’s US sales

Company has a product launch pipeline of 26-27 products to be launched in US over next 2 yrs. This pipeline consists of a healthy mix of ‘tough to make’ and ‘tough to develop’ products

Company intends to launch 06 biosimilars in US by FY 30. First biosimilar launch is planned in FY 27. Company also has a pipeline of additional biosimilars to be launched till FY 35

Dr Reddy’s acquired the US generics business of Australia based Mayne Pharma in Q4 FY 23 for $ 105 million. Company is happy with the acquired portfolio’s performance in US mkts

Company is investing behind building capacities in its CDMO business - which is small right now. But they are seeing good demand trends in the CDMO space

Company has invested a lot in the API and Formulation capacities for GLP-1 products ( these are peptide based medicines ). Intend to launch them across the world mkts ( depending on patent situations - country to country )

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

SUN PHARMA -

Q3 results and concall highlights -

Sales - 12381 vs 11241 cr, up 9 pc

EBITDA - 3477 vs 3004 cr ( up 15 pc, margins @ 28 vs 27 pc )

PAT - 2561 vs 2181 cr, up 19 pc

Region wise sales break up -

India Formulations - 3778 vs 3391 cr, up 11 pc

US Formulations - 3973 vs 3465 cr, up 13 pc

EM Formulations - 2094 vs 2115 cr, down 2 pc

RoW Formulations - 1779 vs 1556 cr, up 13 pc

API sales - 466 vs 515 cr, down 9 pc

EMs include - Romania, Russia, RSA, Brazil, Mexico

RoW Mkts include - Western Europe, Japan, Canada, Israel, NZL, Australia

R&D expenses @ 824 cr, @ 7 pc of sales

Company is ranked No-1 in India with 8.5 pc Mkt share and 32 brands in top 300 brands. Top 10 brands contribute to 18 pc of India sales

Total manufacturing facilities @ 43. Formulations facilities @ 29, API facilities @ 14

Company’s speciality products contribute to 17 pc of company’s topline ( mostly coming from US ) and are growing at rates faster than company growth rates. Currently, the company has a basket of 26 speciality products

Speciality products include -

Illumya
Winlevi
Levulan
Absorica
Odomzo
Cequa
Bromsite
Xelpros
Yonsa
Sezaby
Kapspargo Sprinkle

Speciality products Pipeline -

Deuroxolitinib ( phase -3 completed )
Illumya for Psoriatic Arthritis ( phase - 3 )
Nidlegy ( phase - 3 )
MM- II ( phase -2 completed )
SCD-044 ( phase - 2 )
GL0034 ( phase - 2 )

Net cash on books @ Rs 8200 cr ( Ex - Taro ). Net cash including Taro @ 18,300 cr !!!

Launched 28 new products in India in Q3. Seeing good traction in the in-licensed products portfolio in India

Illumya, Cequa and Levulan grew strongly in Q3. Growth in US was partially offset by ongoing USFDA related compliance issues at Mohali, Halol plants. Launched 03 generic products in US in Q3

Brazil and Romania business grew strongly in Q3

Global Speciality sales grew 26 pc in Q3 to reach 2100 cr in Q3. This represents 17 pc of company’s topline

Generic Revlimid sales in Q3 in US were muted

Supplies from Mohali plant likely to ramp up over next few months. At sub-optimal levels currently

Nidlegy’s ( for Skin Cancer ) Phase - 3 data in Europe is very encouraging. It should be a significant product for the company going forward

In Q3 in India, company’s volume growth was around 7 pc which is far higher than IPM

Looking to in-license products in the GLP-1 category for India Mkts. GLP-1s should be important products going forward in India. GLP-1 products like Ozempic, Wegogy are global blockbusters

Disc : holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[newinvestor1]

@ranvir Sir are tou tracking Sakar Healthcare?

[anantsingh]

sai silks (kalamandir)

[ranvir]

Bajaj Consumer -

Q3 FY 24 and concall and results summary -

Sales - 239 vs 230 cr
Gross margins @ 53 pc ( flat YoY )
EBITDA - 36 vs 32 cr ( margins @ 15 vs 14 pc )
Other income - 11 vs 10 cr
PAT - 36 vs 33 cr

Segment wise sales break up -

Almond Drops Hair oil @ 81 pc of company sales
Grew volumes in mid-single digits, flat value growth

Other Products @ 19 pc of company sales
Reported a value growth of 35 pc in Q3 and 25 pc in 9M FY 24

Urban demand continues to be better than rural demand

International business grew by 30 pc in 9M FY 24. Africa grew by 22 pc, Nepal grew by 27 pc, RoW ( US, Canada, Malaysia ) grew by 61 pc in Q3 FY 24

Have launched brand extensions of Almond Drops in other categories like - Soap, Shampoo, Conditioner, Body lotion - on E-comm and modern trade. Seeing promising response

Continue with the distribution expansion of Bajaj Coconut oil - driving volume growth

Launched Bajaj Gulab Jal in Q3

Expecting that the International business should sustain high growth rates in near future. International business now contributes to > 5 pc of sales vs 2 pc of sales 18 - 24 months back

Aim to keep EBITDA margins in the range of 16-18 pc range for near future

Have been very selective wrt selecting distributors in the GCC and North African countries

The new products that company launches have GMs in the range of 45-50 pc ( barring a few exceptions )

A new product is considered successful, if it is able to reach 50 cr/yr kind of sales after 3 yrs of launch. Company invests aggressively behind brands that are likely to achieve these numbers. If a product is not tracking well enough to reach this scale, the company drops that product. Coconut Oil is one of the product that’s likely to reach 50 cr / yr kind of run-rate. Some of the new serums / lotions are also doing well

Company did an additional 8 cr secondary sales over their primary sales ( as a part of inventory correction ). Otherwise, topline would have grown by an additional 3 pc or so

Disc: not holding, not SEBI registered, only for educational purposes

[ranvir]

Laurus Labs -

Q4 FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Sales - 1440 vs 1381 cr
Gross Margins @ 49.8 vs 49.7 pc
EBITDA - 259 vs 287 cr ( margins @ 18 vs 21 pc )
PAT - 76 vs 103 cr

Full Year R&D spends @ 241 vs 211 cr ( @ 4.8 pc of sales )

Segment wise sales -

FDFs - 430 vs 367 cr - volume led recovery in ARVs + new launches in US

APIs - 745 vs 714 cr - led by strong growth in Onco APIs

CDMO - 236 vs 228 cr

Bio - 29 vs 46 cr

Full Year breakup of sales -

ARV - APIs + FDFs - 50 pc
Non ARV APIs - 20 pc
Non ARV FDFs - 10 pc
CDMO - 18 pc
Bio - 2 pc

Capex spends in over last 3 yrs @ 2600 cr. Currently, the company is operating at 0.9 X - asset turns vs its 5 yr avg of 1.1 X asset turns. As this improves, so shall the profitability. FY 24 capex @ 700 cr

Company’s CDMO business has -

70 + active projects under various phases for small molecule APIs

10 commercial projects

20 + active projects for animal APIs

1 active crop protection

Onco APIs reported highest ever Qtly sales at 147 cr in Q4. Cardio, Diabetic API segments are reporting good sequential recovery

Seeing greater RFPs from big Pharma for late stage CDMO products

Animal API facility has started commercial validation batches. Crop science CDMO unit is under construction. Both Crop science and animal API CDMO facilities are already fully committed with innovator companies

Net Debt @ 2368 cr. Likely to come down going forward

These days, there is greater demand for bio-catalysis and continuous flow chemistry from big Pharma due to their ESG commitments. Laurus has built good capacities for both these manufacturing techniques

Additionally, there is clearly a greater thrust from big Pharma to diversify away from China. Same is reflected in greater late stage enquiries that the company is receiving

Capex plan for FY 25 - should be spending around 700-800 cr mainly towards CDMO and Bio business

Likely to see significant revenues from animal API CDMO contract in FY 25. Expecting CDMO business to be 33 pc of total business in next 2-3 yrs !!!( this can drive significant value creation … imho )

Disc: hold a tracking position, intend to add more on dips or in case of CDMO business pick up, not SEBI registered, biased

[ranvir]

Gabriel India -

Q3 FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Sales - 814 vs 711 cr, up 14 pc
EBITDA - 70 vs 51 cr ( margins @ 8.8 vs 7.2 pc - significant improvement )
PAT - 43 vs 30 cr

Cash on balance sheet @ 213 cr

Capex in Q3 @ 17 cr. For 9M FY 24, Capex @ 50 cr

Segment wise sales break up -

2W/3W - 61 pc ( enjoy 32 pc mkt share in domestic mkts )
Passenger Cars - 24 pc ( enjoy a mkt share of 24 pc in domestic mkts )
Commercial vehicles - 13 pc ( enjoy a mkt share of 89 pc in domestic mkts )
Trading - 2 pc

Channel wise sales break up -

OEM sales - 86 pc
After market sales - 12 pc
Exports - 2 pc

Company’s yearly export sales @ around 95 cr. Aim to ramp up exports going forward. Expecting to win some good orders for supplies to 4W and 2W products in the exports mkt in near future
Some popular car models using Gabriel’s shock absorbers - Jimmy, Grand Vitara, Brezza, Thar, Bolero, XUV 700, Hyryder, Kushq, Taigun

Company is a leader in Electric 2W segment. Popular models that they r supplying to include - TVS I-Cube, Ola - S1 pro, Ather 450x, Ampere Magnus. EV 2-wheeler mkts grew by 34 pc in Q3. Overall 2W sales grew by 19 pc

Future pipeline for passenger vehicles -

VW - 1 product
Tata Motors - 4 products
Mahindra - 3 products
Stellantis - 2 products

Company has won the Bajaj Platina business in Q3. Were not supplying to this model, previously

Have won orders for Ola - Motorcycle, New EV products of Suzuki, TVS

Have won orders for Swift - as alternate supplier. This is a very high volume product. A second source supplier generally gets 30 pc of the total volume

Supply of locomotive dampeners to railways is a small but fast growing business

Company entered the Sun-Roof market in May 23 by collaborating with Inalfa Roof Systems ( a Dutch company ). Its a JV with Gabriel India holding at 49 pc. Company has started supply of sun roofs for new Creta in Dec. Full scale production started in Jan 24. Inalfa holds 25 global mkt share in Sun-Roof mkt

Have got orders for SunRoofs for a new KIA model to be launched in 2025

Two global OEMs have recently visited company’s facilities in Dec-Jan. Expecting break-through with both the companies within FY 25

EBITDA margins in SunRoofs are likely to be in Double digits. Even at a company level, company intends to be making double digit EBITDA margins by FY 26 - this can potentially lead to a big bump up in profitability

Company is developing electronic suspensions. The avg selling price of these suspensions is 3X of a normal suspension. However, the ramp up here is expected to be slow

Disc: added recently, tracking position, not SEBI registered, biased

[ranvir]

Surya Roshni -

Q3 FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Sales - 1938 vs 2021 cr ( down 4 pc )

EBITDA - 158 vs 164 cr ( down 3 pc, margins stable @ 8 pc )

PAT - 90 vs 90 cr

Witnessed slowdown in demand for value-added products in steel pipes segment, flattish growth in lighting and consumer durables segment. However, lighting and consumer durables reported smart margin recovery

Debt reduced by 168 cr in 9M FY 24. Debt / Equity now @ 0.12

Segment wise results -

Steel pipes division -

Sales - 1536 cr, down 6 pc

EBITDA - 121 cr, down 11 pc

EBITDA/Ton @ Rs 6156 vs 6733. It was Rs 5104 in Q2. Sequentially, there is good improvement here

PBT - 91 vs 104 cr

Weak domestic demand for value added products

Exports registered a healthy 23 pc growth in Q3

Have an order book of 600 cr from Oil and Gas sector

Lighting and consumer durables division -

Sales - 403 cr, up 2 pc

EBITDA - 38 vs 27 cr, margins @ 9.3 vs 6.9 pc

PBT - 30 vs 19 cr

PLI led backward integration carried out by the company helped them improve margins

Professional lighting continues to grow strongly led by Govt’s thrust on infrastructure

Lighting and CD division is now debt free

Steel Pipes manufacturing facilities -

Bahadurgarh, 53 acres

Anjar, 96 acres

Gwalior, 51 acres

Hindupur, 17 acres

Lighting manufacturing facilities -

Kashipur, 26 acres

Gwalior, 44 acres

Company is largest exporter of ERW pipes from India. Company is also No-2 lighting brand in India - mainly focussed on rural / semi urban areas

Steel pipes division’s product basket includes - ERW pipes / GI pipes, API pipes, CR strips, Black pipes, Hollow Section pipes

Company is likely to be completely debt free by end of Q4 FY 24

Expecting strong order flows from GCC region, Canada for its Pipes division

Exports are contributing to 18-20 pc of steel pipe division sales. EBITDA/Ton in exports is far higher @ Rs 9000-10000 / Ton

Expecting Q4’s EBITDA/Ton to be better than Q3

Company is actively thinking about a de-merger to unlock value - as the company is quite undervalued

Company is the leader in Large Diameter pipes, API pipes in India. Their products in these segments command a premium pricing of 6-8 pc over its peers - which is a very big deal in the pipes business. The company has earned this through 40 years to hard work

Guiding for an EBITDA of Rs 600 cr and revenues of 7800-8000 cr for FY 24. Expecting a topline growth of 15 pc in FY 25

Lighting business was very difficult over last 2-3 yrs. Things are now looking up. Should be better going forward

Company’s biggest strength in lighting business is their captive manufacturing base

Company’s margin profile should improve further as the percentage of exports increases as a percentage of total business

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Syngene International -

Q4 FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 917 vs 994 cr
EBITDA - 317 vs 314 cr ( margins @ 35 vs 32 pc )
PAT - 189 vs 179 cr ( due lower tax outgo on account of tax reversal from previous FY )

For full FY 24 -

Revenues - 3490 vs 3193 cr
EBITDA - 1014 vs 942 cr
PAT - 510 vs 464 cr

Fourth Qtr performance was lower than expected - driven by reduced demand for research and development services within US biotech stemming from a weak funding environment. This - however is showing signs of recovery. According to Jeffries, $ 23 billion fresh funding went into US’s biotech sector in last 12 weeks

Cash flow from operations was very strong @ 1042 cr for FY 24. This cash flow fully funded the capex and acquisition of biologics manufacturing plant of Stellis Biopharma

Increased wind / green energy usage is helping the company save a lot of money on power and fuel costs

Capex for FY 24 stood at Rs 455 cr. Plus the company acquired Stellis Bio’s plant for 700 cr

Expect a high single digit to low double digit topline growth for FY 25. Most of the growth is likely to be back ended ie in H2 FY 25. This growth guidance includes ramp up in Mangalore API facility. However, the Stellis’s manufacturing facility ramp up is not expected in FY 25

Capex for FY 25 expected to be around Rs 500 cr - 60 pc towards discovery services and 40 pc towards CDMO services

J Hunt ( CEO ) said - he can literally sense that big Pharma is diversifying away from China - both for discovery and CDMO services. Moving away development and manufacturing from one geography to another is far more difficult vs moving away discovery services

Company is supplying the drug - Liberla to Zoetis. Its a 10 yr contract for supply @ $ 50 million / yr

Seeing increasing visits / enquiries from global Pharma majors towards Indian CDMO / Drug discovery companies over last 12 months - in a move away from China

Disc: holding since 2022, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Eveready Industries -

Q4 FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Q4 financial outcomes -

Sales - 280 vs 286 cr
EBITDA - 25 vs 1 cr ( margins @ 9 vs 0.3 pc, QoQ margins improved from 8 to 9 pc )
PAT - 8 vs (-) 14 cr

FY 24 financial outcomes -

Sales - 1314 vs 1328 cr
EBITDA - 140 vs 110 cr ( margins @ 11 vs 8 pc )
PAT - 67 vs 28 cr

Flattish topline - because of continued weakness in the rural demand and pricing de-growth in LED lighting mkt

Company continues to be the Mkt Leader in Zinc-Carbon batteries with 53 pc Mkt share. In alkaline batteries, company has been a late entrant with a current Mkt share of 10 pc

Company’s focus in the lighting business is on rural and general trade focus

Advertisement and Promotion spends @ 10.2 pc of sales in FY 24

Alkaline batteries and rechargeable flash lights witnessing strong growth. Traditional flashlights continue to witness a volume decline

LED Lighting industry saw price led de-growth in FY 24

Guiding a high single digit topline growth for FY 25 with continued margin expansion

Breakup of revenues -

Batteries ( both alkaline + Zinc ) - 64 pc ( 94 pc of batteries business comes from Zinc-Carbon segment, Alkaline segment is only 6 pc of the business currently )
Flashlights - 13 pc ( Battery operated vs Rechargeable split @ 60:40 )
LED lighting - 23 pc

Segment wise volume growth in FY 24 -

Zinc - Carbon batteries - (-) 3 pc
Alkaline batteries - 71 pc
LED lighting - 20 pc plus ( however, there was a steep price decline )

Company feels that the worst of pricing declines in the LED mkt may over now

Company is expecting new GoI mandated standards for rechargeable batteries to be out very soon. This should help ward off the non-complaint unorganised and Chinese competition

Aspire to grow the lighting business by 20 pc
( price + volume ) in FY 25. Also expect LED lighting business to break even in FY 25. Company

Company estimates, flashlights mkt to be @ 1200 cr or so. Company is 20 pc of the Mkt. Company estimates that 70 pc of this mkt is still unorganised

If the growth in Alkaline batteries sustains, company may contemplate setting up its own manufacturing facility. Company already makes Zinc batteries, flashlights in-house

Zinc-Carbon battery is more of a rural product - hence witnessing a demand slowdown

Aim to double their Alkaline batteries business in FY 25 ( after a 70 pc growth in FY 24 ). Company’s base in alkaline batteries is still low

Current EBITDA margins for batteries business @ 15 pc, Flashlights @ 9 pc, LED lighting is slightly negative ( likely to break even in FY 25 )

Once the company starts in-house manufacturing of Alkaline batteries, the EBITDA margins of the Alkaline segment are likely to go up by 8-10 pc !!!

Intend to launch another product category in FY 26-27

LED lighting business currently has a gross margin of 35 pc

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

AMCs comparison -

         HDFC  vs   NIPPON  vs   ABSL AMC

AUM - 6.1 lk cr vs 5.2 lk cr vs 3.3 lk cr
Mkt Share - 12.1 pc vs 7.9 pc vs 6.2 pc
Equity AUM - 54 pc vs 49 pc vs 46 pc
Retail Mix - 71 pc vs 61 pc vs 52 pc
B- 30 share - 19 pc vs 20 pc vs 17.5 pc
SIP Book @ - 2.9k cr vs 2.3k cr vs 1.25 k cr

This data also explains the probable reasons for relative valuations of these AMCs

[ranvir]

Nippon Life AMC -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Size of MF industry @ 55 lakh cr vs 40 lakh cr YoY - witnessing very strong growth

This is aprox 19 pc of GDP vs a world avg of of 60 pc of GDP - representing significant headroom for growth

No of unique MF investors in India @ 4.5 cr - 3.2 pc of total population ( showing under penetration )

MF unique investor base has increased @ 29 pc CAGR over 2020 -24

Segment wise breakup of MF industry ( total size @ 55 lakh cr ) -

Equity - 58 pc
Debt - 19 pc
Liquid - 11 pc
ETFs - 12 pc

For Nippon AMC - Equity share @ 49.2 pc, ETF share @ 25.9 pc

Client wise break up of MF industry -

Retail - 27 pc
HNIs - 34 pc
Corporate - 39 pc

For Nippon AMC - retail Mix @ 30 pc

Geography wise break up -

Top 30 cities - 82 pc
Beyond T-30 cities - 18 pc

For Nippon AMC - top 30 mix @ 80 pc

Industry’s monthly SIPs have hit 19k cr / month in Mar 24 vs 14k cr / month in Mar 23. SIP’s AUM stands @ 10.7 lakh cr vs 6.8 lakh cr in Mar 23

Nippon AMC’s AUM @ 5.24 lakh cr - currently India’s 4th largest AMC. Mkt share @ 7.9 pc, up 73 bps YoY. Investor base @ 1.6 cr

Nippon AMC’s avg SIP book @ 2300 cr / month

Company enjoys a 16.7 pc mkt share in ETFs, up 135 bps YoY

Distribution Channel -

80 National distributors - 20 pc of AUM
94 banks - 23 pc of AUM
1.01 lakh MF distributors - 57 pc of AUM

Q4 fy 24 financial outcomes -

Revenues - 468 vs 348 cr
EBITDA - 281 vs 199 cr
Other income - 92 vs 39 cr
PAT - 342 vs 198 cr

Financial investments on company’s books as on 31 Mar 24 @ 3932 cr ( 395 cr are in equity MFs, rest in Debt MFs / bank FDs )

Total number of company branches across India @ 192

Company witnessed 4th consecutive Qtr of Mkt share gains in Q4

Company’s mkt share in incremental SIPs @ a whopping 15 pc !!!

Nippon Gold ETF continues to be the biggest ETF in the Industry. Launched two more ETFs in Q4 - Bank and IT index funds

Digital transaction increased by 2X YoY in Q4

AIF continues to be an important area of future growth for the company. Aggressively launching new funds in this area

Dividend for FY 24 @ Rs 16.5/share !!!

Company’s future investments shall be focussed on Digital platforms, branding / marketing and acquiring new skill sets to ramp up AIF business

Seeing good traction in their Multicap, Largecap and Value funds - which is a good thing as it helps company diversify away from their best performing small cap fund

70-75 pc of company’s SIP book constitutes of folios investing less than 10k/month/fund

ESOP costs for next 4 yrs expected to be around 80 cr. Half of this would be incurred in FY 25

Disc : holding, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Maruti Suzuki -

Q4 concall and results highlights -

Revenues - 38471 vs 32214 cr
EBITDA - 5221 vs 3894 cr ( margins @ 14 vs 12 pc )
Other income - 1261 vs 850 cr
PAT - 3952 vs 2688 cr

Sales volumes - 5.84 lakh vs 5.14 lakh cars ( up 13.5 pc ). Export sales @ 78k vs 64k cars

EBITDA margins expansion led by - increased capacity utilisation, lower sales promotion expenses

Full yr sales volumes @ 21.35 vs 19.66 lakh cars ( up 9 pc )

Utility vehicles sales volumes grew by a whopping 75 pc @ 6.42 lakh cars in FY 24

Segments that de-grew include - Mini ( down 39 pc ) and compact ( down 4 pc )

Indian car mkt grew 8 pc YoY to cross 40 lakh car sales. India is now the third largest car market in the world

The shift in consumer preference towards SUVs continued in FY 24

The share of Hatchback segment is down to 27 pc, down from a high of 49 pc in FY 19

Share of CNG vehicles continues to rise. Now at 15 pc of total PV market !!!

EV and Hybrid cars currently at 2 pc mkt share each

Maruti Suzuki’s exports for FY 24 stood at 2.8 lakh cars. Company is also the largest car exporter from India. Exports grew by 10 pc YoY

Grand Vitaraa became the fastest car to clock 1 lakh car sales in the Industry

Company increased its solar power generation capacity from 26 MW to 43 MW in FY 24. Aim to take it to 48 MW in FY 25

Aim to cross 40 lakh cars / yr production target by 2030 ( almost double of current capacity )

CNG car sales for the company were around 4.5 lakh cars in FY24. Next yr, they are targeting a sales of 6 lakh CNG cars. Bulk of CNG sales come from Ertiga

First time buyers in FY 24 @ 43 pc of sales. Rest were replacement and additional car buyers

Committed to the Hybrid technology. Initially focussed on bigger cars like - Grand Vitara, Invicto. If volumes in these categories sustain, will invest in R&D to roll out Hybrid technologies in compact cars as well

Company did face supply challenges in the CNG segment in Q4 ( due some component shortage ) because of which some sales have been deferred. Current bookings / backlog of CNG deliveries stand at over 1 lakh vehicles - mostly Ertiga. Total - company level bookings currently stand at 2 lakh vehicles

Royalty payments to SUZUKI stand @ 3.5 pc of sales

Design - Launch timelines for new vehicles remain at 4 yrs

Disc: hold a small tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

RPG Lifesciences -

Q4 concall and results highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 127 vs 118 cr ( up 7 pc )
EBITDA - 22.4 vs 17.8 pc ( up 26 pc, margins @ 17.6 vs 15 pc )
PAT - 13.2 vs 10.4 cr ( up 28 pc )

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 582 vs 512 cr ( up 14 pc )
EBITDA - 135 vs 107 cr ( up 26 pc, margins @ 23.3 vs 21 pc )
PAT - 87 vs 67 cr ( up 30 pc )

Segment wise performance for FY 24 -

Domestic branded formulations - 390 vs 340 cr ( up 15 pc ). New products ( launched after FY 19 ) contributed to 25 pc of sales. Sales force productivity crossed 5 lakh

International formulations - 106 vs 92 cr ( up 15 pc ). New products ( launched after FY 19 ) contributed to 30 pc of sales

APIs - 85 vs 79 cr ( up 7 pc ). Company hopes to ramp up API segment growth into double digits - going fwd

Company’s leading brands in India formulations market include -

Azoran ( immunosupressant )
Aldactone ( Diuretic - used to treat high BP/ heart failure )
Lomotil ( used to treat diarrhoea )
Naprosyn ( potent painkiller )
Serenace ( anti-psychotic )
Norpace ( used to treat abnormal heart rhythm )

Manufacturing facilities -

02 - formulations facilities @ Ankleshwar. Unit -1 caters to domestic and emerging mkts. Unit -2 caters to developed mkts

01 - API facility @ Navi Mumbai. Company makes the APIs of immunosuppressants in-house

In Q4, company’s secondary sales grew by 19 pc vs Industry growth of 6 pc !!!

Naprosyn and its line extensions - touched 75 cr sales in FY 24
Immunosuppressants portfolio - touched 70 cr sales in FY 24

Company aspires to take both these portfolios beyond 100 cr sales each

Cash on books @ 127 cr - actively looking at M&A opportunities ( cash build up has happened despite spending 140 cr for modernisation of one of their formulations and API facilities over last 2 yrs )

Company has traditionally been a laggard wrt chronic therapy sales. Have identified Derma, GI, Cardio, metabolic disorders - as key focus areas to ramp up their presence in chronic therapies. The ramp up shall however take time as the incumbents are well entrenched

The Jan-Aushadhi Kendra led Generic-Generic medicines do pose a long term threat to the company. However, if the manufacturers supplying to Jan-Aushadhi Kendras were to comply with the WHO GMP / Other quality standards, their product costs shall rise materially and be comparable to branded generics

When the company launches a new product in the Mkt, its manufacturing is generally outsourced. Only when its volumes build up beyond a certain scale, the company brings its production inhouse

Some countries to which company is exporting to are facing forex shortages. Hence the Govt’s there are resorting to import restrictions which is reducing company’s export growth rates. Still, Pharma Industry is one - which is the last one to face such restrictions

Company has identified new APIs for in-house manufacturing. Aim to launch these by FY 26 - should lead to better growth rates in the API vertical

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered