Rakesh Arora has already been silently contributing at VP.
Fortunate that we could unearth him in time to cover Commodities/Steel Cycle decision-making aspects.
With Rakesh’s help and guidance VP Community is sure to work towards more Actionables in the Steel sector - with a more focused approach.
Please feel FREE to share your feedback and ask questions directly of @Rakesh_Arora
Mastering the Steel Cycles.pdf (6.5 MB)
Thank you for sharing. any chance there is a video recording too?
No recordings done.
@Rakesh_Arora
Can we request you to self-record a zoom session presentation commentary using same ppt 
.
And upload a link here?
That would be great @Donald
Or can also do a live webinar if @Rakesh_Arora is open to it. That way he can take some questions too. Would be happy to volunteer for logistics / planning.
Happy to do a webinar any time.
Indeed a good presentation , thanks
Tata Steel Q4FY 23 results
Analysts believe that International steel cycle has bottomed out during Q3 FY23. This is evident from the improving EBITDA per Tonne realisation.
Has the webinar happened already?
Hi Rakesh (@Rakesh_Arora) : Request you to share or point to any source to know the upcoming steel capacities of the big names such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel etc. in the near future [by 2027] along with their existing India capacities. TIA.
I think, company presentations are the best source, as they outline their capex plans. Or if u have access to broker reports, some of them give free access like Prabhudas Liladhar, Moti Lal etc. They would give 3 year forecasts on volume.
Below is the demand supply projections for Indian Steel Sector by Kotak Securities. They are forecasting a drop in capacity utilisation as steel companies ramp up capacities together. Normally this would not have been a problem but given aggressive exports by China, steel prices can remain muted for longer.
Hi @Rakesh_Arora , What do you think on this commentary which is doing the rounds now?
What is the impact going to be for Indian steel companies due to Chinese dumping ?
Do you think the value added players stand to get benefitted from the slump in prices ?
The world’s biggest steel producer sounded the alarm about a crisis in China that carries the potential to send global shock waves, warning of a deeper industry downturn than major traumas in 2008 and 2015.
Conditions in China are like a “harsh winter” that will be “longer, colder and more difficult to endure than we expected,” China Baowu Steel Group Corp. chairman Hu Wangming told staff at company’s half-year meeting.
Global investors are lasered onto China’s struggling economy, even as they also contemplate the possibility of a recession in the US, with the Federal Reserve moving toward interest rate cuts. For commodities including steel, the warning from Baowu underscores risks to demand and prices, as well as what ArcelorMittal SA, the industry No. 2, called an “aggressive” surge of exports from China.
China’s steel market — by far the world’s largest — is flashing multiple warning signs as the protracted property downturn shows no signs of ending, while factory activity remains subdued. Baowu alone produces about 7% of the world’s steel, and its commentary is closely tracked to guage the market mood in the Asian nation.
Hu’s stark message will likely be a worry for rivals across Asia, Europe and North America as they grapple with a fresh wave of Chinese exports, often by pushing for trade measures. Shipments from China are on track to reach about 100 million tons this year, the highest since 2016, as producers there scramble to offset a domestic slowdown.
German steel giant ThyssenKrupp AG on Wednesday highlighted the industry’s challenges by reporting a big slump in earnings. Earlier this month, ArcelorMittal said China’s rising exports had put the global market in an “unsustainable” condition.
Iron ore futures in Singapore fell as much as 3.4% to $95.20 a ton, the lowest level since May last year. The rout in steel markets was even more marked, with rebar futures in Shanghai plunging more than 4% to the cheapest level since 2017. BHP, which gets much of its revenues selling iron ore to China, fell nearly 3%.
Read More: China Steel Sector’s Malaise Deepens With No Relief in Sight
China’s country’s steel industry suffered devastating slumps during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, and again in 2015-2016. In both cases, the crises were ultimately resolved by massive stimulus — a prospect that looks more remote in 2024 as President Xi Jinping bids to reshape the economy.
Baowu didn’t offer much on the causes of the current downturn, focusing on how employees should respond: by preserving cash and minimizing risks.
well conditions are tough and excess capacity in China can’t be wished away. If iron ore prices fall globally, India’s competitive advantage will reduce too. Countries will try to put anti dumping duties but unless there is a blanket import duty on all imports round tripping will happen. Hoping that losses being incurred by Chinese steel mills will prompt them to cut production and at the same time Chinese govt could provide some stimulus. No signs of them at the moment.
Another dictum which is doing the rounds is ~ FED rate cut will lead to metals doing well.
As per my understanding, US accounts for less than 10% steel usage worldwide with China accounting for about 50%. There is no way US can compensate for China depression in Steel usage.
And FED is cutting rate to avoid recession and not to come out of recession.
Western countries are more consumption oriented rather than infrastructure oriented.
Hence, FED rate cut may not translate into industrial metals gain.
Fed cut, Democratic party’s profligacy and geopolitics can have lollapalooza for precious metals.
My two cents.
