Rain Industries - An oversold de-leveraging play

I agree with @Srinidhi_Adiga. We are still in a wait-and-watch situation.

My brief notes from the Transcript of Management Presentation, 10-May-24.

Medium- to long-term prospects are promising:

  1. Carbon segment: Q2-2024, signs of market stabilization >> potential return to normalized margins in the latter half of the year.

  2. Announcement of a new, US green-aluminium smelter from CPC and CTP customer, Century Aluminum. First new smelter built in the US in 45 years.

  3. Aluminium industry contributed about 38% of consolidated revenues. Expect this to return to its normal range of 45%-50% of revenue next quarter.

  4. Increased import quota based on Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) ruling. Rain’s quota of Green Petroleum Coke (GPC) import raised from 1.4 to 1.9 million tons per annum.

But short term pain to continue:

  • Foresee correction in certain key raw material prices, which will directly impact financial recovery.
  • Quota implementation for GPC import at the SEZ plant is pending regulatory steps. Ramp-up expected once clarified.

I have no position in the stock at the moment. Am waiting for the results to catch up with expectations.

Am looking for holes in my understanding. So please feel free to critique. And as always, DYODR.

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So in a quarter we may see 19 rs of eps for Fy25?

I guess their normal earning range will be aprox 250cr PAT and rs 4-5 Eps/ quarter…
benefit of incremental production and its margin advantage is what we need to wait and see.

RAIN anticipates
finally being able to ramp-up the Indian operations to higher capacities,
which would allow us to significantly improve the overall performance.
Part of the import relaxation was to increase the import quota of Green
Petroleum Coke or GPC from 1.4 million tons per annum to 1.9 million
tons per annum.

Such strong words of assurance is rare with rain management, hence we are hopeful they can achieve some good numbers in another 6 months, Once CAQM order is implemented.

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Anyone here has any info or news about Rain Industries.

There was sudden surge in the volumes today(good sign)

I tried to look out for info (if any)

Came across this tweet from yesterday (8th of July)

Tweet

No official announcement from rain industries though.

Appreciate if anyone here as any info regarding this.

Lets see how long it holds 172 levels

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Hi Rahul, yes he’s right they have officially got the permission/Allocation for importing GPC as per CAQM order in their SEZ plant as well as DTA but regarding the CPC import (for blending and re-exporting to middle east smelters) has been further deferred as they will form a separate committee to reexamine the decision taken by CAQM. Attaching two documents which I came across, let me know what’s your understanding based on these 2 documents (kindly check the date of meeting to understand in a better way).

120.9 (recent/latest meeting on 5th or 6th of July)

image
DOC-20240602-WA0002.pdf (3.0 MB)

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(post deleted by author)